Three big games to watch in Week 1
by Elliott Harrison, Special to FOXSports.com
NFL Week 17
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Week 17 action
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Vikings 20, Giants 19 -- Recap | Box
Panthers 33, Saints 31 -- Recap | Box
Packers 31, Lions 21 -- Recap | Box
Falcons 31, Rams 27 -- Recap | Box
Texans 31, Bears 24 -- Recap | Box
Patriots 13, Bills 0 -- Recap | Box
Colts 23, Titans 0 -- Recap | Box
Steelers 31, Browns 0 -- Recap | Box
Raiders 31, Bucs 24 -- Recap | Box
Bengals 16, Chiefs 6 -- Recap | Box
Eagles 44, Cowboys 6 -- Recap | Box
Dolphins 24, Jets 17 -- Recap | Box
49ers 27, Redskins 24 -- Recap | Box
Ravens 27, Jaguars 7 -- Recap | Box
Cardinals 34, 'Hawks 24 -- Recap | Box
Chargers 52, Broncos 21 -- Recap | Box
Analysis
Video
Photos
Jacksonville at Tennessee
If you asked anyone who the most effective quarterback in the AFC last year was behind Tom Brady, who would they say? Peyton Manning? Easy choice. Ben Roethlisberger? It was his best year statistically. But for my money, I would go with David Garrard. His numbers weren't staggering, but most head coaches and general managers value a player based on his performance within that team's system. Garrard was a Jedi master in a ball-control, don't-hand-the-other-team-opportunities offense. In 325 attempts, he completed 64% of his passes and threw only three interceptions.
The Titans, on the other hand, thrive on mistakes and turnovers. It kept them in several games last year as they finished sixth in forcing turnovers. Jeff Fisher has always believed in controlling the game and forcing mistakes defensively. His upbringing as a backup defensive back in Buddy Ryan's 46 defense dictated much of that. The problem lies in the fact that the Jaguars just don't give anything away. They're very physical and don't play into the oppositions' hands. Garrard won't throw interceptions and Fred Taylor won't fumble.
The other issue for the Titans in this game is the lack of a strategic alternative. Vince Young has yet to show he's capable of winning a shootout, but he has demonstrated in his brief career the ability to improvise and make key plays in tight games. That will serve Fisher and the Titans well against a team that traditionally plays it close like the Jags. Too bad it won't be enough. The Titans still have no proven commodity at running back or wide receiver and Justin Gage should be "just-in-case," not a team's No. 1 receiver.
Pick: Jaguars
Dallas at Cleveland
This game is drenched in history. The last time the Cowboys opened in Cleveland was 1991. Making his debut as a head coach at that game was none other than Bill Belichick roaming the Browns' sideline. The Spygate Czar was trying to put his stamp on a franchise that had plummeted from an AFC Championship appearance in 1989 to a 3-13 record in 1990. He didn't even sport the cutoff-sleeve sweatshirts yet.
The Cowboys' head coach was sporting an 8-24 record, trying to prove his blueprint for success in pro football was the right one. His quarterback was hoping to show Cowboy fans that he had been the correct choice as a starter over Steve Walsh. It seems laughable now, but thus was the plight of Jimmy Johnson and Troy Aikman in September 1991.
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| In 1991, Troy Aikman and the Cowboys won their season opener against the Browns. Will this year's Cowboys see the same results? (Joe Patronite / Getty Images) |
Ultimately, the offense would flourish under Aikman and offensive coordinator Norv Turner, hired by Johnson to turn around a stagnating offense that had the pieces in place Emmitt Smith, Michael Irvin, Jay Novacek but little production. Turner's offense would prove too much for Belichick's Browns and the Cowboys were off and running to three Super Bowls and six straight playoff appearances. The Browns headed in the opposite direction, managing only one playoff appearance in Belichick's five-year run as head coach. The team went south fast, or southeast to be precise, to Baltimore.
The outcome of the 2008 version of this inter-conference matchup will come down to the Browns' offense vs. the Cowboys' defense. Safeties Roy Williams and newly rich Ken Hamlin were both friendly in pass coverage in 2007. Even if Braylon Edwards is contained by the underrated Terence Newman, Kellen Winslow may declare personal jihad on the Cowboys' safeties. That doesn't bode well for Dallas.
Still, there is no way Cleveland can stop offensive coordinator Jason Garrett's offense. Has any coordinator ever made it look so easy in his first season? And Tony Romo has too many weapons for the Browns' porous defense.
Pick: Cowboys
Chicago at Indianapolis
This may be the most intriguing contest of the weekend. No one knows how much of a factor Peyton Manning's knee will be until the games are for real. Marvin Harrison is as old as the writer of this column, which may not be so good either. The offense is coming in with question marks, only to face the strength of the Bears' unit.
Not to contradict this line of thinking, but it's worth noting that a friend of mine shot a commercial with Peyton Manning last summer. Manning told said friend that they could've easily hung a 50-spot on the Bears the last time they played in Super Bowl XLI. My buddy is a 44-year-old sportscaster so he exaggerates virtually everything, but thinking back on that game, it's believable. The field in that Super Bowl was slick, which can sometimes put points at a premium, but usually it favors the offense. After all, they know where they are going, while defensive players are forced to react. There will be no Cedric Benson this time to cough up the ball, and potentially no Rex Grossman to serve up interceptions. So with no short field or footing advantages, injuries on the offensive line, and Manning's gimpy knee, this is not a guaranteed win for the Colts.
Look for the Bears to play it safe with "Neck Beard" Orton at the helm. This means running game, high-percentage passes and letting Brian Urlacher take away the soft middle from Manning. Unfortunately, even if that all works, the Colts have the better kicker in a close game.
Pick: Colts
Odds and ends
Elliot Harrison is the head researcher on FSN's Pro Football Preview.



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