National Football League

Sunday's divisional-round countdown

Published Jan. 16, 2011 12:00 a.m. ET

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Las Vegas reads this game one way: the Bears are going to romp, staked as 10.5 point favorites over the Seahawks. Common sense says Chicago should win. The Bears won 11 games this season and are the No. 2 seed in the NFC. Both teams will be playing in Chicago weather, temperatures in the low 20s with a slight chance of precipitation.

The beauty of this game is that few if any would have predicted this playoff matchup in training camp. The Bears were pegged by most to finish third in the North behind the Packers and Vikings. With a new coach in Pete Carroll and a subpar talent base, the Seahawks weren’t considered a challenger to win the West. San Francisco was the fashionable preseason pick.

Just a couple weeks ago, the NFL Nation was up in arms that a team with a 7-9 record would be in the playoffs, let alone host a playoff game. The Seahawks made the most of their opportunity in upsetting the defending champs last weekend. They come to Chicago with some confidence after looking dreadful at the end of the season, losing five of their final seven games.

“The best thing about our win is that it does give our team some confidence,” quarterback Matt Hasselbeck said this week. “Yes, it was a big upset, but Pete had us believing that we had a chance to win. Then the game just snowballed for us.”

There is no doubt that Seattle has played smart, efficient football in the wins over the Rams and the Saints. They are also playing with “house” money. They have nothing to lose and already Carroll and offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates have shown a penchant for going for broke.

The Bears better be prepared for the unexpected.

They know that Seattle isn’t good enough to simply knock them in the mouth and beat them physically. They have to trick them and Hasselbeck must play flawlessly, once again. He did it against the Saints. Plus, some would say Seattle’s offensive line as a whole is more talented than Chicago’s, whose effectiveness has been predicated on Mike Tice’s smoke and mirrors coaching approach.

The most intriguing player, though, in this game is Jay Cutler. This is his first playoff game and the expectations are high. He’s had some brutal throwing games this season like DeAngelo Hall’s four interception game that basically punched his ticket to the Pro Bowl.

Could Cutler have a meltdown if the game gets tight? Will he properly protect the ball? Or will he throw interceptions of his back foot when under pressure? We’ve seen all of those situations this season and the results haven’t been pretty.

The playoffs are all about taking care of business. It’s one and done. We’ll soon find out if Cutler can deal with the home-town pressure.

Seattle at Chicago, 1 p.m. ET on FOX

When the Seahawks won in Chicago back on Oct. 17 it initiated the transformation of Mike Martz’s offense. DeAngelo Hall intercepted Jay Cutler four times the following Sunday and Martz had no choice but to balance the offense.

Down the stretch, the Bears have actually run more than Cutler has thrown and that dimension helped them win the North. This is why it’s difficult to accept that Seattle can duplicate the pass pressure (six Cutler sacks) from their win simply because the Bears are a totally different offensive team.

Seattle was fortunate last week that the Saints didn't have their proven inside runners like Chris Ivory. The Bears will be geared up to give Matt Forte 20 carries and then work play action and plenty of bootlegs to keep Cutler safe.

Seattle actually outrushed Chicago in October, but the Bears plan to clamp down on Marshawn Lynch and look for defensive end Julius Peppers to make life miserable for rookie left tackle Russell Okung with inside moves, putting pressure on his tender ankle.

Seattle gave up 397 passing yards last week, so big completions will be there as long as Cutler avoids turnovers.

And Seattle must not miss these turnover opportunities like an errant Cutler pass or a fumble. Seattle is susceptible to deep post routes because of the speed of Chicago receivers Johnny Knox and Devin Hester. Look for Cutler to target strong safety Lawyer Milloy and cornerback Kelly Jennings.

Seahawks wide receiver Mike Williams caught 10 passes for 123 yards in the October game and his size and toughness are ideal against Chicago’s Cover 2 defense. Williams and Ben Obomanu are precision route runners and Hasselbeck is going to need time to connect with them and also tight end John Carlson and Brandon Stokely, who came up big against the Saints. Carlson had two touchdowns.

Hasselbeck had 13 turnovers during a four-game stretch late in the season and then suffered a hip injury that caused him to miss the Rams’ game. Hasselbeck has thrown a touchdown pass in nine consecutive playoff games. This is Jay Cutler’s first playoff start. Hasselbeck is 5-5 as a postseason starter.

