National Football League

Playoff scenarios for AFC contenders

Published Jan. 1, 2011 12:00 a.m. ET

Alex Marvez

Although it didn't work out like he planned, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell got what he wanted: some excitement in Week 17.

Goodell had the NFL restructure its scheduling formula to feature a slate comprised entirely of divisional matchups. The thinking is that such pairings would likely generate some pivotal head-to-head matchups in the regular season's final week and decrease the likelihood of lemons that had marred the end of previous campaigns.

As it turned out, only one game — St. Louis vs. Seattle — will directly determine a division title. But as many as nine other contests could have an impact on postseason berths and seeding.

Here is a breakdown of how the postseason is shaping up and the impact that Sunday's games will make on the playoff picture:

AFC | NFC

Playoff qualifiers

New England (13-2)

Best-case scenario: The Patriots already have achieved it by clinching home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

Worst-case scenario: New England loses a player to injury in Sunday's meaningless season-finale against visiting Miami. The Patriots already had qualified for the postseason in 2009 but tried to secure the No. 3 seed by playing starters in Week 17 against Houston. Wide receiver Wes Welker tore two knee ligaments in the first quarter and was lost for the playoffs. The Patriots then lost at home the following week to Baltimore.

Playoff forecast: The Patriots are the clear favorite to win Super Bowl XLV. New England has won seven straight and is set to break the NFL single-season record for fewest turnovers. The Pats have committed only nine through 15 games. Patriots quarterback Tom Brady also has won 27 of his past 28 starts (playoff and regular season) at Gillette Stadium. But that doesn't mean New England is invincible. While the Jets were trounced 45-3 in a Week 13 road loss, New York also topped the Patriots in the season's second game. Baltimore always plays the Patriots tough, while Matt Cassel-led Kansas City could provide an intriguing matchup because of all the former New England coaches on the Chiefs' staff.

Pittsburgh (11-4)

Best-case scenario: A victory Sunday against slumping Cleveland would secure the AFC North title and the No. 2 seed that brings a bye week.

Worst-case scenario: The Steelers lose to Cleveland, Baltimore defeats Cincinnati and the New York Jets top Buffalo. The Ravens would win the AFC North and Pittsburgh would fall to the No. 6 seed behind the Jets because of New York's 22-17 victory at Heinz Field in Week 15.

Playoff forecast: The Steelers could desperately use a bye with safety Troy Polamalu (Achilles' tendon), quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (foot/nose) and defensive end Aaron Smith (triceps) ailing.

Kansas City (10-5)

Best-case scenario: Defeating visiting Oakland would clinch the No. 3 playoff seed.

Worst-case scenario: The Raiders win and Indianapolis defeats Tennessee at home. That would drop Kansas City to the No. 4 seed because of the Colts having defeated the Chiefs 19-9 in Week 5.

Playoff forecast: The difference between the No. 3 and No. 4 seed is usually inconsequential. But lower seeds have gotten to host conference championship games in two of the previous four seasons because of divisional-round upsets. This gives a Kansas City squad that is 7-0 this season at home plenty of incentive to win against the Raiders.

Baltimore (11-4)

Best-case scenario: The Ravens defeat Cincinnati and Pittsburgh loses to Cleveland. That would give Baltimore the No. 2 seed.

Worst-case scenario: The Ravens lose or Pittsburgh wins. If the Ravens and Steelers both finish with the same record, Pittsburgh gets the tiebreaker nod because of a better division record (5-1 to 4-2).

Playoff forecast: Baltimore wouldn't be fazed by having to leave the comfortable confines of M&T Bank Stadium. The Ravens played all five of their postseason games on the road over the past two seasons and posted an impressive 3-2 record. But let's not kid ourselves: Baltimore's chances for a Super Bowl run would be greatly improved with at least a one-game homestand.

New York Jets (10-5)

Best-case scenario: The combination of a Jets win over Buffalo and either Pittsburgh or Baltimore losing. That would elevate New York to a No. 5 seed.

Worst-case scenario: A loss to Buffalo would further accelerate New York's late-season slide entering the playoffs. This could very well happen with the Jets not planning to play quarterback Mark Sanchez (shoulder) for the entire game if at all.

Playoff forecast: New York backed into the playoffs last season and made a surprising run to the AFC championship game. December losses at New England and Chicago don't inspire much confidence that the Jets can do the same this season.

Playoff contenders

Indianapolis (9-6)

Best-case scenario: A No. 3 playoff seed. That will happen if the Colts defeat Tennessee and Kansas City loses at home to Oakland. The Chiefs and Colts would both finish 10-6 but Indianapolis would hold the tiebreaker edge for the No. 3 seed because of its prior victory over Kansas City.

Worst-case scenario: The Colts get eliminated with a loss to the Titans and a Jacksonville win at Houston. That's because the Jaguars would have a better division record (4-2) than Indianapolis (3-3).

Playoff forecast: Baltimore, Pittsburgh and the New York Jets are potential first-round opponents. The Steelers and Jets field 3-4 defenses that tend to give Colts quarterback Peyton Manning more trouble than 4-3 schemes. Indianapolis has defeated the Ravens three times in the past two seasons, including a 20-3 home win in last season's divisional playoff round.

Jacksonville (8-7)

Best-case scenario: Indianapolis gets upset at home by Tennessee and the visiting Jaguars best Houston to win the AFC South.

Worst-case scenario: The Jaguars can't overcome the absence of quarterback David Garrard (thumb) and running back Maurice Jones-Drew (knee) and eliminate themselves by losing to the slumping Texans.

Playoff forecast: Jones-Drew could be healthy enough to return for the playoffs, but Garrard is done for the year and will be replaced by ex-Buffalo starter Trent Edwards. The Jaguars would be the No. 4 AFC seed if they qualified to host their first playoff game since 1999. Potential opponents are the New York Jets, Pittsburgh and Baltimore — none of whom played Jacksonville this season.

Overall forecast

New England (13-3)
Pittsburgh (12-4)
Kansas City (11-5)
Indianapolis (10-6)
Baltimore (12-4)
New York Jets (10-6)