Week 15 Cheat Sheet

Week 14 saw a Brandon Marshall record-breaking performance, yet another eye-opening day out of Chris Johnson, and Day One of the Keith Null era in St. Louis. New Orleans and Indy each improved to 13-0, Randy Moss and the Giants' defense took days off, and the Jets and Dolphins won big road games in Florida. What’s in store for Week 15?

Let’s dig in to this week’s Cheat Sheet:

Thursday night

Indianapolis at Jacksonville: The Colts have now won an NFL-record 22 straight regular-season games. Last season, had San Diego not A) been given the home field despite winning four fewer games than Indy last year, or B) won the overtime coin toss in that playoff game, we could very well be looking at a 13-0 Indy team riding a 25-game win streak and looking to defend a second Super Bowl crown in three years. But that’s neither here nor there. No reason to look at the past; just the future. And that future? Well, it’s 14-0. The Pick: Colts 27, Jaguars 16

Saturday night

New Orleans at Dallas: Sean Payton was an assistant in Dallas under Bill Parcells from 2003-05. Think Dallas fans would take him as an offensive coordinator this year? Perhaps. At 35.8 points per game, New Orleans scores more than any other team in the NFL. Dallas, meanwhile, continues to struggle in December. Ah, December. What’d the Counting Crows sing? “It’s been a long December?” Hell yes, it has. And yes, that was indeed a Counting Crows reference. Dallas is 5-10 in games played during the calendar year’s 12th month since 2007. The ‘Boys’ December woes continue for another week. Almost makes you feel bad for Mr. Jones. (Another Counting Crows reference ... I’m sorry.) The Pick: Saints 42, Cowboys 31

Sunday 1 p.m. ET games

Chicago at Baltimore: Jay Cutler has 3,023 yards and is just the fifth Bears quarterback to reach the 3,000-yard mark in a season. He also happens to lead the league in interceptions with 22, and has been one of the greatest disappointments of the season. Baltimore, meanwhile, still has a playoff pulse. Look for another big day out of Ray Rice, another big day out of Billy Cundiff and another maddening day of mayhem for Jay Cutler in Charm City. The Pick: Ravens 26, Bears 13

New England at Buffalo: Gimme Fewell, Gimme Fire! Another win for the Bills last week in a surprisingly exciting game out in Kansas City. New England’s win over Carolina, meanwhile, was anything but inspiring. Randy Moss gave up, the offense sputtered and the Pats escaped a near home loss to a guy named Matt Moore. If there was some sort of economic model or scientific PowerPoint chart to show these two teams right now, Buffalo would be peaking and New England would be sinking. Let’s make things interesting in the AFC East. Give me the up-and-coming Bills in an upset at home. The Pick: Bills 30, Patriots 24

Arizona at Detroit: With a win, Arizona clinches the NFC West and back-to-back division titles for the first time since 1974-75. Kurt Warner has 97 TD passes with Arizona and needs just three more to join Fran Tarkenton (Vikings and Giants) as the only two players in NFL history with 100+ TD passes with two different teams (102 with St. Louis). Warner should get those three in the first half on Sunday. The Pick: Cardinals 42, Lions 17

Cleveland at Kansas City: Eric Mangini is 2-0 against the Chiefs all-time. Yes, Eric Mangini has a winning record against a team. Amazing, I know. Say what you want about the state of Cleveland Browns football, the team put together an impressive performance last Thursday night vs. the defending champs. Mike Furrey was playing receiver and defense, undrafted free agent Chris Jennings scored his first touchdown, and some guy named Evan Moore made you ask, “Kellen Who?” I loved what I saw out of the Browns last week. I loved them so much, I think they’ll lose by only three touchdowns this weekend at Arrowhead. The Pick: Chiefs 38, Browns 17

