On the Clock: There's case for NFL Draft lottery
Yet, whereas I like the decision to shorten the time between first-round picks from 15 to 10 minutes, I'm not so sure about the 3 p.m. EST start time that comes with it. Call me a cynic, but I think this minor change could have major disaster written all over it.
Fans will be up early on Draft Day just like they always are — they have the date circled for months. Those attending the event will be commuting into New York from who knows where, ready to relish in the biggest day of the football year outside of the Super Bowl. They'll be up at the crack of dawn regardless, raring to go. What's a 3 p.m. start time mean over the traditional noon one?
Well, three more hours to "pre-game" at a local bar or tavern down the road from Radio City Music Hall. Fans come into the draft excited, eager, and downright maniacal as is. Give them three more hours to "warm up" with the prospect of NBA and NHL weekend playoff games airing on flat screens in all the local pubs nearby? It could get interesting.
And if the Jets — the hometown team with the sixth overall pick — opt to somehow pass on Darren McFadden if he's still on the board? Well, then it could get downright ugly.
Either way, let's hope the Radio City Music Hall ushers get a good night's rest the evening before. I have a feeling they'll have their hands full on Saturday.
2008 NFL Draft
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Though I commend the commissioner and his advisory committee on shortening the draft's overall length — it was absolutely necessary — there's one change to the event I'd still like to see be made in the near future:
The league needs to install an NFL Draft lottery system.
Let's face it, no fan ever likes rooting against their favorite team. Unfortunately, that's what Jets and Chiefs fans were forced to consider doing during the two teams' horrendous Week 17 clash in New York. The Jets won the game and were subsequently rewarded with a worse draft pick than Kansas City in the upcoming draft. It's the same situation every year. A team's eliminated from the playoffs in Week 12, their fans whisper and mumble about the college players that would look best in the squad's uniform, and then quietly pump their fist as losses pile up in the final four weeks. Back in '05, Houston Texans fans were torn between rooting for their hometown squad and looking forward to the upcoming draft and a chance to lock up Heisman winner Reggie Bush. From an Associated Press article following Houston's Week 17 last-second loss to San Francisco on a Joe Nedney field goal:
"The kick also provoked a giant sigh of relief in Houston, as the Texans (2-14) narrowly avoided ruining the only solace left in their awful season. After the game, a person close to the organization told The Associated Press that (Dom) Capers will be fired Monday to start an offseason of big changes — probably peaking with a red-white-and-blue jersey for Bush. If Houston had won, the New Orleans Saints would have received the top pick and first dibs on Bush, the Heisman Trophy-winning tailback from USC who's widely expected to enter the draft.
"You heard the talk all week: 'Play well, but don't win,"' said Texans quarterback David Carr, sidelined in the first half with a right elbow injury. "All that stuff was a little distracting at times. Maybe a lot of fans were glad I busted my elbow and Andre (Johnson) got hurt. There were some wild things about this football game.
"If we couldn't win them all, if we couldn't make the playoffs, I guess having the first pick, as bad as it is, might be good."
That's terrible, terrible stuff to read. But can you blame the fans? It's a weird position to be in, and each and every season, a few squads' faithful are saddled in it throughout the final month of the year.
In the case of the NBA, you're not automatically "rewarded" for having the worst record in the league. The lottery leaves open the possibility of a shakeup in the draft order, and more often than not, such shakeup occurs. In fact, the worst team in the league has won the NBA's lottery only three times in the past 17 years. Three times! Last year, amid rumors of the Celtics tanking games towards the end of the season in order to align themselves with better odds on securing Greg Oden or Kevin Durant, Boston drew the fifth pick overall.
Why not bring this wrinkle to the NFL and its fans?
