NFL Third Quarter Report: How things have changed

The final whistle early Tuesday morning didn't just end New Orleans' 38-17 rout of New England. It was also a reminder that the most important stretch of the NFL season is about to begin. The Saints closed November with an 11-0 mark like their spotless AFC counterpart Indianapolis. But the old adage that real football starts in December is proven apt every year. Flash back to 2008. After Week 12, Tennessee and the New York Giants were sitting atop the league with 10-1 records. Both ultimately lost their first playoff game. Philadelphia was 5-5-1. The Eagles rallied for an NFC championship game appearance. So where do we stand at the three-quarter mark of this NFL campaign? Here's the breakdown — along with reflection at how drastically some things have changed since my first-quarter report card in early October.

Which team is most ready for Super Bowl XLIV?

Third-quarter pick: New Orleans. A friend at NFL headquarters said the Saints remind him of the 1999 St. Louis Rams. Spot on. That Rams squad had an unstoppable offense and a supporting defense good enough to win a Super Bowl. What the Saints are accomplishing now may be an even greater show on turf. The 407 points New Orleans has scored marks the fourth-highest total after 11 games in NFL history. Some of that credit goes to an opportunistic defense that has added seven returns for touchdowns. Runner-up status goes to Minnesota and Indianapolis. The Vikings have a more dominating defense than New Orleans — especially against the run — and an offense that is improving each week. The Colts are the first team to ever win five consecutive games after trailing while entering the fourth quarter. That's proof of clutch play, but also shows how close the Colts are skirting with imperfection. First-quarter pick: The Giants. A Week 6 blowout loss to the Saints started a massive slide after a 5-0 start. This squad has regressed across the board, especially the offensive and defensive lines that are customarily a team strength. If the Giants don't win their next two home games against Dallas and Philadelphia, the season is essentially over.

Biggest storyline

Third-quarter pick: Quarterbacks. Can an NFL Most Valuable Player vote get split into thirds? That's something ballotters (including myself) may be asking if Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Brett Favre continue their superlative play. The trio is overshadowing campaigns from fellow quarterbacks San Diego's Philip Rivers and New England's Tom Brady that would have drawn strong MVP consideration in other seasons. Other major quarterback storylines include the career rebirth of Tennessee's Vince Young and San Francisco's Alex Smith, the growing pains of rookies Mark Sanchez and Matthew Stafford, and the demise of Buffalo's Trent Edwards, Carolina's Jake Delhomme and St. Louis' Marc Bulger. First-quarter pick: Quarterbacks.

Biggest lesson learned

Third-quarter pick: The NFL has gotten serious about concussions. This happened shortly after Congress began questioning what the NFL was doing to prevent and treat head trauma. The caution teams are taking with injured players is refreshing, even if numbskulls like Pittsburgh wide receiver Hines Ward would question a teammate's toughness (quarterback Ben Roethlisberger) for not playing with a concussion. This also is a large step toward helping to minimize the health issues affecting previous generations of players who were too often led to believe that being "dinged" wasn't a big deal. First-quarter pick: Philadelphia Eagles fans don't boo everyone (i.e. Michael Vick). The Eagles faithful still haven't turned on Vick, but the love affair has cooled. Vick hasn't made anywhere near the kind of offensive impact expected when he signed in August. In fact, his Sunday return to Atlanta isn't the major headline story initially expected entering this weekend's games. That's remarkable considering how much media attention enshrouded Vick during his dog-fighting ordeal.

Surprise team

Third-quarter pick: Cincinnati. I'd love to see a Bengals-Saints Super Bowl simply to settle the ongoing "Who Dey?" vs. "Who Dat?" debate. In all seriousness, Cincinnati finally appears to have gotten it together with a 6-0 division record, outstanding offensive line play, and nasty defense with top-notch cornerbacks Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph. Road games against Minnesota and San Diego in Weeks 14 and 15 will provide a litmus test of how good the Bengals truly are. First-quarter pick: Denver. At 7-4, the Broncos are still a pleasant surprise considering the low expectations surrounding the team when the season began. Denver, though, still runs the risk of missing the playoffs after a 6-0 start.

Surprise player

Third-quarter pick: Minnesota WR Sidney Rice Favre is in line for a nice Christmas gift. Rice had done little in two NFL seasons before No. 4 arrived in Minnesota. Rice now has more receiving yardage (964 yards) and a higher per-catch average (17.2) than such elite wideouts as Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson and Chad Ochocinco. First-quarter pick: Giants WRs Steve Smith and Mario Manningham. Both are still enjoying career years, but like the Giants themselves, Smith and Manningham have both come back to earth after quick starts.

Surprise coach

Third-quarter pick: Indianapolis' Jim Caldwell Shula, Landry, Noll, Lombardi. None of those icons or any other rookie coach in NFL history has ever won their first 11 games. Caldwell has benefited from having a talented roster and brilliant front office already in place, but that shouldn't minimize the splendid job he has done replacing another coaching legend in Tony Dungy. First-quarter pick: San Francisco's Mike Singletary. The 49ers (5-6) are back to middle-of-the-road status after a 3-1 start, but Singletary is growing as a head coach. The improvement of players like Alex Smith, tight end Vernon Davis, nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin and defensive end Ray McDonald also speaks well of Singletary's assistants.

