Biggest high-risk, high-reward picks of '09 draft
by Jeff Legwold, Special to FOXSports.com
They toss aside the usual lip service paid to character or good health, shoving the under-achievers past the over-achievers, hoping to fill the inside straight.
And with most of this year's rookie class having already been formally introduced to their new employers in minicamps around the league, these are some of the biggest risks taken off the draft boards. Some were early, some late, but keep an eye on ...
Chris "Beanie" Wells, RB, Cardinals
His back-to-back 1,100-yard seasons, a career 5.79 yards-per-carry average and a hand-timed 40-yard dash in the low 4.4s at 235 pounds in his campus workout would seem to scream "Gimme the rock 30 times and get out of the way."
But despite all that Wells still slipped to the 31st spot in a year when the overall quality of the draft board was not impressive.
The issue: For some it was a foot injury there are those in the league who say he has a problem with a sesamoid bone (a small bone that is embedded in a joint capsule or tendon) that troubled them.
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Wells did miss only three games in his collegiate career, but for others it was still his overall durability that was the question mark. Several scouts said after the draft they had made several trips to Ohio State to see Wells practice and Wells didn't practice on any of those days.
He did play with a fractured wrist in '07 and left several games that season because of ankle pain, but Wells is a big-bodied runner who figures to take some hits in his professional career.
The Cardinals want it all from Wells, who's basically already in a battle with Tim Hightower for the team's starting running back job after Edgerrin James' release.
Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers
Yes, many teams, many scouts and many personnel executives believe him to be the best player in this year's draft.
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Yes, he's big, strong, athletic and piled up the catches, yardage and touchdowns.
But a broken foot is a broken foot and there may be no more unpredictable weight-bearing fracture in the human body. And to draft a player before you have all the information is and will always be a risk, especially in the top 10.
No team has put a clock on Crabtree as he recovers from foot surgery. People have long said the game video doesn't lie, that what you see in college games is what you get as a pro, yet every year the league is littered with general managers shaking their heads at some guys who just aren't as fast as they looked.
B.J. Raji, NT, Packers
Facing a switch to a 3-4 defense and with no nose tackle to play in it over the long haul, even Ted Thompson couldn't resist. Thompson, the Packers general manager who trades down almost as often as he makes a pick, jumped at the chance to grab Raji with the ninth pick overall.
Why? Because Raji answers one of the team's biggest help-wanted ads.
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Joe Collier, a long-time practitioner of the 3-4 and the coach Bill Belichick has credited for showing him the defense in the late '70s, has called it "easily the most important and hardest position to fill in the defense.''
So, the Packers made Raji the first nose tackle candidate taken with a top-10 pick since the Falcons took Tony Casillas in 1986.
And despite his big-time potential, this is still a player who missed a year because of academics and who has publicly admitted to testing positive for marijuana.
Raji will also likely see some time on the nose in a rotation in the coming season, but the transition from college defensive tackle can be a difficult one since few college teams ever line a player up directly over the center.
Percy Harvin, WR/RB, Vikings
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The Vikings have been down the old risk/reward avenue before in recent years (i.e. Moss, Randy; or Underwood, Dimitrius; or Smith, Onterrio) and jumped in again with Harvin at 22nd overall.
Harvin may be a man without a position in the NFL, athletically gifted but likely too small to be a full-time running back and too unrefined in his route running to be a full-time receiver at the moment.
There is also the matter of his positive drug test at the combine.
But he was one of the fastest players on the board and scored a touchdown once every 6.5 touches this past season. And a team in need of all that simply looked past the rest.
Bernard Scott, RB, Bengals
Ah, the Bengals, who keep slapping their hands on the stove no matter how many times they get burned.
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Scott's numbers are staggering back-to-back 2,100-yard rushing seasons with at least 28 rushing touchdowns and 46 receptions in both as well but he does bring some off-the-field baggage with him.
He was thrown off his team at Central Arkansas for what scouts said was an altercation with a coach, ran into trouble at Blinn Junior College and has had multiple arrests at least five, though charges were eventually dropped in all but one, for failing to identify himself in a traffic stop in Abilene in the spring of '07.
On the field, Scott showed some explosiveness in the team's rookie minicamp and quickness into the hole to go with above-average receiving skills. However, he needs work in pass protection and until he fixes that he cannot play in third-down situations.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Raiders
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Much like Kevin Dyson once lived with the weight of being the-guy-who-was-taken-before-Moss, Heyward-Bey will always be "the guy who was taken before Crabtree."
He was a risk for the Raiders at No. 7 overall because of his inconsistency catching the ball. Also, despite his elite speed he had just one 50-catch season in college, and that was a mere 51 catches in '07.
Heyward-Bey finds himself in the Raiders' mix with fellow rookie Louis Murphy to go with Johnnie Lee Higgins, Chaz Schilens and Javon Walker. It's a crowd and Heyward-Bey can run his way out of it with some consistency catching the ball.
Paul Kruger, DE, Ravens
A long-time AFC personnel executive was asked this past week why teams draft so many players with checkered medical histories so high and he said "because doctors can't scout worth a (expletive)."
Still, some teams take big medical risks, some do not. The Ravens may have taken one when they selected Kruger in the second round.
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Kruger had his spleen removed as well as a kidney when a Jeep rolled over on him when he was 13. He was also stabbed twice in the ribs in an off-campus fight this past January and needed 50 staples to close the wounds in emergency surgery. Some teams feared the ramifications of a player at such a high-contact position having just one kidney, but the former quarterback was also consistently lauded for his toughness.
Though he does not play along the line of scrimmage it was Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie's he has just one kidney success with the Cardinals in his rookie season in 2008 that may have also nudged Kruger up the board.
But these risks are not alone. There are others ...
Like cornerback Donald Washington, who was suspended for two games this past season at Ohio State and played as a reserve for much of his career with the Buckeyes, who went in the fourth round to the Chiefs. The Chiefs have not yet had a minicamp, but Washington joins a young nucleus of defensive backs that includes Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr, second- and fifth-round picks in the '08 draft.
Or wide receiver Brandon Tate, who tore his right ACL and MCL this past season and was also on the list of players who tested positive on the drug test at the combine. He went in the third round to the Patriots, showing even the no-nonsense Belichick will spin the wheel for the NCAA's career leader in combined kickoff and punt return yardage. There is at least some uncertainty about when Tate will be healthy enough to play in '09 and he hasn't participated in any of the team's work so far.
Or Vontae Davis, a cornerback with breathtaking physical skills but whose willingness to be coached and on-field discipline were questioned by many teams before the draft, who still found himself selected in the opening round by the take-no-crap, lemme-buy-the-groceries Bill Parcells.
Parcells also grabbed USC wide receiver Patrick Turner, who many scouts simply labeled an underachiever. A 6-foot-5, 223-pound wide receiver who didn't have more than three touchdown catches in a season until he was a senior and didn't have a 50-catch year in his time with the Trojans.
Davis struggled at times in some no-contact work in the Dolphins' first minicamp no jam at the line of scrimmage so little can be gauged from that. For his part Turner showed a willingness to work the middle of the field in early drills and may have a chance to be a third-down option as well as inside the 20 when his size could give him an advantage.
History says some will get the last word on all this, some will not. And that more will always be willing to take risks than ever see the rewards.
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