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Cheat Sheet: AFC East's little three finally thriving
NFL Week 17
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Week 17 action
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Vikings 20, Giants 19 -- Recap | Box
Panthers 33, Saints 31 -- Recap | Box
Packers 31, Lions 21 -- Recap | Box
Falcons 31, Rams 27 -- Recap | Box
Texans 31, Bears 24 -- Recap | Box
Patriots 13, Bills 0 -- Recap | Box
Colts 23, Titans 0 -- Recap | Box
Steelers 31, Browns 0 -- Recap | Box
Raiders 31, Bucs 24 -- Recap | Box
Bengals 16, Chiefs 6 -- Recap | Box
Eagles 44, Cowboys 6 -- Recap | Box
Dolphins 24, Jets 17 -- Recap | Box
49ers 27, Redskins 24 -- Recap | Box
Ravens 27, Jaguars 7 -- Recap | Box
Cardinals 34, 'Hawks 24 -- Recap | Box
Chargers 52, Broncos 21 -- Recap | Box
Analysis
Video
Photos
Yes, things are crazy these days, to say the least.
Perhaps no NFL storyline captures the unpredictability of the current state of our nation better than what's going on in the AFC East this season.
Ah, the AFC East, a division that the majority of pundits assumed this summer would consist of the five-time defending division champion New England Patriots and three other NFL squads not worth mentioning.
Yet, here we are more than a month into the season and the AFC East is pretty much wide open. It's quite possibly the hardest division to handicap in the entire league.
For years, while parity and competitive balance existed across the rest of the NFL, the AFC East remained in its own Patriots-colored bubble, isolated from the chaos. Consider that since 2002, no team has ever repeated as champions of the NFC South, while in that same time span, only once has any team other than New England won the division crown (New York in 2002). Year in and year out, it's been Brady's arm, Belichick's hooded sweatshirt, and Kraft's pink ties laying claim to the division title. It's been one never-ending Dropkick Murphys album on loop. All Boston, all the time.
That's no longer the case.
With Brady out with a season-ending injury, the Patriots' grip on the automatic playoff berth is suddenly a lot looser. It just so happens that Buffalo, Miami and New York are all leaps and bounds better than they've been in recent years, as well.
The Bills, though losers last week in Arizona, are off to a tremendous start. Despite giving up 41 points last Sunday, they still boast the league's 10th-rated defense, and for the first time since the late '90s Doug Flutie era are showing consistent signs of a formidable offense. The O is averaging 25 points per game, 11th best in the NFL. Knocked out early in the Arizona game with a concussion from an Adrian Wilson hit, quarterback Trent Edwards will now have two weeks to recover with Buffalo's bye up ahead.
In just his second year, Edwards is having a Pro Bowl-caliber campaign. In four fourth quarters this season, he has completed 27 of 35 passes (77.1 percent) for 360 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The Bills won all four of those contests. Who said John Elway was the only clutch quarterback to come out of Stanford?
Buffalo plays Miami, New York and New England back-to-back-to-back after its Oct. 19 bout with the San Diego. If the Bills can escape that four-game set with two or three wins, they'll be right in the thick of the division title chase come the November-December stretch run. With Edwards at the helm, they've got a legitimate chance to play meaningful January football for the first time since 1999.
The Jets are much improved from last season, too. New York's offense exploded two weeks ago vs. Arizona, and Brett Favre seems to be growing more comfortable with Brian Schottenheimer's offense with every passing week. The O is ranked fifth in the league in scoring, with Favre rated as the league's top passer (110.8). Looking ahead at their schedule, the Jets play Cincinnati (0-5), Oakland (1-3), Kansas City (1-4), and St. Louis (0-4) in four of their next seven games. The Jets may have some major leaks on defense, but they have even more leaks in their schedule. They're contenders.
And then there's Miami, perhaps the league's most pleasant surprise. I'll take the Dolphins' 2-2 start on the chin, here, as I'll admit, I did not see this coming. In a preseason column on this very site, I wrote:
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| There's more to the AFC East than just the Patriots these days. (Jeff Roberson / Associated Press) |
"The 2008 Miami Dolphins are in no way a shoe-in for five wins. They'll be fortunate for such a feat. Aside from a bare bones roster that's got more question marks than the SATs, there's a new front office, new coaching staff, and new offensive and defensive systems to install and master."
Well, I was wrong. Very wrong. Five weeks into the season, Miami's been arguably the most exciting team in the entire league, bolstered by an offensive game plan that's as diverse as it is entertaining and a stout defense that put the clamps on the Patriots and Chargers in consecutive games. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the '08 'Phins are the first team since the 2004 Pittsburgh Steelers to knock off the previous season's conference finalists in back-to-back contests. Keep in mind, this is a team that won just one ballgame all of last year.
The "Wildcat" formation -- where Ronnie Brown takes snaps out of the shotgun -- has worked to perfection. Whereas the Patriots might have been simply caught off guard by the unorthodox offensive setup in Week 3, the Chargers had no answer, despite time to prepare, in Week 5. Miami ran the Wildcat formation 11 times in Sunday's upset victory. It was good for 49 yards, four first downs, and a game-sealing touchdown run by Brown.