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Worth a thousand words:
Hold the lottery on the final day of the Draft Combine in Indianapolis, televise the thing, and two months prior to the NFL Draft give the fans something to chew on. Like the NBA's version, the odds would be in descending order, starting with the team with the worst record and ending with the team with the 10th worst. The bottom 10 teams are then assigned ping pong balls according to their odds, the dudes from Ernst and Young come out with their suitcases and ping pong balls, and the balls are picked one by one. You don't have to root against your squad in a meaningless Week 17 game; there's a shot they'll get the top pick even with a victory.
Shaking up the existing system would result in three positives:
- Fans of struggling teams could root for their teams in the final weeks of the season without any second thoughts about positioning in the upcoming NFL Draft.
- There'd be an increased amount of suspense and interest in the NFL's offseason. Just another treat for fans to look forward to in those cold winter months, the lottery draw would make for yet another non-football event to hold on to in the offseason.
- This would diminish speculation that a team is "tanking" the final few games of a season.
Re-read that David Carr quote. That's some crummy stuff. Toss in Jets fans openly rooting against their team in Week 17 at home this past season, and there's more than enough reason to consider making the change.
Push the start time back to noon and break out the ping pong balls.
Other than those two minor suggestions, I'm all good with the current format of the NFL Draft.
And hosting this year's awards: Ryan Leaf!
We're just a few days away from the NFL Draft. No better time to hand out some pre-Draft awards. Here are five. The envelopes, please.
The etoys.com Award: Given to the player who's stock is rapidly plummeting.
Second Runner Up: Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan
Runner Up: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma
Winner: Adarius Bowman, WR, Oklahoma State: As I noted last week, the Oklahoma State star was slated as an early second-day pick at the end of the college season as a capable receiver with good hands and some wheels. Now, a few days away from Draft day, Bowman's probably not even on most teams' draft boards. If there's ever an "NFL Draft for Dummies" book, Bowman may get his own chapter on "What Not To Do." He had an absolutely horrendous Senior Bowl performance, where he spent the whole week dropping passes. Then, there was the 4.74 40-yard-dash at the Combine, followed by the 4.75 40-yard-dash at his Pro Day. And finally, two weeks ago, came the nail in the coffin — an arrest for marijuana possession. Two years ago, maybe teams would look the other way after the arrest. But now? In the Roger Goodell Era? Sorry, folks. Not happening. At this point, I'd be very surprised if a team drafted Bowman at all.
The Erin Brockovich Award: For the inspirational story worth making into a movie.
Second Runner Up: Shane Simmons, LB, Western Washington
Runner Up: Caleb Campbell, FB, Army
Winner: Danny Woodhead, RB, Chadron State: Who? Danny Woodhead, of course. Though he'd likely punch my lights out if I suggested such a thing, Woodhead's undoubtedly the "Rudy" of this year's draft. That's not exactly fair, though, as the Chadron State star does hold the NCAA single-season and career records for rushing yards in a single season and for games with 200 or more rushing yards (19). His story is pretty wild, though.
After a stellar career at North Platte (Nebr.) High School, Nebraska didn't offer him a spot. Woodhead opted to go to nearby Chadron State instead, where he proceeded to have arguably the most decorated Division II college football career of all-time. Four standout seasons, two Harlon Hill Trophies, and numerous NCAA rushing records later, he looked toward the NFL Draft combine.
That was, of course, until he wasn't invited to participate.
Woodhead showed up at Nebraska's Pro Day on March 12 as an absolute unknown. He then stole the show, ripping off a 4.33-40-yard-dash, a speed which would have ranked him in the top 3 of all running backs clocked at the Combine in February. Though few knew him coming in, everyone came away humming about Danny Woodhead afterward.
Only 5-foot-7, his NFL dreams are still a long shot. But after being spurned by his home-state college team, then the NFL Combine invite list, it'd be some magical tale to see him drafted on Sunday. It's still a bit of a stretch but it could happen. Hey, he's overcome big odds before.
The Kaiser Soze Award: For the player everyone's enchanted with, despite having never actually seen him play.
