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Rodgers may be best bet for Pack

by Elliot Harrison, Special to FOXSports.com


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Updated: November 8, 2008, 3:09 PM EST
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As I started writing this week's column on Election Day, stressing out if my absentee ballot was counted in my home state of Texas, I began to ponder weird scenarios.

If the state of Wisconsin voted right now on Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre, who would win?

Bigger issue to fans: Officiating or banned performance enhancers?

If you had to vote for the MVP at midseason, who would you pick?

How about the league's best team?

Well, as much as I remember the Titans when I think of good teams, I'm not sure Tennessee makes it out of the AFC playoffs alive. They've been catching a lot of breaks and I've noticed some cracks in the defense.

That said, my vote for MVP right now would be defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth. No one's talking anymore about the tap dance he did on Andre Gurode's head two years ago. Haynesworth is the best player on the league's only unbeaten team while registering six sacks as a nose tackle, who have historically collected sacks at the same rate Condoleezza Rice collected support to be NFL commissioner.

Speaking of defensive tackles and the performance enhancer question, it remains to be seen if Minnesota's twosome of Kevin and Pat Williams will be suspended. Each tested positive for a diuretic often used to mask steroid use. While both players have filed an appeal, I wonder how much fans really care.

Frankly, the Vikings need them against Green Bay this week. Which brings me to my first question: Would Packer fans rather have Favre or Rodgers right now?

I think A-Rodg, and not just because that's a dumber-than-dumb nickname. He's playing as well as Favre — but without the distractions. His preparation while on the bench the last few years, as well as talent, have been integral to his development.

The other factor is head coach Mike McCarthy's willingness to use Rodgers like a veteran. He's letting his quarterback cut loose, as opposed to calling none-yard pass plays to ensure Rodgers doesn't lose the game.

In this week's Film Study, we'll look at Rodgers'and the Packers' offensive performance last week and how it should fare versus the Vikes.

Film Study

Don't be fooled by the Packers taking a hit in the loss column last week, as they should've beaten the Titans (dropping three potential Kerry Collins interceptions didn't help). Offensively, Green Bay gained 390 yards — easily the most yards Tennessee has allowed all season.

McCarthy ran Ryan Grant effectively, which set up a vertical passing game. Despite Grant's twenty carries, the Packers took far more shots downfield than the Titans. Take a look at each quarterback's numbers.

Rodgers vs. Collins
QB Attempts Completions Completions % Yards Yards per attempt
Aaron Rodgers 41 22 53.6 314 7.66
Kerry Collins 37 18 48.6 180 4.86

The important stat here is yards per attempt. For every time each quarterback threw, Rodgers was getting 2.8 yards more than Collins, a huge difference in the NFL.

On the season, Rodgers is averaging 7.56 yards per attempt, good for 10th in the league. Of quarterbacks with as many attempts as Rodgers, only three average more yards per attempt: Drew Brees, Kurt Warner and Jay Cutler.

In layman's terms, McCarthy isn't treating Rodgers like a guy who has only started eight games in his career. The offense is being run as though it were Favre, Bart Starr or the incomparable Lynn Dickey back there.

This isn't "dink and dunk until you drop." McCarthy is letting the kid play.

Of course, coaches generally don't let their quarterbacks go winging it all over the field without some plan of attack. You can't go rogue. Instead, McCarthy sprinkled the vertical section of the playbook amidst several Grant runs.

The offense gained solid yards against a stout Titan defense on a variety of runs, including some "stretch" plays that involve zone blocking where lineman block gaps and not specific players. The offensive line flowed in one direction with Grant following laterally, until he picked a hole to hit — fast.

Grant is best when he makes one cut and goes, which is the premise of the stretch play. Sometimes it's more effective than the slower developing traps and counters because a disruptive interior lineman, like Haynesworth, doesn't get as much time to blow the play up with quick penetration. This holds especially true when a back gets to the edge quickly like Grant. If the defense over pursues and gets to the outside prematurely, that leaves lanes for the back to cut up field.

Early in the season, Grant was missing some of these lanes and wasn't finding backside holes. At other times, like in Week 3 versus Dallas, McCarthy abandoned the ground attack, putting the game on Rodgers' shoulders. The result was a resounding loss.

Last Sunday, the ground game brought the Titans defense in tight, creating opportunities downfield to either Greg Jennings or Donald Driver — especially Driver, who was open the whole second half. When the corners and safeties responded by backing up, McCarthy hit them with the run again.

I expect Grant to be used extensively again Sunday in Minnesota, potentially setting the table for Rodgers and his receivers. Much of the Vikings success, or lack thereof, will be dependent on how well they stop Green Bay's ground game without bringing a safety up.

What I learned

If the two Williams' do their part freeing up linebackers to make tackles — and McCarthy can't lean on Grant — then the Pack could be in trouble.

Last week, the Vikings rarely played with eight in the box because they were playing with a lead and could stop the Texans' running game without using extra defenders. This afforded defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier the luxury of dropping more guys in coverage.

The Vikings corners, Antoine Winfield and Cedric Griffin, will have their hands full with Driver and Jennings. They will be stuck in single coverage a lot if Frazier is forced to blitz to get pressure, something he's done more than expected at times this season. The plus side? Blitzing forces opposing teams to single-block Jared Allen and Kevin Williams, who've combined for 14 sacks.

I'm not giddy over the Viking offense. While Adrian Peterson is ... well, Adrian Peterson, Gus Frerotte is still Gus Frerotte. I don't see him lighting up the Packers secondary.

Pick: Packers

Odds and ends

  • I still don't know who wins the AFC East, but how about the Dolphins? They're 4-4 with a remaining schedule that includes homes games against Seattle, Oakland, New England, and San Francisco, and road games at St. Louis, Buffalo, Kansas City, and the Jets. It doesn't get easier than that.
  • Structure used to have an underwear modeling contest, but I don't think that's why Kevin Williams and Pat Williams were taking diuretics. Then again, you never know.
  • Amazing how little hype the Patriots-Colts game received. Considering their records, it's understandable. But those people who said this rivalry was equal to the 49ers-Cowboys rivalry of the '90s are way off.
  • Flozell Adams Watch: Flo' gave up another sack as the Cowboy offensive line continues to struggle. Uh, Brooks Bollinger was not the answer.

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