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Rodgers may be best bet for Pack

by Elliot Harrison, Special to FOXSports.com


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Updated: November 8, 2008, 3:09 PM EST
As I started writing this week's column on Election Day, stressing out if my absentee ballot was counted in my home state of Texas, I began to ponder weird scenarios.

If the state of Wisconsin voted right now on Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre, who would win?

Bigger issue to fans: Officiating or banned performance enhancers?

If you had to vote for the MVP at midseason, who would you pick?

How about the league's best team?

Well, as much as I remember the Titans when I think of good teams, I'm not sure Tennessee makes it out of the AFC playoffs alive. They've been catching a lot of breaks and I've noticed some cracks in the defense.

That said, my vote for MVP right now would be defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth. No one's talking anymore about the tap dance he did on Andre Gurode's head two years ago. Haynesworth is the best player on the league's only unbeaten team while registering six sacks as a nose tackle, who have historically collected sacks at the same rate Condoleezza Rice collected support to be NFL commissioner.

Speaking of defensive tackles and the performance enhancer question, it remains to be seen if Minnesota's twosome of Kevin and Pat Williams will be suspended. Each tested positive for a diuretic often used to mask steroid use. While both players have filed an appeal, I wonder how much fans really care.

Frankly, the Vikings need them against Green Bay this week. Which brings me to my first question: Would Packer fans rather have Favre or Rodgers right now?

I think A-Rodg, and not just because that's a dumber-than-dumb nickname. He's playing as well as Favre — but without the distractions. His preparation while on the bench the last few years, as well as talent, have been integral to his development.

The other factor is head coach Mike McCarthy's willingness to use Rodgers like a veteran. He's letting his quarterback cut loose, as opposed to calling none-yard pass plays to ensure Rodgers doesn't lose the game.

In this week's Film Study, we'll look at Rodgers'and the Packers' offensive performance last week and how it should fare versus the Vikes.

Film Study

Don't be fooled by the Packers taking a hit in the loss column last week, as they should've beaten the Titans (dropping three potential Kerry Collins interceptions didn't help). Offensively, Green Bay gained 390 yards — easily the most yards Tennessee has allowed all season.

McCarthy ran Ryan Grant effectively, which set up a vertical passing game. Despite Grant's twenty carries, the Packers took far more shots downfield than the Titans. Take a look at each quarterback's numbers.

Rodgers vs. Collins
QB Attempts Completions Completions % Yards Yards per attempt
Aaron Rodgers 41 22 53.6 314 7.66
Kerry Collins 37 18 48.6 180 4.86

The important stat here is yards per attempt. For every time each quarterback threw, Rodgers was getting 2.8 yards more than Collins, a huge difference in the NFL.

On the season, Rodgers is averaging 7.56 yards per attempt, good for 10th in the league. Of quarterbacks with as many attempts as Rodgers, only three average more yards per attempt: Drew Brees, Kurt Warner and Jay Cutler.

In layman's terms, McCarthy isn't treating Rodgers like a guy who has only started eight games in his career. The offense is being run as though it were Favre, Bart Starr or the incomparable Lynn Dickey back there.

This isn't "dink and dunk until you drop." McCarthy is letting the kid play.

Of course, coaches generally don't let their quarterbacks go winging it all over the field without some plan of attack. You can't go rogue. Instead, McCarthy sprinkled the vertical section of the playbook amidst several Grant runs.

The offense gained solid yards against a stout Titan defense on a variety of runs, including some "stretch" plays that involve zone blocking where lineman block gaps and not specific players. The offensive line flowed in one direction with Grant following laterally, until he picked a hole to hit — fast.

Grant is best when he makes one cut and goes, which is the premise of the stretch play. Sometimes it's more effective than the slower developing traps and counters because a disruptive interior lineman, like Haynesworth, doesn't get as much time to blow the play up with quick penetration. This holds especially true when a back gets to the edge quickly like Grant. If the defense over pursues and gets to the outside prematurely, that leaves lanes for the back to cut up field.

Early in the season, Grant was missing some of these lanes and wasn't finding backside holes. At other times, like in Week 3 versus Dallas, McCarthy abandoned the ground attack, putting the game on Rodgers' shoulders. The result was a resounding loss.

Last Sunday, the ground game brought the Titans defense in tight, creating opportunities downfield to either Greg Jennings or Donald Driver — especially Driver, who was open the whole second half. When the corners and safeties responded by backing up, McCarthy hit them with the run again.

I expect Grant to be used extensively again Sunday in Minnesota, potentially setting the table for Rodgers and his receivers. Much of the Vikings success, or lack thereof, will be dependent on how well they stop Green Bay's ground game without bringing a safety up.

What I learned

If the two Williams' do their part freeing up linebackers to make tackles — and McCarthy can't lean on Grant — then the Pack could be in trouble.

Last week, the Vikings rarely played with eight in the box because they were playing with a lead and could stop the Texans' running game without using extra defenders. This afforded defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier the luxury of dropping more guys in coverage.