Atlanta at New York Jets: Ask any longtime fan of Gang Green, and they’ll tell you — these are the exact types of games the Jets lose. Just when you start looking ahead to Indianapolis and the prospect of an AFC East division title or a wild-card berth, the Jets lose a game at home to a team that’s already all but eliminated from the playoff race. Whether it’s Chris Redman or Matt Ryan, I think Atlanta finds a way on the road on Sunday. The Pick: Falcons 23, Jets 9

San Francisco at Philadelphia: This Eagles offense is downright scary. The most horrifying part? Brent Celek, Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy, and DeSean Jackson — Philly’s top four playmakers — are all under 24. I liked what I saw out of San Fran’s young foursome — Smith-Gore-Crabtree-Davis  but just can’t see Philly losing this one at the Linc. The Pick: Eagles 24, 49ers 16

Houston at St. Louis: The Keith Null Era has begun in St. Louis! Hide the women and children. The 2009 sixth-round draft pick out of mighty West Texas A&M threw five interceptions in his first career start and the Rams lost 47-7. Null’s college position coach? None other than Ryan Leaf. Would it be OK for the Rams to have multiple first-round picks next April? Like seven or eight. They need them. Houston wins easily. The Pick: Texans 34, Rams 13

Miami at Tennessee: Forget all the Chris Johnson stats for a moment. Ricky Williams needs just 25 rushing yards to set the NFL record for longest span between 1,000-yard seasons. The last time Ricky broke the 1,000-yard rushing mark was 2003. As for Mr. Johnson, well, he’s pretty good, huh? The second-year back out of East Carolina needs 72 rushing yards to surpass Hall of Famer Earl Campbell (1,697 in ’79) for second-most rushing yards in a season in Oilers/Titans franchise history. Johnson also leads the NFL with a franchise-record 2,017 scrimmage yards (1,626 rush, 391 rec.). This one should be a dandy in the Music City. In one of the games of the year, give me the home squad on a Rod Bironas overtime field goal. The Pick: Titans 33, Dolphins 30

Sunday 4 p.m. ET games

Oakland at Denver: Before we just give this one to the Broncos, let’s take a second to acknowledge that the Raiders are 18-5 vs. the Broncos in December. OK, who am I kidding? The Raiders team that took the field last week vs. the Redskins couldn’t beat a high school JV squad. Kyle Orton appears to be the real deal. The former Bears gunslinger is 4-1 at home this year for Denver. But the real strength of the 2009 Broncos is the defense. Ranked third in the league and made up of a motley crew of big-name veterans (Brian Dawkins, D.J. Williams and Champ Bailey) and unsung heroes (Darrell Reid, Elvis Dumervil, Marcus Thomas, Andre Goodman), they could end up giving a conference favorite fits in January. The Pick: Broncos 23, Raiders 10

Cincinnati at San Diego: The last time these two teams played, San Diego scored 42 second-half points to beat Cincy 49-41 in 2006. It was one of the wildest games of the decade. Don’t expect that many points in this one; the defenses are just too good. With a first-round bye potentially in the balance, look for the red-hot Chargers to get the job done in their building. Want a good stat? Philip Rivers is 16-0 all-time as a starter in December. Make it 17-0 and notch the ‘Bolts down for a week off in early January. The Pick: Chargers 24, Bengals 20

Green Bay at Pittsburgh: There was a moment last Thursday night, probably sometime between a Josh Cribbs 20-yard run and one of the eight times Ben Roethlisberger was sacked by a Browns player who wasn’t close to being on an NFL roster last season, where I received a text message from my Steelers fan friend that read: “NFL Draft ... Who are some of the offensive linemen I should be researching?” I gave him the names — Russell Okung, Trent Williams, Mike Iupati, and Mike Johnson. Yep, it’s gotten to that point. The fans of the defending champions are Googling Mike Iupati, a guard from Idaho. Even on the road, I can’t see red-hot Green Bay losing to the squad I’ve been watching over the past four weeks in Pittsburgh. The Pick: Packers 31, Steelers 21

