DVOA ratings: Into the home stretch
No more. Baltimore and San Diego are unquestionably the two best teams in football, and this week both New England and Jacksonville move ahead of Chicago. The NFC is down to four teams in the top 10, and six teams in the top 18.
The DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) ratings break down every single play of the season and compares each one to the NFL average based on situation and opponent. Each play is judged on both total yards and yards toward a first down. (Click here for a longer explanation.)
The power ratings table gives each team's rank from 1-32 in offense, defense and special teams. Our formula gives less weight to early games to get a better picture of how well teams are playing now. The column marked Full Year shows where each team ranks if we consider early season games to be just as important as recent games. The column marked Unadjusted shows where a team would rank if we did not consider strength of schedule or abnormal luck in recovering loose balls.
If you want to see the actual DVOA ratings, along with some additional numbers we use to judge teams, check out FootballOutsiders.com.
Remember, of course, that any statistical formula is not a replacement for your own judgment, just a tool to use in analyzing performance. Also note that the DVOA ratings do not consider injuries, either in rating past games or in projecting future games.
For more statistical analysis of the various stories of the week, make sure to check out the new Football Outsiders FOX blog.
ALSO SEE:
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS DVOA RATINGS: Week 17
Rk
Team
W-L
Last week
Full Year
Unadjusted
Offense Rank
Defense Rank
Sp. Tms Rank
1.
RAVENS
12-3
3
2
3
11
1
8
FO's Mike Tanier sums it up the best: "These guys could be really scary in the playoffs if their offense is no longer Captain Checkdown and the Hitch Routes." NEXT: vs. BUF
2.
CHARGERS
13-2
1
1
1
2
12
6
How worried should we be about Philip Rivers? He was awful last week, and this week he wasn't completing any passes in the first half — but you can blame a lot of that on the receivers dropping easy balls. He was amazing against Denver, and it isn't like that game was three months ago. NEXT: vs. ARI
3.
PATRIOTS
11-4
4
5
4
8
7
4
I know, it sounds ridiculous — the New England Patriots are the third-best team in football? The team that barely beat Detroit a couple of weeks ago? Funny, the same thing just happened to Chicago. The Saints lost to Washington. The Colts are 2-4 in their last six games. The Eagles are on a run, but would you really take them over the Patriots on a neutral field right now? The Jags are ranked one spot lower, and the Patriots just beat them in a game that was only close because of a fluke not down by non-contact touchdown. Parity reigns this year, and pretty much every team is flawed. The Patriots are the only team that ranks in the top ten for offense, defense and special teams, and they happen to be slightly less flawed than everyone else — except for the two teams they would have to beat to get back to the Super Bowl, Baltimore and San Diego. NEXT: at TEN
4.
JAGUARS
8-7
5
6
6
10
3
13
I believe I've finally found a team similar to this year's Jaguars: the 1988 Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings went 11-5 and didn't win their division despite ranking fourth in points scored and second in points allowed. They beat the division champion Bears twice, one of those a 31-7 thrashing. They beat New Orleans (10-6) by 42 points and New England (9-7) by 30 points. But the role of the 2006 Texans was played by the 1988 Packers, who were 4-12 but beat Minnesota twice, and neither game was even close. Like the current Jaguars, that team had a stifling defense, but unlike the current Jaguars, their offensive strength was passing and their running game was horrible. NEXT: at KC
Rk
Team
W-L
Last week
Full Year
Unadjusted
Offense Rank
Defense Rank
Sp. Tms Rank
5.
BEARS
13-2
2
3
2
19
2
2
The Bears had an above-average defensive DVOA in every single game until three weeks ago. Not only have they had below-average defense for three straight weeks, but each game is worse than the previous one. They need to figure out what's wrong — hint, it isn't just Tank Johnson — and fix it before the playoffs. NEXT: vs. GB
6.
EAGLES
9-6
8
4
5
5
9
23
Actual comment on a Football Outsiders discussion thread: "It all comes down to balance and teamwork and the right decision-making in crucial situations, all of which is lacking with the Eagles when (Donovan McNabb) is on the field. Philly fans should find solace in seeing what a real leader provides in the intangibles that (Jeff) Garcia brings." Intangibles like what, the power to will Matt Bryant to miss a 62-yard field goal? The power to cover Plaxico Burress deep when Jim Johnson calls an all-out blitz? The power to tackle Maurice Jones-Drew? The power to make Roderick Hood healthy and teleport Dexter Wynn to Houston? There are a lot of Philadelphia fans thinking this way these days, and it is flat-out moronic. Garcia is a great story, and fits that system perfectly, but McNabb is just better, period. More here. NEXT: vs. ATL
7.
COLTS
11-4
6
7
7
1
26
29
The best part about the Ravens and Chargers as the (probable) top two seeds is that there is virtually no chance that we'll be subjected to another week of hype for a Patriots-Colts rematch. That's an awful nice Christmas present for those of us who enjoy sanity. NEXT: vs. MIA
8.