The Vikings corners, Antoine Winfield and Cedric Griffin, will have their hands full with Driver and Jennings. They will be stuck in single coverage a lot if Frazier is forced to blitz to get pressure, something he's done more than expected at times this season. The plus side? Blitzing forces opposing teams to single-block Jared Allen and Kevin Williams, who've combined for 14 sacks.

I'm not giddy over the Viking offense. While Adrian Peterson is ... well, Adrian Peterson, Gus Frerotte is still Gus Frerotte. I don't see him lighting up the Packers secondary.

Pick: Packers

Odds and ends

  • I still don't know who wins the AFC East, but how about the Dolphins? They're 4-4 with a remaining schedule that includes homes games against Seattle, Oakland, New England, and San Francisco, and road games at St. Louis, Buffalo, Kansas City, and the Jets. It doesn't get easier than that.
  • Structure used to have an underwear modeling contest, but I don't think that's why Kevin Williams and Pat Williams were taking diuretics. Then again, you never know.
  • Amazing how little hype the Patriots-Colts game received. Considering their records, it's understandable. But those people who said this rivalry was equal to the 49ers-Cowboys rivalry of the '90s are way off.
  • Flozell Adams Watch: Flo' gave up another sack as the Cowboy offensive line continues to struggle. Uh, Brooks Bollinger was not the answer.

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    I have been a Packers fan all my life. I said this spring the Pack wont win 8 games with Rodgers,,Today against minn was a good, very good show of why! A=R got rattled with all the banging he took! He held the ball way too long when the early slants were open, and tightend was none existant! Thos short under routes will kill a blizzing team, but you have to hit them. Pack will miss playoffs, NJ and no. 4 will probably make it! Having a balanced team as NYJ have saves the forced throws from happening. Pack was wowfully quick to sign a Big $ contract on AR. If you graded TT on management, he probably is only a C, C+ GM

    realcowsrealcows
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    meader99, you're absolutely right, Farve wasn't THE reason. But certainly, he was a key reason. Doesn't the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" rule apply? The "fix" has now gone from 8-1 now to 4-5 ...

    J-E-T-S_FanJ-E-T-S_Fan
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    You may well be right, delagrossa. IMHO, best thing that could have happened to the Jets is what has happened - realizing Favre can't do it alone. One universal truth for his career - the mistakes come when he tries to do too much. But my gripe is with the "experts" like Schein who turn personal dislike of Farve into supposed analysis. The Giants loss in the championship game last year is the perfect example. It takes two seconds to spout out that Farve threw the OT interception. But any thoughtful analysis on the game would quickly show (1) the Packers had no running game, something like 10 yards total; the Packers defense stopped no one; there were no coaching adjustments at all (i.e staying in single coverage v. Burress). The only reason the Packers were in the game was the big plays by Farve. Then the fateful throw at the end, and it's ALL Farve's fault. Didn't the likes of Brady and Romo also lose to the Giants?

    J-E-T-S_FanJ-E-T-S_Fan
    (Report inappropriate content)

    Oh that's right. I keep forgetting that I'm dealing with people that give all the credit of the 13-3 season to Favre and Favre alone. Nevermind.

    meader99meader99
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    Look at all the great things FOXSPORT says about us. And they'll keep you up to date whenever that washed up #4 makes a mistake. Just to prove our point that we did it my way!! I mean the best way for the team. Yeah, that's the ticket.

    DAD77DAD77
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    Yeah, that's the ticket. Forget the wins/losses, look at those great stats!! Yeah, we're building for the future. That's the party line.<br /><br />What? You say the Falcons are rebuilding? Oh, don't mention that. Our statistics are way better. We're just unlucky. Bad breaks.

    DAD77DAD77
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    Gray<br /><br />Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl. You don't need a great QB to win the big one. You need a good team and a QB that doesn't turn the ball over. Sounds like the Packers for the next several years.

    meader99meader99
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    delagrossa<br /><br />You are going to see just how Favre does against the Jets in a couple weeks. I am guessing he is going to add to his number of pick 6's. How many games have the Jets won DESPITE Favre and not because of Favre? Once again, people want to make their case over just this season. The Favre jock sniffers actually believe he is the reason the Packers won the Super Bowl. Evidently they forget about Reggie White, the defense and the fact that a kick returner was MVP of not only the Super Bowl, but of the whole postseason.<br />This whole pipe dream of Favre taking a 4-12 team over and making it successful is ludicrous. The Jets had good draft picks and brought in several notable free agents, but once again Favre gets all the credit. Everyone knows how quickly season to season can spawn different results. Schedule and injuries play a bigger part than just Rodgers vs. Favre. Watching every Packer game this year, I don't know of 1 game that would have turned out any different if Favre was a Packer. Compare last year all you want, bottom line is would the Packers have more wins this year with Favre? I think not.

    meader99meader99
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    Oh and I would like to see how Favre would do against the Titans. HA. That would be a sight to see. over/under 6 interceptions in that one?

    delagrossadelagrossa
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    Hey J-E-T-S fan, if you guys are lucky enough to make the playoffs, wait and see how Favre does then. Can't wait to see his three second half picks in whatever blowout you guys are on the wrong end of in your first playoff game.

    delagrossadelagrossa
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    What is your 40 time these days Elliot?

