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Laying odds for Favre's immediate future
Favre's best moments
Packers coach Mike McCarthy basically shut the door on Favre's potential return during a Tuesday news conference. After meeting with Favre for more than eight hours the past two days, McCarthy said the quarterback still wanted to play football. It's just not with the team where he has forged a Hall of Fame career over the past 16 seasons because of the soap opera that has unfolded with Packers management this offseason.
That means it's highly unlikely Favre will ever wear a Packers uniform again, even though he was officially reinstated to the team Monday.
"He was not at the proper mindset to be part of our football team," McCarthy said.
So what's next in the Favre saga? Here are the most likely options and the odds of them occurring.
1. A trade to Tampa Bay
Why it could happen: The Bucs make the most sense on many levels. Tampa Bay coach Jon Gruden runs a West Coast offense that Favre should have an easy time learning, considering he played in similar systems throughout his Packers tenure. Favre and Gruden have familiarity from when the former was a Packers offensive assistant in 1993 and 1994. Tampa Bay has the salary cap space to accommodate Favre's $12 million base salary. Favre would be playing for what would become a legitimate Super Bowl contender, and even have a shot for revenge against the Packers during a Sept. 28 matchup.
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Why it might not: Green Bay is reticent to trade Favre within the NFC. Favre also may balk at any trade in hopes of trying to negotiate his own free-agent deal by forcing a Packers release. Favre, though, doesn't have much leverage on that front. If he should refuse to report after being dealt, Favre's new team would have the right to try and recoup part of his signing bonus paid by the Packers. Tampa Bay did just that with quarterback Jake Plummer. He was forced to refund $3.5 million when deciding to stay retired, rather than play for the Bucs after being traded by Denver.
Odds: 2-to-1
2. A trade to the New York Jets
Why it could happen: So far, the only viable non-NFC trade option for Favre is New York. The Jets aren't considered the same caliber Super Bowl contender as Tampa Bay, especially playing in the same division as New England. But New York could make a playoff run after upgrading its personnel this offseason through trades and wild free-agent spending. New York's biggest question mark is at quarterback, where two ho-hum candidates — Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens — are battling for the starting spot.
Why it might not: Making another huge financial investment in a player like Favre might be too much for New York to fit under its salary cap. Favre also has no history with head coach Eric Mangini or offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. If the Jets don't feel Favre would be excited to play for them, why invite what could become a major headache?
Odds: 4-to-1.
3. Retirement
Why it could happen: Favre isn't speaking much, so it's difficult getting inside his head. But McCarthy said Favre was going through "a very stressful time for him and his family." Favre may ultimately decide that playing elsewhere just isn't worth it and retire once more.
Why it might not: McCarthy sensed that Favre wants to play in 2008. And since Favre successfully applied for NFL reinstatement while spending time preparing for a comeback, why stop now with the regular season roughly a month away?
Odds: 20-to-1
4. A trade to Minnesota
Why it could happen: Favre would green-light a deal that would reunite him with Vikings offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, who coached him previously with the Packers. Favre would have familiarity with the opposition playing in the NFC North and get two regular season shots at the Packers.
Why it might not: Packers general manager Ted Thompson has said he wouldn't trade Favre within the division. The Vikings would have to offer considerable trade compensation for Thompson to reconsider his stance.
Odds: 50-to-1
5. The Packers release Favre
Why it could happen: If unable to receive adequate trade compensation, the Packers may decide that cutting Favre is the best option for future relations. Green Bay President Mark Murphy was so concerned about Favre's long-term relationship with the Packers that he reportedly offered a $20-million package for the quarterback to stay retired. From a business standpoint, Favre is a commodity whose merchandising value will remain strong as long as he continues to embrace the Packers, especially as his eventual Hall of Fame induction approaches. Granting Favre his wish for freedom would ensure he stays on good terms with the franchise.
Why it might not: The Packers don't want to let Favre join another team — especially a division rival like Minnesota — without receiving trade compensation.
Odds: 100-to-1
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