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Cheat Sheet: Market pressure
Now in the morning I sleep alone; Sweep the streets I used to own"
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| The Titans lead the NFL in scoring defense and takeaways and are allowing only 263.5 yards per game. (Matt Sullivan / Getty Images) |
Yes, to the dismay of music snobs everywhere, I'm quoting Coldplay. And yes, "Viva La Vida" could be the song of all songs for about a thousand of America's highest-earning finance executives this week. But, it could also be the musical score for several perennial NFL powerhouses through the first quarter of the 2008 season.
Tony Dungy and Co. in Indianapolis, Bill Belichick and his underwhelming Patriots up in New England, Norv Turner and his .500 Chargers are suddenly all human this season. Out in the NFC West, the Seahawks are no longer shoe-ins for a division title, while everyone's questioning the Cowboys' future down in Big D.
Keeping with the Wall Street theme, let's give some quarterly earnings reports for all 32 teams.
Buy, Buy, Buy: Tennessee, New York Giants, Buffalo, Washington, Pittsburgh, Baltimore.
The common thread of these squads? Dominant defenses. The NFL's 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 12th-ranked scoring defensive units are represented. The 2008 Titans are already drawing comparisons to the 2000 Ravens and the 1985 Bears. A bit premature? Sure. But not ridiculous by any means. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz will be able to name his price in St. Louis this offseason.
Hold For Now, but Keep a Close Eye On: San Diego, Dallas, Indianapolis, New England, Denver, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Arizona.
All look relatively fine on paper but could have some real trouble brewing. The Broncos' porous defense caught up with them in Kansas City, Indianapolis looks old and can't seem to win at home, New England's all banged up, and Philly and Green Bay each lost tough ones on the road to conference opponents over the weekend.
Dallas looked inferior to Washington, and apparently 17 balls aren't enough to keep Mr. Owens satisfied. San Diego's lost two close ones and needed to really rally to knock off a team in shambles out in Oakland. After two impressive wins to start the season, Arizona is a mess again, too. How quickly bandwagons can empty. I'm not crazy about any of these squads at the moment.
Buy Now While Still Under Market Value: Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Carolina, San Francisco, Chicago.
The Jags have reeled off two last-second wins in a row, while Tampa Bay and Carolina are winning with defense and heady play out of the quarterback position each week. San Francisco and Chicago are intriguing squads in wide-open divisions, as well. I'd say all five of these teams are relatively under the radar, and well worth an investor's attention.
Missing Their Projected Numbers: Cleveland, Cincinnati, Seattle, Minnesota, New York Jets, New Orleans.
Before the season started, I warned readers about the Browns and Vikings. Whenever pundits crown you the favorites in your division after seasons in which you don't even qualify for the playoffs, it's trouble. Minnesota and Cleveland are each 1-3 despite lofty expectations.
The Jets, Seahawks, and Bengals were all expected to be competitive. Seattle and New York should be in the mix come playoff time, but have shown great inconsistency over the season's first quarter. Cincinnati's just downright putrid. The Saints, everyone's preseason favorites to return to prominence in the NFC South, are hanging tough at 2-2 despite a rash of injuries. Their defense is still a question mark.
Sell Short, Buy Long: Miami, Atlanta, Kansas City.
They're three teams that won't make the playoffs this season but are destined to be contenders in a few years. Miami, Atlanta, and Kansas City have all notched victories this season. All are young, hungry and coached by team-first disciplinarians.
NFL Week 17
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Week 17 action
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Vikings 20, Giants 19 -- Recap | Box
Panthers 33, Saints 31 -- Recap | Box
Packers 31, Lions 21 -- Recap | Box
Falcons 31, Rams 27 -- Recap | Box
Texans 31, Bears 24 -- Recap | Box
Patriots 13, Bills 0 -- Recap | Box
Colts 23, Titans 0 -- Recap | Box
Steelers 31, Browns 0 -- Recap | Box
Raiders 31, Bucs 24 -- Recap | Box
Bengals 16, Chiefs 6 -- Recap | Box
Eagles 44, Cowboys 6 -- Recap | Box
Dolphins 24, Jets 17 -- Recap | Box
49ers 27, Redskins 24 -- Recap | Box
Ravens 27, Jaguars 7 -- Recap | Box
Cardinals 34, 'Hawks 24 -- Recap | Box
Chargers 52, Broncos 21 -- Recap | Box
Analysis
Video
Photos
Why The #%^# Did You Ever Own This Stock in the First Place? Detroit, St. Louis, Oakland.
They're in absolute shambles. Think Scott Linehan was playing with a hint of desperation last weekend? He ran three reverse plays and went for it on fourth-and-3 from the Buffalo 42 . . . in the first half. As for Lane Kiffin, you had a feeling he knew he was coaching his final game when he had his kicker attempt a 76-yard field goal on Sunday. As for Detroit, the Millen era is finally over but it's a case of too little, too late. The season's already a lost cause.