    PotterHigh23PotterHigh23
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    I think the main question is could Favre have given Green Bay one last gasp based on last years run.<br /><br />Of course they are trying for the future.<br /><br />However they screwed up in a very average NFL especially that division Green Bay may have had a run this year with favre.<br /><br />Rodgers has the recievers, who has he really beaten? I don't get or watch Green bay games but from what I have seen zilch. The defense has won a game or 2.<br /><br />When you have a shot a Super Bowl and they were a running game away last year you give it your best shot the next this isn't doing that! This wasn't Steve Young waiting for Joe Montana!<br /><br />Favres progressing in a tough division setback last week it wouldn't shock me to see the Jets in the Final 4! and I aint a Jets fan......<br /><br />I wouldn't mind seeing him win the whole D A M N Thing I would laugh so hard!

    HansonBrothers2HansonBrothers2
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    Hey Elliott, I asked Schein this but haven't heard back, so maybe you know. When Rodgers dressed up in a civil war uniform for the trip on the team plane earlier this year was he Union or Confederate? Well, whatever. Stabler in a hot tub full of cheerleaders he ain't!

    J-E-T-S_FanJ-E-T-S_Fan
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    A few more comments, if I may. "Should" have beaten the Titans, you say. Are you kidding? The good teams get that DONE, don't they? I appreciate the Titans are 8-0, but let's remember a few things too. Thet Titans were ripe for the taking in that game. First off, by the sheer numbers game - they going to lose sooner or later. Second, they were coming off a short week. Third, the Titans were coming off a brutally physical game. Fourth, the Packers were coming off a BYE!!! And still the Packers couldn't get it done. Ryan hasn't been so hot. Maybe the absence of Farve has something to do with that, as defenses can refocus to stopping the run.

    J-E-T-S_FanJ-E-T-S_Fan
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    The steps some of you supposed experts go to to slice and dice to support a pre-conceived agenda is sometimes amaing. The simple answer: 7-1 last year under Farve at this point, just 4-4 under Rodgers. Will Farve's statistics match up this year with Rodgers. I would think probably not (though he's doing remarkably close). It's Farve, remember, who went to the new system, with new teammates, in a new conference, etc. Rodgers has had three years to adjust, maybe you could give Farve more than a few games. Peyton Manning is having an off year for him. Rodgers has beeter statistics. Are you going to say Rodgers is better than Manning? In the end, there's one statistic that really matters, rights? Wins. New team and all, Farve has taken a 1-7 team last year to 5-3 this year. Rodgers has taken a 7-1 team to 4-4. If Rodgers is better, how can that be? By the way, if you're going to argue something, at least have the courage of your conviction. Rodgers "may" be the best bet. Way to waffle.

    J-E-T-S_FanJ-E-T-S_Fan
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    I dont know why any of you trippen over this, it was about time this happened and if it didnt happen this year the switch woulda happened next year, and you think they made rodgers one of the highest paid quarterbacks on a whim?? I dont think so I'm betting the aging corners have something to do with it

    hawks253hawks253
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    gray<br /><br />This move was done for the success of the future of the Packers. If Green Bay doesn't make the playoffs this year and people deem Rodgers a failure, then they are fools. Frankly, Green Bay probably will win the division. Then what? All Green Bay has to do is win one Super Bowl with Rodgers at the helm and that would qualify Rodgers as doing just as much as Favre ever did. Records are made and records are broken, but the game is played for Championships. Doesn't much matter if Rodgers plays 15 years or 10 as long as he produces as many or more Super Bowls than Favre.

    meader99meader99
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    Yeah, I'll bet he'll never throw as many interceptions. Maybe he won't be a drama queen when the time comes to retire.

    SweetAl39SweetAl39
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    If I may make my opinion.<br /><br />Though I didn't like the way the management handled the Favre situation. At the very least they had a capable if untested QB at the helm. And with one half of a season over, I am damn grateful to have A-Rod take over the reins.<br /><br />Sure I would have loved to see Favre play in his more familiar environs, but what's done is done. Rodgers is now the Pack's QB of the future.<br /><br />It is worth telling that A-Rod has had less INT's than Favre. Granted the Pack's-4 record is a variety of things. Primarily problems at stopping the running game and not capatilizing in the redzone. But overall, Rodgers has proven he belongs in the league.<br /><br />Had Favre come back to the Pack Rodgers may have very well pulled a Hasselbeck and gone for greener pastures. We'd then be stuck with two rookie's at the helm.<br /><br />Bottom line, I wish Favre the best in NY. However, I know who the QB is in GB, and it's the guy with the #12 jersey.

    YankeesPackersYankeesPackers
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    Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.

    DAD77DAD77
    (Report inappropriate content)

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