SAINTS
10-5
10
8
8
3
17
20
What a feel-good story if they make the Super Bowl. Philip Rivers vs. Drew Brees, perhaps? On the other hand, won't a defense that actually cares — i.e., not the Giants — try to shut down their offense in the same way Washington did last week, bringing pressure with the front seven and playing zone behind them to stop the big play? NEXT: vs. CAR
Rk
Team
W-L
Last week
Full Year
Unadjusted
Offense Rank
Defense Rank
Sp. Tms Rank
9.
BENGALS
8-7
11
11
10
4
24
14
I feel really bad for Brad St. Louis, and I hope people in Cincinnati understand that this team left points on the table all day long, making stupid mistakes like Chad Johnson's illegal shift penalty, so you shouldn't point the finger at one man if the Bengals miss the playoffs. NEXT: vs. PIT
10.
COWBOYS
9-6
7
9
9
6
20
19
The defense is melting. Through their Week 11 upset of Indianapolis, the Cowboys defense ranked fourth in DVOA. In the past five weeks, it ranks 31st. NEXT: vs. DET
11.
GIANTS
7-8
9
10
11
13
13
17
Yes, the Giants are a complete mess and don't seem to care anymore. (Would you want to make the playoffs just to spend another week with Tom Coughlin screaming at you?) But we do have to note that every single opponent during their recent 1-6 run is ranked 14th or higher in these ratings. NEXT: at WAS (Sat.)
12.
STEELERS
7-8
12
12
13
12
11
25
One reason to believe that Ben Roethlisberger should bounce back in 2007: The Steelers played the hardest defensive schedule in the league this year. NEXT: at CIN
Rk
Team
W-L
Last week
Full Year
Unadjusted
Offense Rank
Defense Rank
Sp. Tms Rank
13.
TITANS
8-7
16
23
25
14
14
9
The Titans move up in the ratings as those early-season blowouts get smaller in the rearview mirror. But while their six-game win streak is inspiring, it isn't as impressive as you might think. The last five wins came by a touchdown or less. Compare this win streak to the one Miami had at the end of last year, which also had people all excited. NEXT: vs. NE
14.
PANTHERS
7-8
14
14
16
23
6
24
Hey wait a minute — can DeAngelo Williams throw the ball? Maybe the answer at quarterback was right under your nose the entire time! (Probably not.) NEXT: at NO
15.
CHIEFS
8-7
13
13
12
9
23
18
Larry Johnson: 383 carries and counting. I've written about the "370 barrier" many times: Running backs with more than 370 carries in a season either lose effectiveness or suffer a major injury within two years unless they are named "Eric Dickerson." Kansas City fans are invited to e-mail mailbag-at-footballoutsiders.com with reasons why LJ will follow in the footsteps of ED instead of guys like Jamal Anderson, Terrell Davis, Jamal Lewis, Eddie George and Shaun Alexander. NEXT: vs. JAC
16.
DOLPHINS
6-9
15
17
14
26
5
21
Hey, remember that whole "Joey Harrington has finally found himself in Miami" thing? Yeah, that's over. NEXT: at IND
Rk
Team
W-L
Last week
Full Year
Unadjusted
Offense Rank
Defense Rank
Sp. Tms Rank
17.
BILLS
7-8
17
15
20
25
15
1
2007 positive indicator alert: Buffalo ranks 13th in offensive DVOA on first and second downs, but has the worst third-down offense in the league. NEXT: at BAL
18.
BRONCOS
9-6
18
16
19
20
16
10
The strange thing about the AFC playoff race is that the teams that need help are all ranked higher in DVOA than the two teams that are "win and we're in." One of Denver's biggest problems is that the Broncos offense ranks last in the first quarter. Teams that score early can establish the pace of the game, but the Broncos are constantly stuck trying to claw their way to close wins instead of killing the clock with that famous running game. NEXT: vs. SF
19.
VIKINGS
6-9
20
18
17
29
4
31
The Vikings signed Ryan Longwell away from rival Green Bay to fix their kicking game, yet our special teams ratings have them 21st on field goals and 29th on kickoffs. Longwell has not averaged more than 61 yards per kickoff since 2000, and you are supposed to have more than three touchbacks when you move from Lambeau Field to a dome. NEXT: vs. STL
20.
PACKERS
7-8
19
20
22
24
10
28
Yes, that says "10" under defense. The pass defense has really improved in recent weeks, although they got a bit of an assist from the weather this week. Charles Woodson looked awful in the preseason, but he wasn't half bad once the games started to count. The Packers still rank 20th in our ratings for run defense, though. NEXT: at CHI
Rk
Team
W-L
Last week
Full Year
Unadjusted
Offense Rank
Defense Rank
Sp. Tms Rank
21.
JETS
9-6
21
19
21
16
28
5
There's no question Mangini has done an awesome coaching job with a team that we thought would be completely out of it by November. But the fact is that they just aren't any better than all those 8-7 AFC teams that are now a game below them. They've just had better luck in close contests. NEXT: vs. OAK
22.
