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PATRIOTS GAME DAY PREVIEW

by By KAREN GUREGIAN , The Boston Herald


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FOXBORO -- Some occurrences in Football are almost automatic. Like Tom Brady finding Wes Welker at least once during a game. Joey Porter providing bulletin board material. Vince Wilfork getting double-teamed. Bill Belichick winning after a bye week.

All four apply today, but perhaps none more than the latter, as the Patriots come off their bye week to host the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium. As they do, it's certainly hard to ignore the record. The Pats have gone 7-2 the week following the bye during Belichick's tenure, with six straight wins. The only losses came in 2000 (vs. the Bills, 16-13, in OT) and 2002 (vs. the Broncos, 24-16).

It must be more than coincidence. Surely, Belichick's reputation as a strategist and master planner figures into the equation.

Former Patriots tight end Christian Fauria believes that tenet.

``He's a really good game-planner, and if you give someone like him an extra week to prepare, he's going to find every last weakness, every last little niche they can exploit or take advantage of,'' said Fauria, now working as an analyst and a co-host of WEEI's ``NFL Sunday'' pregame show. ``I don't think it has as much to do with the players. They're recovering mentally and physically while the coaching staff and Belichick are doing all the work.''

Then the players implement what Belichick and his staff have devised to take down a particular opponent, in today's case, Miami.

And no matter what the plan calls for, they all buy in. Fauria did when he donned Patriots colors from 2002-05 under Belichick.

``I just think he's a great coach. He has that advantage on other coaches,'' Fauria said. ``He just knows more, regardless of what talent he has. Look what he does? He just keeps finding ways to win.''

That's what the best coaches do. They find ways to win -- especially when they have time to dig. Philadelphia Eagles coach Andy Reid actually trumps Belichick with a perfect 11-0 mark on games following bye weeks. New York Giants coach Tom Coughlin, on the other hand, hasn't been as successful with a 7-6 mark.

So how will Belichick take down the Dolphins? What secrets has he discovered that will allow his team to toy with Tony Sparano's crew, like so many Dolphins at Sea World, today?

Belichick's standard operating procedure is to attack an opposing team's strengths, and neutralize them. That means he won't let the Wildcat offense beat him. Nor will kick return wizard Ted Ginn Jr. do what he did to the Jets. With the advantage of two weeks in the Football laboratory, those two Miami strengths will likely be off the board.

``The first tape they put on this week was Ted Ginn on special teams,'' Fauria said. ``That's where the emphasis is. The Wildcat is a little tougher (to defend), but I think they'll pretty much handle it. He'll make sure everyone (on defense) is accountable for their gaps and responsibilities.''

According to former Patriots safety Rodney Harrison, there is much more to it than just concocting the right X's and O's to take down the post-bye opponent.

Harrison said Belichick's focus wasn't merely on tackling the next foe and devising a bulletproof game plan. The scrutiny more importantly turns inward, at the Patriots themselves. And, according to Harrison, now an analyst with NBC, that's where Belichick is at his finest. While many shrug off the self-scouting angle of a bye week, this element is where Belichick reigns supreme, in Harrison's estimation.

``When I played there, it was always, 'What can we do to better ourselves? What can we do to get better as a team?' '' Harrison said of the bye week routine. ``That was more important than evaluating the Miami Dolphins -- or whoever it was -- that came up after the bye week. Bill does one of the best jobs at internal evaluation, self-scouting. That's the key right there. Seeing the tendencies. `How many times are we passing the ball? How many times are we running the ball? How many times are we throwing screens? How many times are we blitzing? How many times are we showing 4-3? How many times are we showing 3-4?' During the bye week, it was breaking tendencies so teams can't read us. It's coming out fresh. I'm telling you, it's huge.''

Said 20th-year veteran Junior Seau: ``You just can't give a guy who is so good at what he does two weeks to prepare. It's almost not fair. He can really dissect it. Obviously his track record proves it.''

--kguregian@bostonherald.com

THE CHECKLIST

Karen Guregian breaks down today's matchup:

Edge to:

Defense - Patriots

Special teams - Dolphins

Passing - Patriots

Rushing - Dolphins

Coaching - Patriots

The skinny: Bill Belichick has had two weeks to plot against Miami's strengths. That means Ted Ginn Jr. and the Wildcat won't have much, if any, success.

Score: Patriots 27, Dolphins 13

Dolphins AT Patriots

TODAY -- 1 p.m., Gillette Stadium, Foxboro

TV/RADIO -- Ch. 4 (Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf); WBZ-FM 98.5 (Gil Santos and Gino Cappelletti)

THE RECORDS -- The Patriots are 5-2, atop the AFC East, 1 1/2 games ahead of the Jets and two games ahead of the 3-4 Dolphins.

RECORDS VS. SPREAD -- Patriots 4-3, Dolphins 3-4

LINE -- Patriots by 10 1/2 (over-under 46 1/2 points)

SERIES HISTORY -- Though Miami leads the all-time series, 49-38, the Patriots have seized the upper hand in this century, winning 10 of the last 15 meetings.

HOW THEY RANK IN THE NFL

Patriots OFFENSE - Ranks third in the NFL (averaging 406.0 yards per game), 14th in rushing (115.0 ypg) and second in passing (291.0 ypg). Ranks sixth in scoring (28.3 points per game).

Patriots DEFENSE - Ranks sixth in the NFL (allowing 285.7 ypg), 15th vs. the run (109.4 ypg) and fifth vs. the pass (176.3 ypg). Ranks third in points allowed (14.0 ppg).

Dolphins OFFENSE - Ranks 23rd in the NFL (305.4 ypg), third in rushing (153.4 ypg) and 29th in passing (152.0 ypg). Ranks 13th in scoring (25.1 ppg).

Dolphins DEFENSE - Ranks 17th in the NFL (328.4 ypg), sixth vs. the run (92.4 ypg) and 21st vs. the pass (236.0 ypg). Ranks 23rd in points allowed (25.3 ppg).

INJURY REPORT

Patriots : OUT: WR Julian Edelman (forearm), DE Jarvis Green (knee), T Matt Light (knee), RB Sammy Morris (knee), RB Fred Taylor (ankle); QUESTIONABLE: DT Ty Warren (ankle), TE Benjamin Watson (back), CB Jonathan Wilhite (illness); PROBABLE: QB Tom Brady (right shoulder), WR Randy Moss (shoulder). Dolphins: DOUBTFUL: LB Channing Crowder (shoulder), DT Jason Ferguson (elbow).

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