Disappointing team

Third-quarter pick: Pittsburgh. The Steelers (6-5) control their own postseason destiny, but three consecutive losses show this clearly isn't the same caliber of team that won Super Bowl XLIII. The defense has slumped from outstanding to slightly above average without injured safety Troy Polamalu. Special teams coverage is even more disastrous. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has warned that his team will "unleash hell" in December, but the odds of South Florida icing over for Super Bowl XLIV seem better than a repeat appearance by the Steelers. First-quarter pick: Tennessee. While still disappointing after last year's 13-3 record, the Titans (5-6) are less so now after winning five straight games.

Disappointing player

Third-quarter pick: Chicago QB Jay Cutler Remember the Ferris Bueller-style parade that Bears fans were expecting through the streets of Chicago in early February? It's time to cancel the confetti order. The Bears (4-7) are doomed and Cutler's NFL-high 20 interceptions are a major reason why. Cutler needs improved coaching and a better offensive system if he is going to regain the Pro Bowl form he displayed last season in Denver. First-quarter pick: Carolina QB Jake Delhomme He's still disappointing but not as much as Cutler. Only Panthers coach John Fox and general manager Marty Hurney believed Delhomme (8-to-18 touchdown/interception ratio, 55.5 completion percentage) was worthy of a contract extension during the 2009 offseason. The Panthers future of all three is now in question.

Hot-seat coach

Third-quarter pick: Gary Kubiak The Texans (5-6) have lacked a killer instinct in close games, especially when playing Indianapolis. Kubiak has five games to find some locker-room leadership or his coaching career in Houston will flat-line. First-quarter pick: Buffalo's Dick Jauron He's no longer eligible. Jauron was the first and only head coach fired during the season.

Comeback player

Third-quarter pick: Tom Brady Because he's been Tom Terrific for so long, we tend to take Brady's efforts for granted. That shouldn't be the case. After a slow start in his return from a serious knee injury, Brady has regained the form that made him a three-time Super Bowl winner. Unfortunately for the Patriots, a leaky defense hasn't done the same. First-quarter pick: Cincinnati QB Carson Palmer He's done a nice job guiding the Bengals since returning from elbow problems but there are more worthy candidates.

Top five MVP candidates

1. Manning: He gets the nod over Brees because Indianapolis has a much weaker running game and less experienced wide receivers. None of that has kept Manning from heading toward his NFL-record fourth MVP crown. 2. Brees: Brees was actually more impressive against the Patriots than Manning in last month's Colts comeback victory. Only one other quarterback in NFL history (Brady) had ever thrown five touchdown passes, completed at least 75 percent of their passes and tallied more than 350 yards without tossing an interception. Amazingly, Brees would have hit those marks earlier in the season with one more touchdown against the Giants. 3. Favre: Not even Father Time can catch Favre, who is playing better at age 40 than earlier in his Hall of Fame career. 4. Tennessee RB Chris Johnson: The more Tennessee keeps winning, the more Johnson's name will surface among the frontrunners. Johnson is coming off the most productive month ever for an NFL running back with 800 yards in five November games. 5. Rivers: He is flying under the radar, but Rivers ranks among the league's best quarterbacks. He also guided San Diego (8-3) through a rough early-season stretch. First-quarter picks: 1. Manning, 2. Brees, 3. Brady, 4. Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson, 5. Minnesota DE Jared Allen/San Francisco LB Patrick Willis. Peterson is still a great player but doesn't have to carry the offensive load as much thanks to Favre's arrival. Allen and Willis are Defensive Player of the Year candidates.

Top five rookies

1. Minnesota WR Percy Harvin: Mercy, Percy! Like with Rice, Harvin is making a bigger impact than expected. Thirty-two of his 42 catches have resulted in first downs. He also is dangerous on kickoff returns. 2. Houston LB Brian Cushing: Houston found the impact outside linebacker it was sorely lacking. Cushing ranks third in the NFL in tackles (99) with three interceptions and 1.5 sacks. 3. New York Jets QB Mark Sanchez: Sanchez hasn't always lived up to the "Sanchize" nickname bestowed upon him after a 3-0 start. But he is hanging tough through growing pains while keeping the Jets (5-6) in playoff contention. 4. Buffalo S Jairus Byrd: Byrd began to take flight in Week Five with eight interceptions in a five-game span. 5. St. Louis Rams LB James Laurinaitis: His 85 tackles rank second to Cushing among rookies. Laurinaitis also has more defensive responsibilities as a middle linebacker than Cushing, who plays on the strong side. First-quarter picks: 1. Sanchez, 2. Laurinaitis, 3. Chicago WR Johnny Knox, 4. Minnesota RT Phil Loadholt, 5. Detroit QB Matthew Stafford. Knox, Loadholt and Stafford still have promising futures, but other rookies have moved higher on the totem pole.