CZAR’S SCOOP: Although Pete Carroll said all the right things in regards to Hasselbeck, who is without a contract for next season, being back with the Seahawks next season, those involved know that his play today will be a more significant statement on his Seattle future.

If he plays poorly, who knows what Carroll will offer in terms of a 2011 contract?

The Seahawks did the smart thing in re-signing wide receiver Ben Obomanu to a three-year contract extension. Obomanu has epitomized the “effort guys” that the Carroll loves so much.

Although a lot has been written about Seattle’s 284 personnel transactions during the 2010 season, many bad teams make over 200 personnel moves in a typical year.

Speaking of contracts, the Bears may wait to see how their team responds in the playoffs before extending a long-term contract to Lovie Smith. With John Fox signing for $2.5 million in Denver after earning close to $6 million in Carolina this season, it shows that ownership can roll back salaries and still hire quality coaches. Both Pat Shurmur in Cleveland and Leslie Frazier in Minnesota received contracts in the same range as Fox while Ron Rivera got $2.8 million in Carolina. Smith earned $5 million this season.

The strength of the Bears’ defense remains their front seven and they have to dominate to win this game.

N.Y. Jets at New England, 4:30 p.m. ET

Yes, Rex Ryan and the Jets have made this game very personal. But that’s the Jets; they are an emotional bunch. That’s why Ryan is calling this playoff game the second biggest game in team history. Ryan got outcoached in the last game here, the Patriots’ 45-3 blowout win. He won’t this time.

He knows his defense must control Tom Brady’s underneath receivers while also applying some pass-rush pressure. The Jets must knock Brady around – they hit him only three times in the last game -- and deny him his first throwing look.

The Jets will want to force New England into 10 and 12-play drives and deprive them of the big play. On the flip side, Brady will look to attack cornerback Antonio Cromartie and safety Eric Smith.

The Pats want to be able to get their tight ends – Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski – involved early in the game and New York must make some adjustments to deal with it. Ever since the Patriots evolved into a quick- passing attack, Brady hasn’t thrown an interception in 11 games and they have outscored opponents by 26 points a game.

New York’s best approach should be to run LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene and keep Brady off the field.

Whatever the Jets do, they can’t get down early again. They aren’t built to come back against a solid defense with quarterback Mark Sanchez, who had three interceptions in the last game. Yes, the Jets have the big-play receivers in Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards and Dustin Keller, but will Sanchez have the time and will he make the proper decision?

Also, Sanchez’s right shoulder remains less than 100 percent from a Dec. 19 injury. Another concern for the Jets is right tackle Wayne Hunter, who is replacing injured Damien Woody (Achilles) and how much help will he need in pass protection. New England was 8-0 at home during the regular season.

CZAR’S SCOOP: The NFL will be keeping their eyes on Jets linebacker Bart Scott and his teammates to see if anybody attempts an illegal shot on Wes Welker for his “foot and toe comments” this week. The comments were made in response to the Jets calling Brady names and criticizing him for pointing toward their sidelines after leading his team to touchdowns in the previous game.

The Patriots lack depth on the defensive line, after putting defensive end and team sackl leader Mike Wright on injured reserve.

The week before the Patriots had to put Ron Brace on IR, making it 14 players sent to the inactive list. Because the team is so short-handed for defensive linemen, Alabama rookie Brandon Deaderick was activated from the suspended list in order to help in practice. Deaderick has missed several meetings and was suspended, but now the club needs him.

The Patriots had to add some auxiliary lockers in recent weeks to deal with their added players. Brandon Spikes returned to practice this week for the Patriots after being suspended four games for using a banned substance. Spikes didn’t appeal his suspension in order to be available for the playoffs.

Dane Fletcher has been filling in for Spikes while Gary Guyton, the inside cover linebacker, has been forced to play full time the past four games.

Don’t look for the Jets to utilize a no-huddle approach on offense like they did last time.

With blizzard conditions in Foxboro early in the week, many Patriots opted to stay at local hotels near Gillette Stadium Tuesday night or hitched rides with teammates to make sure they arrived in time for meetings and practices.

They all remembered that four players -- Randy Moss, Shawn Springs, Adalius Thomas and Gary Guyton -- were sent home last season after arriving late the morning after a snowstorm. Only Guyton hasn't been discarded.

Guard Dan Connolly, who ran back a kickoff 71 yards against the Packers on Dec. 19, will make his return after suffering a concussion in that game.