Of course, when not in the Wildcat formation, Chad Pennington's been pretty darn good at quarterback, himself. Unceremoniously dumped by the Jets after the Brett Favre trade, the NFL's all-time leader in completion percentage has thrown just one interception on the year. One AFC East fan base's "noodle arm" is apparently another's veteran leader. Though he might not have fit the Jets' future plans, Pennington is very much a valued asset for Miami.
At 3-1, the Patriots are still the odds-on favorites in the AFC East. But unlike previous seasons, it will be no cakewalk.
Those three other squads in their division?
Well, for the first time in what feels like an eternity, they're not so bad themselves.
This week's Cheat Sheet
Chicago at Atlanta, 1 p.m. EST
Chicago's won eight of the last nine meetings between these two teams. For as good as Matt Ryan and Michael Turner have been for the Falcons, Kyle Orton and Matt Forte have been even better. Pick: Chicago 27, Atlanta 16
Miami at Houston, 1 p.m.
"I told you the Dolphins would beat the Chargers last week!" Commenters down below: "Yeah, but you also had the Texans making the playoffs this year, you #*$%* idiot."
Fair point. Pick: Miami 31, Houston 21
Baltimore at Indianapolis, 1 p.m.
The glass half empty guy will tell you that the Colts are two monumental fourth-quarter collapses by the Vikings and Texans away from an 0-4 start. The glass half full guy will assure you that it's the truly great teams that find ways to win games they probably don't deserve to win. Pick: Indianapolis 23, Baltimore 21
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| Don't get too excited, Colts fans. Indy is dangerously close to 0-4. (Dave Einsel / Associated Press) |
Detroit at Minnesota, 1 p.m.
The good news for the Lions? They've scored every time they've been in the red zone this year. The bad news? They've been in the red zone a grand total of four times. Pick: Minnesota 38, Detroit 13
Oakland at New Orleans, 1 p.m.
The last time Raiders RB Darren McFadden went up against a team from Louisiana, he rushed 32 times for 206 yards, completed three passes for 34 yards and scored four touchdowns in a nationally televised game in which his Arkansas Razorbacks beat No. 1-ranked LSU 50-48. Ah, winning . . . it could be quite some time before McFadden gets to experience that again. Pick: New Orleans 27, Oakland 17
Cincinnati at New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Brett Favre aims to become the first Jets QB since Richard Todd in 1981 to record three or more touchdown passes in three consecutive games. Against the Bengals pass defense on Sunday? Favre could do that in the first quarter. Pick: New York Jets 31, Cincinnati 23
Carolina at Tampa Bay, 1 p.m.
In four career starts at Tampa Bay, Jake Delhomme is 4-0 with a 96.9 passer rating. Tampa's D will test him, but I like the Panthers in a close one. Pick: Carolina 20, Tampa Bay 17
St. Louis at Washington, 1 p.m.
The Redskins lead the league in turnover differential and have already beaten four of the best teams in the NFC. The Rams, on the other hand, are just really, really bad. Pick: Washington 34, St. Louis 16
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Jacksonville at Denver, 4:15 p.m.
This matchup always reminds me of the 1996 AFC Divisional Round playoff game, when an unforgettable Jaguars team led by Mark Brunell marched into Denver and upset John Elway's top-seeded Broncos. Alas, the Jags team I watched this past Sunday night is neither unforgettable nor winning in Denver this weekend. Pick: Denver 34, Jacksonville 21
Dallas at Arizona, 4:15 p.m.
Am I the only one who thinks of Jerry Maguire when the Cowboys make the trip to 'Zona? Get ready for some offensive fireworks in this one. Though Arizona should have no problem scoring 30, the Cowboys could score 40. Pick: Dallas 41, Arizona 31
Philadelphia at San Francisco, 4:15 p.m.
McNabb's speaking out, Westbrook's got broken ribs, and the defense looks vulnerable. Who cares? The Phillies are in the NLCS! Relax, Eagles fans. Philly rights the ship on Sunday. Pick: Philadelphia 24, San Francisco 13
Green Bay at Seattle, 4:15 p.m.
When these two teams squared off in the playoffs last year, the Packers entered the Divisional Round match-up as an unstoppable force and the Seahawks boasted a defense with four Pro Bowl players. Ten months later, the Packers have lost three straight and Seattle's defense is looking a lot more like the kid on the schoolyard with the fanny pack around his waist than the bullies we saw each week in '07. Pick: Seattle 20, Green Bay 16
New England at San Diego, 8:15 p.m.
These aren't quite the same Chargers and Patriots that played for the AFC title last year, but they're also not that far off. Don't expect any dancing at midfield on the Chargers logo, but do expect some offense. Pick: San Diego 31, New England 24
New York Giants at Cleveland, Monday night
How about those Giants? Including last year's Super Bowl run, they've now won eight in a row, boast an 18-4 record in their last 22 games and feature the league's top-rated offense and No. 2 defense. As for the Browns? Well, there's always next year. Pick: New York 35, Cleveland 20
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