Second Runner Up: Josh Johnson, QB, San Diego
Runner Up: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State
Winner: Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware: You'd think the guy is already as good as Ben Roethlisberger with the hype the 6-foot-7 quarterback is getting. Some mock drafts have him going as high as the first round. Hey, it might happen. But you could count the amount of fans who've actually seen more than one of Flacco's college games on one hand. And all those fans are likely his Fightin' Blue Hens teammates' parents.
The Steve Guttenberg Award: For the former first-round pick whose career unfairly gets discounted as some sort of massive failure during the draft each year.
Second Runner Up: Steve Emtman, Indianapolis
Runner Up: Jeff George, Indianapolis
Winner: Mike Mamula, DE, Philadelphia: Sure, Eagles fans would rather have had Warren Sapp with the No. 7 pick in the '95 Draft, but let's not write Mamula's career off as some piece of crap, either. Mamula played in 77 career games — far more than the average NFL player. In those 77 games, he accumulated 209 tackles and 31.5 sacks. Furthermore, he started as a rookie and second-year player on very good Eagles squads. Had injuries not plagued him, Mamula could have been a very steady NFL performer. Should he have been the seventh overall pick? In hindsight, no, of course not. But was he worth a first-round choice? I'd say so.
The Edgerrin James over Ricky Williams Award: For the biggest surprises I foresee taking place in the first round on Saturday.
Second Runner Up: The Falcons passing on Matt Ryan with the No. 3 pick, and waiting until the second round to grab a quarterback.
Runner Up: The Saints passing on Keith Rivers at No. 10 and grabbing Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie instead.
Winner: Just one wide receiver and three running backs being selected in the entire first round. I've been saying since March that this wide receiver class just ain't that good. Actually, that's incorrect. They're good, just not great. Of the top five wide receivers on my board, none of them are worthy of a top 15 pick, and there's very little separating one from the next. I think Devin Thomas of Michigan State is the only one going in the whole first round.
As for running back, there's a bounty of solid backs that will likely be available in rounds 2-5. With running back not really a "need" for most teams this year, patience may be the trick come this weekend. After McFadden and Rashard Mendenhall, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Chris Johnson, Kevin Smith, Mike Hart, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles and Matt Forte are all viable options, ready to contribute next season. If you don't grab one of them in the first round, one or more should still be available by the time your team is on the board in rounds 2, 3, and even 4. You heard it here first: One receiver and just three running backs will be drafted in the entire first round.
Peter, You're not just an idiot, You're a ___, ___, ___ , and a ____.
Peter,
You're not just an idiot. You're a ___, ___, ___, and a ___. Fill those blanks in however you wish. Play mad libs with swear words! Because that's how I feel about you right now, bro. How the heck can you not have the Bills taking a receiver? Are you insane, man? Have you seen us try to pass the ball in recent years? It's a joke. I don't care if they draft the rights to Andre Reed or Don Beebe in the first round, that 11th pick will be spent on a receiver.
Doug,
Syracuse, NY
Doug, I filled in those blank spaces with the words "genius", "philanthropist", "handsome person", and "stellar ipod playlist maker." As for the Bills, trust me. I know they need a receiver to pair alongside Lee Evans in the worst way. But, I just don't think it's necessary to spend the 11th overall pick on a wideout worth 25th overall value. The Bills own the 41st pick in this draft. I'm confident that if they're patient in the first round and fill a need elsewhere with that pick, they'll still be able to land a more than competent receiver in the second.
Early Doucet, Limas Sweed, Mario Manningham, and even Malcolm Kelly might still be on the board by 41. I see the Bills front office showing a little patience and restraint, grabbing a difference maker on defense (perhaps Keith Rivers or Leodis McKelvin) with the 11th, and scooping up a receiver 30 picks later. The wideout you want to see taken at 11? With this year's up-for-grabs receiver class, there's a chance even he slips to 41, bro.
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