CARDINALS
5-10
28
29
24
18
18
26
After eight games, the Cardinals ranked 31st in offensive DVOA. Since their Week 9 bye, they rank 12th. Note the huge difference between Arizona's rating over the full year (29th) and their rating in the weighted formula (22nd). Every summer we have to hear about Arizona as a sleeper playoff team for next season. This summer, for the first time in many years, that might actually be true. NEXT: at SD
23.
FALCONS
7-8
22
21
18
21
22
22
I know he's fast and a great athlete, but look: DeAngelo Hall is not a Pro Bowl cornerback. He gets beat by good moves, and his technique still needs a lot of work. If Hall was really Pro Bowl-caliber, other teams would avoid him the way they avoid Champ Bailey — because while Hall is average, the other Atlanta cornerbacks are either really inexperienced (Jimmy Williams) or awful (everyone else). You can read more about Hall and a few of our preliminary cornerback stats in this blog post. NEXT: at PHI
24.
TEXANS
5-10
25
28
27
15
27
30
From FO's resident Texan, Tim Gerheim: "You have to respect Andre Johnson for being the most talented player on a pretty poor offense and not griping about it. All he does is catch one-yard hitches and run over the first tackler. Because of the incredibly short leash David Carr is on, (Johnson) never catches any downfield passes, either those sideline prayers Carr used to throw up, or passes over the middle that Johnson excels at. The offense really seems straitjacketed, and if that's because of Kubiak's extreme distrust of Carr, then one of them has to go before this team will be any good. The other possibility is that Kubiak wants to protect Carr on account of the offensive line, and doesn't want to call downfield plays that will only get Carr sacked. But this offense will never succeed dinking and dunking without a threat to stretch the field vertically, unless it stumbles into an opponent that can't stop the run at all. Oh, wait a minute ... ." NEXT: vs. CLE
Rk
Team
W-L
Last week
Full Year
Unadjusted
Offense Rk
Defense Rk
Sp. Tms Rk
25.
REDSKINS
5-10
23
22
26
17
31
15
We have 80 wide receivers ranked in DVOA, based on a minimum of 50 intended passes. Antwaan Randle El is 75th. Brandon Lloyd is 78th. So much for weapons opposite Santana Moss. NEXT: vs. NYG (Sat.)
26.
SEAHAWKS
8-7
27
25
23
28
21
7
If you win the division, but are the worst team in the playoff field, does this count as beating the Super Bowl Loser's Curse? I know that Seattle is a tough place to play, but there's a better than even chance that the loser of the NFC East (either Dallas or Philadelphia) will go into Qwest Field and spank the 'Hawks on Wild Card Weekend. NEXT: at TB
27.
BUCCANEERS
4-11
30
27
31
31
19
11
The Bucs rank fifth in DVOA against slot receivers, and 20th or lower against all other types of receivers. Does that say something interesting about them? Does it even matter at this point? NEXT: vs. SEA
28.
RAMS
7-8
26
24
15
7
32
32
Actually, the Rams, not the Seahawks, might end up as the worst team in the playoff field. The only team they've beaten by more than a touchdown is Oakland. No team has a bigger difference between their adjusted and unadjusted rating. Why does DVOA think the Rams are 28th, not 15th? It's a combination of their easy schedule and the serendipity of recovering 13 of 18 fumbles on defense. NEXT: at MIN
Rk
Team
W-L
Last week
Full Year
Unadjusted
Offense Rank
Defense Rank
Sp. Tms Rank
29.
49ERS
6-9
29
31
28
22
30
16
Nice rookie year for weak side linebacker Manny Lawson, and good year for right end Marques Douglas too. Based on our Adjusted Line Yards stats, the 49ers give up just 3.9 yards per carry on runs left end or left tackle, but 4.4 yards per carry on runs up the middle or to the right. NEXT: at DEN
30.
LIONS
2-13
32
30
29
27
29
3
Every week, another ex-Lion has a nice game against his old team. This week, it was Chicago defensive tackle Alfonso Boone. If you don't know who Alfonso Boone is, that's because he's never done anything worth mentioning before because he's never played against the Lions before. NEXT: at DAL
31.
BROWNS
4-11
24
26
30
30
25
12
Derek Anderson had the worst game of any Cleveland quarterback since the new Browns started (based on our DPAR stats from the Monday Quick Reads column). That's really saying something, considering the long parade of bad quarterbacks that have come through Cleveland in recent years. My advice for the Browns: call up the Jaguars and ask what they want for Byron Leftwich. NEXT: at HOU
32.
RAIDERS
2-13
31
32
32
32
8
27
Wisconsin tackle Joe Thomas has already scheduled a few extra appointments at the tattoo parlor, in preparation for being drafted by Oakland. I mean, even Matt Millen won't pass on Brady Quinn, right? Right? NEXT: at NYJ
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