Fantasy strategy, Part I: Top 10 tips for a winning draft

by Roger Rotter

Updated: July 24, 2008, 9:05 PM EST 56 comments

I'll show how to achieve success at all three segments to bring home a fantasy football title.

Part I: Top 10 tips for a winning draft

So your draft is right around the corner, and you are wondering whom to pick? Your leaguemates are razzing you, ready to stomp your team and watch you go up in smoke before the season has even started. Hey, no worries! We give you 10 step-by-step draft tips that will leave your fellow owners behind in the dust.

1. Print out your rankings sheets and bring them to the draft.

It's best to find the most up-to-date ones online, and I offer the Top 500 players. You don't want to pick an injured player who hurt his knee a few days ago. Cheat sheets will allow you to cross out the names as the players are chosen. So when it's your turn to pick a player, you won't be picking someone who was already chosen. This will avoid jeers by others.

All the players are ranked twice — by their position and in a combined, overall list. You will be picking the best player available. Just make sure to cross off the names on both lists. You will most likely have 16 rounds of drafting, so you will be picking 16 players. Don't think twice if you have never heard of these players. Others have done the research for you.

2. Choose a running back in the first round.

The best fantasy teams usually have the best running backs. You need two of them, and they score consistent points every week. So it's imperative to have at least one great one. The best ones run for 100 yards or more and score one touchdown per game. San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson, Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook and Minnesota's Adrian Peterson are the best of the group. If you have the No. 1 overall pick, give serious consideration to taking Tomlinson.

Key: These 12 have the best chance to rush for at least 1,000 yards and score double-digit touchdowns: Tomlinson, Westbrook, Peterson, Indianapolis' Joseph Addai, St. Louis' Steven Jackson, Washington's Clinton Portis, Green Bay's Ryan Grant, Kansas City's Larry Johnson, Buffalo's Marshawn Lynch, Dallas' Marion Barber, Cleveland's Jamal Lewis and Baltimore's Willis McGahee.

Note: Tom Brady and Randy Moss are exceptions to this rule, as noted in my blog and the FOX Sports Fantasy magazine pullout. However, for beginners, these are 10 simple tips to follow.

3. Choose a wide receiver in the second round.

The top wide receivers can catch 100 passes, gain more than 1,000 yards and score double-digit touchdowns. These No. 1 wide receivers are heavily involved in their offenses and will produce consistently at a high level. In fact, they are more reliable than the next second dozen running backs.

Why take a receiver before a quarterback? You only need one quarterback while many leagues require at least two starting wide receivers with the possibility of three.

Key: These will have the best chance to gain at least 1,000 yards and score double-digit touchdowns.

New England's Randy Moss, Dallas' Terrell Owens, Indianapolis' Reggie Wayne, Cleveland's Braylon Edwards, Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald, New England's Wes Welker, Cincinnati's T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Houston's Andre Johnson, Carolina's Steve Smith, Denver's Brandon Marshall, New York Giants' Plaxico Burress, New Orleans' Marques Colston, St. Louis' Torry Holt, Indianapolis' Marvin Harrison and Cincinnati's Chad Johnson.

4. Choose a second running back in the third round.

You can't go wrong with having a second strong running back on your team. These guys are the workhorses in football. They have these big 350-pound guys blocking for them. All they need to do is run forward and be sly, like their moves in night clubs. You can pick up another wide receiver and a quarterback later.

Key: This next group of running backs has the best chance of gaining at least 1,000 yards and scoring double-digit touchdowns: San Francisco's Frank Gore, Jacksonville's Maurice Jones-Drew, Miami's Ronnie Brown, Oakland's Darren McFadden, Dallas' Felix Jones, Pittsburgh's Willie Parker, Carolina's Jonathan Stewart, the Giants' Brandon Jacobs, New England's Laurence Maroney, New Orleans' Reggie Bush, Tennessee's LenDale White, the Jets' Thomas Jones, Atlanta's Michael Turner, Arizona's Edgerrin James and Denver's Selvin Young.

5. Choose a tight end in the fourth round.

The greatest disparity at a fantasy position is tight end. Only three tight ends achieved 1,000-yard seasons last year, and just one reached double-digit touchdowns. Talent thins quickly after the top class. Grab one of the best, and you'll have an advantage nearly every week at that position.

Key: These will have the best chance to catch 80 or more passes, gain at least 1,000 yards and score double-digit touchdowns.

Dallas' Jason Witten, San Diego's Antonio Gates, Kansas City's Tony Gonzalez, Cleveland's Kellen Winslow

6. Choose a quarterback in the fifth round.

You can grab a solid quarterback in Round 5. Pick former Super Bowl winner Ben Roethlisberger of Pittsburgh or New Orleans' Drew Brees for a quarterback if they're available. Roethlisberger can add points for you not only by passing, but by running with the football, too. The best one is Tom Brady; he will be long gone by the fifth round, but you can still win without him. Scratch Peyton Manning and Tony Romo, too. They will have been swept before the second beverage is opened.

Key: These have the best chance to throw for at least 4,000 yards or 30 or more touchdowns.

Brady, Manning, Romo, Brees, Roethlisberger, Cincinnati's Carson Palmer, Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck and Cleveland's Derek Anderson.

Detroit rookie Kevin Smith is the favorite to be Detroit's featured running back and serves as a solid No. 3 back in drafts. (Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)

7. Choose your third running back in the sixth round and your second wideout in the seventh round.

Key: Draft running backs who are sharing time in a committee or can win the featured role with a promotion or injury.

