Countdown: Jets' defense could hold back the Colts

N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis, 3:00 ET (CBS)

WHAT TO WATCH FOR: The Rex Ryan formula has been working thus far, and the Colts will see plenty of controlled passing from Jets rookie Mark Sanchez and a lot of running from Thomas Jones and rookie Shonn Greene, who obviously has fresh legs for the playoffs. Yes, the Colts stuffed Baltimore’s running game last weekend, but New York’s offensive line is a tad stronger, especially as run blockers. Guard Alan Faneca has made a career out of stoning defensive linemen.

If the Colts can’t stop the running game, look for backup QB Brad Smith to get some snaps out of the wildcat formation. Smith has game-breaking speed; remember, he returned a kickoff for a touchdown the last time the Jets won in Indianapolis.

It looks like Colts rookie CB Jerraud Powers (foot) won’t play, and he’d be replaced by fellow rookie Jacob Lacey.

The Jets defense has been playing very well of late, and you can expect CB Darrelle Revis to take either Reggie Wayne or Dallas Clark out of the game. Expect MVP Peyton Manning to attack New York with formations where the receivers are in bunches, forcing New York to play man-to-man and for Manning to find the open receiver off that triangle type of look. Manning is an extremely accurate passer, and he can fit passes into tight areas. In fact, the Colts may junk their running game, knowing how ineffective San Diego’s was against Ryan’s defense. Many NFL coaches believe Norv Turner stuck with his running game a tad too long in last week’s loss.

The Jets secondary is capable of switching expertly from zone to man coverage, but the concern is the pass rush won’t get to Manning, who makes quick decisions and rarely takes a sack. Manning is also very good at making play adjustments at the line of scrimmage, something Philip Rivers didn’t do well last Sunday.

Jets DE Shaun Ellis broke his left hand against the Chargers. He will play today, but Mike DeVito will see more rotations.

This is the first time in AFC championship history that two rookie head coaches, Ryan and the Colts’ Jim Caldwell, have met, one game away from the Super Bowl. You have to wonder which one will blink first under the pressure; Ryan didn’t last week, and Caldwell didn’t either when the Ravens were playing well late into the first half.

CZAR’S SCOOP: All you ever want to know about Jimmy Irsay, the Colts owner, is in the new Sports Illustrated. Irsay has done a total 180 in his life after he quit drinking and cleaned up his life. He’s now considered one of the league’s best owners after being considered more than a little offbeat by many of the other owners when he first replaced his late father, Bob, more than 13 years ago.

Everyone talks about Manning being the greatest quarterback of all time, but he’s only 8-8 in the playoffs. Sanchez is now 2-0, and he has 282 yards passing, two TDs and one interception in the Jets’ two playoff victories. “I do feel more comfortable as the days go on, as you get more experience each game; there’s no substitute for that,” Sanchez said. “The big difference these last few games has been understanding what gets you a win and also knowing what gets you beat. And that’s turnovers.”

Sanchez has thrown a touchdown pass to TE Dustin Keller in each game, the last one on third down in the red zone. “I like his confidence,” Jets WR Braylon Edwards said. “He’s always so calm, it kind of allows him to think he can make any throw, and it gives you chances. I think Mark is extremely good. I think he has a chance to be one of the better ones in this league if everything keeps going like it is.” The Jets are trying to keep Edwards for next season. Also, Jets players seem to like Sanchez, making sure we all know the rookie isn’t arrogant.