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NFL Decision '08: Can Pats be perfect again?
by FOXSports.com
No cure for this hangover
By Randy Hill Special to FOXSports.com Please hand the ice bag to the New England Patriots. Although I don't advise January concession speeches from their fans, a duplicate strut toward regular-season perfection seems pretty far-fetched. For disparate reasons contributed by a roll call of the damned, the Super Bowl-loser jinx is real. This decade, only one team — the Seattle Seahawks — has avoided sliding out of the subsequent playoff party the first season after losing a roman-numeral game. And the Seahawks still managed to regress, spiraling down to nine victories after recording 13 in their Super Bowl season. Short of an injury to quarterback Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and his Patriots will make the playoffs. They'll win the AFC East. They'll be threats to make another big bid for a Super Bowl return. But they won't boat race an entire league during the regular season. Yeah, the defense is getting older. Asante Samuel, one of the league's stickiest corners, now works in Philly. The youthful upgrades at linebacker are nice, on paper, but the complex 3-4 scheme may prove a bit more sophisticated than rookies Jerod Mayo (Tennessee) and Shawn Crable (Michigan) can master just now. One of the offensive linemen had an off-field issue (zzzzzz!) and Spygate has guaranteed that every road game will inspire opposing players and fans even more than the challenge of defeating an outstanding team. So, the reasons for doubting New England are quite iffy, but they've become legion. Now, please insert one big, ol' "HOWEVER" right here. OK, with all of this jinx talk on the table, please note that the greatest variable in recommending the Patriots' slight dip in domination is fear. Or lack of it. Right, the Patriots have no fear, but — based on the second half of last season — it appeared that very few of their opponents continued to fear them. And there's quite a chasm separating fear and respect. In seven of the first eight games last season, the Patriots' margin of victory was three touchdowns or more. They scored at least 34 points in each of those games and had an average victory margin of four touchdowns. In six of its last eight regular-season victories, New England won by only 10 or fewer points. The average margin of victory was an alarmingly downscaled nine points. Such demonstrations reminded the rest of the NFL that the Patriots were mortal. Much of this reduction in opposition fear was credited to swell adjustments by coaches studying (what else?) video. It may not be all that poetic, but let's take any justice we can find. |
Don't worry about the Pats
By Peter Schrager Special to FOXSports.com Will the Patriots suffer a hangover from their Super debacle, or resume their pursuit of perfection? I read a pundit's prediction online the other day, insisting that the Patriots would not win more than 10 games this season. Think they're suffering a hangover? Fine. Assuming they're going to take it easy during the regular season after last season's marathon quest for perfection? Sure, I can see that. But let me ask you this, folks — which six teams on that cake schedule are beating the Patriots in 2008? Take a look at that thing. Ohio State has a tougher schedule. And that's not saying much. Yes, in one of the more bizarre scheduling quirks in NFL history, the Patriots not only have an easy slate ahead of them this season, but, the easiest schedule in the entire league. Of 32 teams, New England's strength of schedule is ranked 32nd. Their 2008 opponents had a .377 winning percentage in '07. Even at 80 percent, even if they're half asleep come Sundays, this Patriots team will win 10 games this season. Think they're losing a game to an AFC East opponent? Get out of here. To Oakland? Kansas City? Arizona? San Francisco? C'mon. Of course, I don't think New England loses three games — let alone six — all year. After a tumultuous offseason in which we saw the media turn on them in grand fashion over Spygate, various players arrested, and several contributors from last year's 18-1 squad depart via free agency — there seems to be a lot of Patriots doubters out there in the media. This plays right into Bill Belichick's hands. First off, the offseason losses weren't as drastic as everyone's making them out to be. Aside from CB Asante Samuel and WR Donte Stallworth, no other top-flight performers from last year's squad will be playing anywhere other than New England this season. Add rookie linebacker Jerod Mayo into the mix, a healthy Chad Jackson at flanker, an inspired Lamont Jordan in the backfield, and a re-signed Randy Moss — and you've got as strong a team as you saw in '07 taking the field in '08. Next, you've got to take the psychology of this all into account. Bill Belichick is a master motivator of men. If you don't think he's soaking up everyone picking the Jaguars and Chargers out of the AFC this preseason, you're out of your mind. Losing that Super Bowl was rough on the Patriots. They make no bones about that. But like any relationship or romance gone awry, time heals all. And like the jilted bachelor who was left at the altar only to emerge six months later stronger than ever before, New England's going to come out playing with a focused vengeance in '08. Will they go undefeated? You know what? It's not that crazy a thought. They very well might. Vegas currently has it at 15-1 odds.
I think that's as good a bet as any. |
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