Tampa Bay at Seattle: If you had a quarterback on your roster who was 1-0 and another who was 0-12, would you not start the former? If your team was 1-0 when they practiced just four days a week and 0-12 when they practiced five, would you not cut back the practice schedule? Of course you would. So why are the Buccaneers — 0-12 in that hideous pewter and 1-0 in those beautiful Creamsicle uniforms — still wearing those ugly new-age silverish costumes? Bring back the Creamsicles, Tampa! Bring back the Creamsicles! Until then, you’ll continue to lose. Even to the Seahawks. The Pick: Seahawks 31, Buccaneers 17

Sunday night

Minnesota at Carolina: Back in August I would have circled this as one of the top games of the year. Now? It’s a good night to catch up on "The Simpsons," perhaps read a book or maybe do a little online holiday shopping. Carolina’s done for the year. Depending on what New Orleans does on Saturday night, Minnesota may be looking to take the foot off the pedal a bit, too. Brett Favre needs three touchdown passes to have 30+ TD passes in a season for the ninth time. No other quarterback’s done that. He also wears Wranglers, has a lot of fun when he plays football, and loves the darn game. The Pick: Vikings 27, Panthers 20

Monday night

New York Giants at Washington: Courtesy of Dan Steinberg at the Washington Post, I present you Clinton Portis on Tiger Woods: "I say don't get married, if it's not out of your system. I'm not married. You know, I would love to be able to say, I'm a perfect guy, yeah, baby, yeah. I'm not. You know, I may have temptations. If I find the temptation worth fulfilling, I'm gonna fulfill my temptation. If that ends up getting me in trouble at times, you know, I'll deal with it then. But right now I'm not married, and I'm 28 years old, and I'm gonna enjoy my life ... If he could keep that a secret and ain't nobody came out and told [on him], hey, congratulate him. You know, most of the time there's one or two, and you can't keep that a secret. So if he can balance 14 and keep it a secret, congrats." I'm not surprised a guy named Clinton would get Tiger's back. Thank you! I'll be here all week. The Pick: Redskins 27, Giants 23

Reader E-Mail of the Week

Peter,

With Thomas Jones now well over 1,000 yards for the fifth year in a row, I’ve got to throw the idea out there — is he an NFL Hall of Famer?

Phineas, New York City

Phineas,

First off, I love your name. A “Separate Peace” reference, I assume? That’s my favorite John Knowles book. It also happens to be the only John Knowles book I’ve read. I also love your question. My first instinct is to chuckle heartily and immediately dismiss the idea, but the more I look at the numbers, the more I’m intrigued by the sound of “Thomas Jones, NFL Hall of Famer.”

I look at the Hall of Fame in terms of generations. Based on the numbers and previous inductees, you’ve got to think 5-6 running backs per decade will be elected to the Hall. Marshall Faulk, Emmitt Smith and LaDainian Tomlinson are already locks for the 2000s.

Other recent retirees in the NFL’s top 12 all-time rushing list include Curtis Martin and Jerome Bettis. I think both have a very strong chance of ending up in Canton. Behind them? It’s guys like Edgerrin James, Shaun Alexander, Fred Taylor, Warrick Dunn, Jamal Lewis, Tiki Barber and Eddie George.

You can make the argument for guys like Clinton Portis and Steven Jackson, but I think both will probably fall short in the end. Priest Holmes? Eh, probably not. Brian Westbrook? Probably not.

Behind all of those guys is Thomas Jones. With a Super Bowl appearance and several big games on his resume, Jones has some legitimate Hall of Fame talking points. But the first five years of his career — spent in relative anonymity in Arizona and Tampa Bay — will ultimately keep Jones out of the Hall. It’s amazing how the age of 30 — something that’s been viewed as a glass ceiling of sorts for NFL running backs (see George and Alexander) — has been no such hindrance on Jones’s career. It’s as if the guy gets better as he gets older.

That said, I just don’t see him ever wearing a yellow jacket on a podium in Canton. A Pro Bowl in the year 2013? The way this guy’s playing, I wouldn’t rule that out.