These include: Chicago's Kevin Jones, Detroit's Kevin Smith, Chicago's Matt Forte, Pittsburgh's Rashard Mendenhall, Jacksonville's Fred Taylor, Tennessee's Chris Johnson, Seattle's Julius Jones, Tampa Bay's Earnest Graham, Houston's Ahman Green, Cincinnati's Rudi Johnson, Minnesota's Chester Taylor, Oakland's Justin Fargas and Carolina's DeAngelo Williams.

Key: Many leagues require three wideouts, so make sure to own at least a pair of the NFL's top receivers. A solid No. 2 receiver will gain 1,000 yards (an average of about 60 yards per game) and score 8-10 touchdowns.

The second-tier receivers include: Green Bay's Greg Jennings, Arizona's Anquan Boldin, Detroit's Roy Williams, Pittsburgh's Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh's Hines Ward, Minnesota's Bernard Berrian, Philadelphia's Kevin Curtis, Kansas City's Dwayne Bowe, San Diego's Chris Chambers, Buffalo's Lee Evans, Seattle's Bobby Engram, Atlanta's Roddy White, Jacksonville's Jerry Porter, Green Bay's Donald Driver, Tampa Bay's Joey Galloway, the Jets' Laveranues Coles, Washington's Santana Moss, Oakland's Javon Walker, the Jets' Jerricho Cotchery, Detroit's Calvin Johnson, Baltimore's Derrick Mason and Cleveland's Donte' Stallworth.

8. Choose a third wide receiver in the eighth round and a second quarterback in the ninth round.

One important tip: Be sure to look at the bye week. Every team takes a one-week vacation during the 17-game regular season, so they actually only play 16 games. Check the schedules for the teams of your starting quarterback, running backs and wide receivers, and make sure you leave enough starters without the same bye week. You will want to substitute a backup when your normal starters have bye weeks.

Key: Draft a third wideout who can emerge as a 1,000-yard receiver with a promotion, more playing time or injury.

These include: Philadelphia's Reggie Brown, San Francisco's Isaac Bruce, Indianapolis' Anthony Gonzalez, Denver's Darrell Jackson, Chicago's Marty Booker, Seattle's Deion Branch, Tennessee's Roydell Williams, Miami's Ernest Wilford, Dallas' Patrick Crayton, Green Bay's James Jones, Houston's Kevin Walter, Jacksonville's Reggie Williams, Seattle's Nate Burleson, New England's Jabar Gaffney and St. Louis' Drew Bennett.

Key: Draft a backup quarterback who will throw for at least 3,000 yards and 24 touchdowns.

The top candidates include: Denver's Jay Cutler, the Giants' Eli Manning, San Diego's Philip Rivers, St. Louis' Marc Bulger, Jacksonville's David Garrard, Philadelphia's Donovan McNabb and Detroit's Jon Kitna.

9. Choose two backup running backs and two wide receivers in Rounds 10-13.

Add depth at these positions to protect against injuries and bye weeks. Take the backup of each of your first two running backs. They will serve as insurance.

Key: Draft the backups to your starting running backs, if that is set by draft day.

Tomlinson: Jacob Hester
Westbrook: Correll Buckhalter
Addai: Dominic Rhodes
Jackson: Brian Leonard
Portis: Ladell Betts
Grant: Brandon Jackson
L. Johnson: Jamaal Charles
Lynch: Fred Jackson
Parker: Mendenhall
Lewis: Jason Wright
McGahee: Ray Rice
Gore: DeShaun Foster
Brown: Ricky Williams
Jones-Drew: Taylor
Jacobs: Derrick Ward, Ahmad Bradshaw
White: Chris Henry
Jones: Jesse Chatman
Turner: Jerious Norwood
James: Marcel Shipp
Bush: Aaron Stecker, Pierre Thomas
Maroney: Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris

Key: Take wide receivers with a different bye week than the starters. Draft the best wide receiver still available, either from the list above or from your online rankings sheet.

10. Choose defenses in Rounds 14 and 15 and a kicker in Round 16.

Key: Draft a fantasy defense that will both have a strong pass rush and a stout run defense. If defenses can stop the run, they can put teams in more third-and-longs. Those situations lead to sacks and turnovers.

These defenses have the best chance for 40 sacks, 30 turnovers and four touchdowns (including special teams scores): San Diego, Chicago, New England, Minnesota, N.Y. Giants, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Seattle and Jacksonville.

Here's the second tier. At the least, one of these can be used against turnover-prone offenses as a spot start: Philadelphia, Arizona, Tampa Bay, Buffalo, Tennessee, Houston, Denver, Cleveland, Detroit, N.Y. Jets, Washington and Oakland.

Key: Wait until last round to draft a kicker.

The top ones include: Tennessee's Rob Bironas, Dallas' Nick Folk, Chicago's Robbie Gould, New England's Stephen Gostkowski, New England's Adam Vinatieri, Cincinnati's Shayne Graham, Green Bay's Mason Crosby, Houston's Kris Brown, Cleveland's Phil Dawson, San Diego's Nate Kaeding, Jacksonville's Josh Scobee, Baltimore's Matt Stover, Detroit's Jason Hanson, Philadelphia's David Akers, Arizona's Neil Rackers, Oakland's Sebastian Janikowski and Minnesota's Ryan Longwell.

Check out Part II: Management of team ...