by By IAN R. RAPOPORT , The Boston Herald

When the Patriots defenders look past center Jeff Saturday, they'll see Manning waving his arms, yelling, audibling, running to teammates, pushing them around, and then repeating it. Or, he could be saying meaningless words.

Eventually, he'll call for a snap and turn into the performer who has won three NFL MVP awards, a Super Bowl trophy and a future spot in Canton.

Your brain spinning yet?

``Be a little careful of trying to overanalyze that,'' Patriots defensive coordinator Dean Pees cautioned yesterday. ``You've got to play the play. If you're disciplined, you do what you're assigned to do in any defense, it's going to work. If you don't, then it won't.''

That's the task. Making matters more complicated is that while Manning is doing his dance, the Patriots front line must simultaneously be relaxed and poised to attack.

``Any time the quarterback is up there, no matter what he's doing, you've got to be ready on defense for the ball to be snapped,'' Pees said. ``(If) you fall asleep thinking, `Sit around here and wait on him,' he knows how to handle that: Get the ball snapped. You're going to pay attention to what he's saying because he's doing a lot of talking, but at the same time, don't get too caught up in that.''

It's a catch-22 that has baffled opponents since Manning began conducting the Colts orchestra after exiting the University of Tennessee in 1997. This year, he is 221-for-313 (71 percent) for 2,545 yards with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions, while being sacked just seven times.

Even with unknown receivers such as Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie taking the place of departed Marvin Harrison and injured Anthony Gonzalez alongside stars Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, little has changed.

``Offensively, they look as potent as ever,'' coach Bill Belichick said.

The Pats mission is one left unaccomplished by the rest of Indianapolis' opponents: Stop Manning and earn a win.

``He's the ultimate quarterback,'' cornerback Leigh Bodden said. ``He checks out of every play he's in to go to a better play. And he can put it on the money. He's one of the best.''

Key among the goals is keeping their own plans to themselves.

``Any clues you give him,'' linebacker Adalius Thomas said, ``he'll pick up on it.''

Over the years, as the Colts (8-0) have taken four of the last five games from the Patriots (6-2), the 6-foot-5, 230-pound Manning has thrived in every way.

He's taken it slow, allowing a defense to settle in, then picking it part. He's sped it up, keeping opponents gasping for air while jogging his offense down the field. And so on.

``They know how to pretty much beat everything and they have their ways of doing it,'' Belichick said. ``Whatever defenses you run, that'll trigger concepts that they'll use against them. They want to see where you're at and then they'll go ahead, go to work and dissect it.''

Pees searched his memory bank over his six years in New England and came up with one time the Pats shut down Manning. That was in the 2003 AFC title game, when Manning went 23-of-47 for 237 yards with one touchdown and four interceptions in the snow.

``Every other time, we may have slowed them down some,'' Pees said, ``but we can never say that we really stopped them.''

With a young-but-surging defense, there is an opportunity Sunday vs. Manning.

``You don't know how good you are,'' cornerback Shawn Springs said, ``until you face him.''

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