Fire Your Portfolio Manager: Houston.
Gary Kubiak's boys were my surprise sleeper pick in late August. I guaranteed the Texans would finish above .500 and be in the wild-card hunt. Three games into the season, they're winless with the 29th-ranked defense in the league. Looks like FOXSports.com commenter and longtime Schrager/Marvez hater "Angrees4X" was right when he said it then: "Schrager's been taking too many crazy pills."
Or listening to too much Coldplay.
Schrager First Quarter Awards
MVP: Tony Romo, Dallas
Top Offensive Player: Jay Cutler, Denver
Top Defensive Player: Keith Bullock, Tennessee
Top Offensive Rookie: Chris Johnson, Tennessee
Top Defensive Rookie: Brandon Flowers, Kansas City
Top Coach: Dick Jauron, Buffalo
Comeback Player: Brian Griese, Tampa Bay
This week's Cheat Sheet
Tennessee at Baltimore, 1 p.m. EST
Two of the league's top defenses square off in a game that's over/under may be 10 points. That's fine with Tennessee, a squad that could field four players on offense and still be competitive each week. Pick: Tennessee 17, Baltimore 3
Kansas City at Carolina, 1 p.m.
For all the criticism Damon Huard seems to get in NFL circles, the guy's not bad. Over the course of his career, the veteran QB has 15 TDs vs. 5 INTs and a 101.5 passer rating vs. the NFC. It won't be enough on Sunday. Pick: Carolina 23, Kansas City 20
Chicago at Detroit, 1 p.m.
One of these teams won a huge game on national television with a fourth-quarter, goal-line stand last weekend. The other is the worst team in all of professional sports. Who do you think is going to win? Pick: Chicago 30, Detroit 24
Atlanta at Green Bay, 1 p.m.
After starting out hot, the Packers have come back to earth with two straight losses. Lose another one and Packers fans may be going on eBay to buy Brett Favre jerseys to replace the ones they threw away after Aaron Rodgers' first two games. Pick: Green Bay 27, Atlanta 13
Indianapolis at Houston, 1 p.m.
Did the Colts find a time machine on their bye week? They've looked old, rusty, and bored in their first three games. Luckily, that'll still be enough to beat the Texans. Pick: Indianapolis: 31, Houston 21
San Diego at Miami, 1 p.m.
The Dolphins have beaten the Chargers seven straight times (the longest current streak against any team) and Chad Pennington is 3-0 against San Diego in his career. Upset special, folks. Pick: Miami 23, San Diego 17
Seattle at New York Giants, 1 p.m.
This one has trap game written all over it. The Giants are never good after a bye week and Seattle's had New York's number in recent years. It's a game to the finish, with the Giants winning on a last-second field goal. Pick: New York Giants 16, Seattle 13
Washington at Philadelphia, 1 p.m.
John Madden sure liked Mamma McNabb's cooking. He only spent an entire quarter talking about it. After a tough loss in Chicago, Philly bounces back with a much-needed win over the red-hot 'Skins. Pick: Philadelphia 27, Washington 17
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| Brian Griese has thrown four TDs and six interceptions this season. The ratio could improve greatly this weekend. (Al Messerschmidt / Getty Images) |
Tampa Bay at Denver, 4 p.m.
The Brian Griese Bowl! Griese, 3-0 this season since taking over at starter, played in Denver from 1998-2002. He'll light up the giant piece of Swiss cheese posing as the 2008 Broncos defense. Pick: Tampa Bay 34, Denver 17
Buffalo at Arizona, 4:15 p.m.
What's up with Stanford quarterbacks and clutch play? In true John Elway fashion, Trent Edwards has completed 27 of 35 passes (77.1 percent) for 360 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions in fourth quarters this season. The new Mr. Clutch wins another on Sunday. Pick: Buffalo 34, Arizona 20
Cincinnati at Dallas, 4:15 p.m.
I like how the networks are not even attempting to refer to Chad Johnson as "Ocho Cinco" anymore. When you're a mediocre receiver on a horrible team, cutesy names don't really have the same effect. Pick: Dallas 41, Cincinnati 13
New England at San Francisco, 4:15 p.m.
Which Patriots squad will we see on Sunday? After a bye week, they should at least have something they didn't against the Dolphins in Week 3: an offensive game plan. Pick: New England 21, San Francisco 16
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville, 8:15 p.m.
In a rematch of last season's exciting wild-card battle, the Steelers look to get revenge on their old AFC Central foes. They'll have to do it with several replacements filling in at key spots. Pick: Jacksonville 20, Pittsburgh 13
Minnesota at New Orleans, Monday night
Drew Brees is quietly leading the NFL in passing this season. Minnesota is quietly fading away into a world known as "The No-Postseason Zone." Pick: New Orleans 31, Minnesota 16
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