by Peter Schrager

Last Week's Record: 11-2
Overall Season Record: 78-38

Sunday's 1 p.m. ET games

Falcons running back Michael Turner will try to run past the Redskins on Sunday. (Chris Graythen / Getty Images)

Washington at Atlanta: Welcome back, Michael Turner. The Falcons' running back had the breakout game Atlanta fans (and fantasy football owners who drafted him third overall back in August) had been waiting for, putting up 151 yards and a touchdown in Monday night's loss in New Orleans. Look for Turner to do more of the same against the beleaguered Redskins on Sunday. When Turner has 19-plus carries, his teams are 14-2 (.875). He'll get fed the rock 20-plus times, and that record will be 15-2 after Sunday.
The Pick: Falcons 27, Redskins 13

Arizona at Chicago: I feel like Eminem (or just a guy who likes making dated rap references from 10 years ago), but will the real Arizona Cardinals please stand up? After beating the snot out of Seattle and New York on the road, the Cards were blown out by the Carolina Panthers at home last Sunday. The Bears, meanwhile, enjoyed the NFL's version of the perfect hangover cure last weekend: The Cleveland Browns. Expect a close one — three years after the famous "They are who we thought they were" game — and for the Bears to find a way on Sunday.
The Pick: Bears 28, Cardinals 24

Baltimore at Cincinnati: Quick, name the AFC running back that leads the conference in rushing yards since last December. Ronnie Brown? Nah. LaDainian Tomlinson? No. Maurice Jones-Drew? Nope. Dating back to last December, Cedric Benson — yes, Cedric freakin' Benson — leads the AFC with 1,002 rush yards on 227 carries (4.4 avg.). Benson aims for his second consecutive 100-yard rush game vs. Baltimore. It won't be easy. The Ravens' defense came out of their bye week last Sunday looking hungry, looking angry and looking nasty vs. previously unbeaten Denver. Gimme the Birds in an AFC North slugfest on Sunday.
The Pick: Ravens 20, Bengals 16

Houston at Indianapolis: Dating back to '08, the Colts have a franchise-record 16 consecutive regular-season wins and can tie the 1933-34 Chicago Bears (17) for the third-longest such streak in NFL history with a win on Sunday. Meanwhile, Jim Caldwell is off to the second-best start in the past 80 years for a rookie head coach, trailing only Potsy Clark (8-0) of the 1931 Portsmouth Spartans. Which leads to the pressing question of the week: Why isn't there anybody named Potsy anymore?
The Pick: Colts 38, Texans 17

Kansas City at Jacksonville: The last time the Chiefs played the Jaguars in Jacksonville, Jags wideout Cortez Hankton caught a 14-yard touchdown with 45 seconds left to beat Kansas City, 22-16. Cortez Hankton! Yes, the Cortez Hankton! I like the Jaguars in a cake walk on Sunday. Even without Cortez Hankton. Look for diminutive Mike Thomas, the Pac-10's career leader in receptions, to have a breakout game. Also look for Larry Johnson to lay off the Twitter.
The Pick: Jaguars 37, Chiefs 13

Miami at New England: Here's your upset pick of the week, folks. Miami trekked up to Foxboro last year and shocked the football world by Wildcattin' the Patriots into a 38-13 victory. In three career starts against division opponents, Chad Henne is 3-0 and has completed 46 of 69 passes (66.7 percent) for 468 yards with four touchdowns vs. zero interceptions. With the running game leading the way, Henne will get the best of a certain other ex-Michigan gunslinger on Sunday.
The Pick: Dolphins 30, Patriots 24

Green Bay at Tampa Bay: Cadillac Williams had career highs in attempts (37) and rushing yards (158) in his only meeting with the Packers back in 2005. But that was a different Packers team, and that was certainly a different Bucs squad. Rookie Josh Freeman could get eaten alive by the Dom Capers-led 3-4 defense on Sunday. Survivor pool players, here's your lock of the week.
The Pick: Packers 24, Buccaneers 14

Sunday's 4 p.m. ET games

Carolina at New Orleans: Seeing Drew Brees dismantle respectable opposing defenses week after week is like watching a great artist paint a different mural every time he picks up a palette. But Sean Payton is just 1-5 in games vs. Carolina, and Panthers quarterback Jake Delhomme is 8-2 as a starter vs. his former team. Don't expect Carolina to just roll over and let Brees paint a Jackson Pollock on them in this one, but in the end, I see New Orleans racking up their eighth win.
The Pick: Saints 31, Panthers 27

Detroit at Seattle: The Maurice Morris Bowl! That's all I got for this one. Oh, and Lions kicker Jason Hanson has 1,784 career points and needs 16 to reach 1,800. So keep your eyes glued to this one for those two riveting sub plots.
The Pick: Seahawks 27, Lions 24

Will Sunday be another dark day for Eli Manning and the Giants? (Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)

San Diego at New York Giants: The last time these two teams played in East Rutherford, it was the infamous Giants Stadium "Snowball Game" of 1995. The Chargers won that one, 27-17, in what was arguably one of the darkest days in the history of Giants football. Look for the Big Blue faithful to be their usual selves on Sunday — classy, but critical and extremely disappointed with a fourth straight Giants loss.
The Pick: Chargers 27, Giants 13

Tennessee at San Francisco: For as awful as the Titans have been over the past 10 months, they're still riding a five-game winning streak against the NFC. Look for Jeff Fisher to get the best of his former Chicago Bears teammate Mike Singletary in an upset on the road Sunday. Chris Johnson outshines Frank Gore in this meeting between two of the league's best young running backs. Tennessee's back, folks! Well, kinda.
The Pick: Titans, 30, 49ers 20

Sunday night

Dallas at Philadelphia: When I chose the Eagles to win the NFC East prior to the start of the season, it was because of veterans Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook and Asante Samuel. Little did I realize then that it would be Brent Celek, Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson — four guys under the age of 24 — leading the way. Tony Romo's been on fire of late, but the Eagles' defense will get the best of him Sunday night.
The Pick: Eagles 34, Cowboys 28

Monday night

Pittsburgh at Denver: Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is 4-0 in Monday night games, and Pittsburgh's looking to win its fifth straight after a somewhat rocky 1-2 start to '09. The Denver bandwagon emptied a bit after their 30-7 loss in Baltimore last weekend. How quickly that can happen. After a Monday night defeat, it may be all but barren. Save those train tickets, though, folks. They could end up being collectors items someday.
The Pick: Steelers 28, Broncos 13

Reader E-mail of the Week

Peter,

I noticed that you did very well in your NFL picks this week, and I wanted to see if you'd be willing to talk to my husband in regards to his office pool. He needs your help! He needs your advice! Though I love him very much, he's horrible at this. Thankfully, the pool is just for fun. For the record, in case you print this e-mail in your column, he also can't cook or mow the lawn very well. Other than that, he's great.

I'm a happy and satisfied wife ... I swear! I just would love to see him get some of his NFL picks right!

— Lauren, Kirkland, Wash.

Lauren,

I have three rules in life:

1. Never work out next to the sleeveless guy in the gym.

2. Never eat a plate of scrambled eggs before a long cross-country flight.

3. Never lend advice to a man whose wife is e-mailing random Internet sports columnists about his shortcomings.

See rule No. 3 above and just direct him to the Cheat Sheet!