National Football League

Who is on the hot seat in NFL?

Published Nov. 1, 2011 1:00 a.m. ET

Alex Marvez

Jim Harbaugh is gumming up the works.

First-year NFL head coaches weren’t supposed to have immediate success in a lockout-addled offseason. The NFL Coaches Association even said as much in an amicus brief filed in May to support the lockout’s end on behalf of its members.

“While all coaches will be exposed to greater risk of failure, the eight teams with new coaching staffs are at particular risk,” the brief stated. “Since unforgiving expectations for immediate results will persist regardless of any lack of opportunity to prepare, these eight coaching staffs are losing irreplaceable time to prepare for a job that demands success.

“Thus, a lockout that prevents coaches from preparing their players for the season will inflict irreparable harm on all coaches. Coaches on the eight new staffs — especially the new assistant coaches on those staffs — will suffer even greater harm that will be even more impossible to repair.”

As it turns out, that wasn’t the case.

Harbaugh has guided the San Francisco 49ers (6-1) to the NFL’s second-best record. While no other first-year coach has enjoyed such instant success, all of their teams have at least two victories.

That has put other established head coaches with worse records directly in the crosshairs of being fired.

Here is a look at five whose days may be numbered. In some cases, even a major turnaround might not be enough without a playoff berth.

Miami’s Tony Sparano

Team record: 0-7
Career record: 25-30
Temperature of hot seat: Blistering

Summary: Conspiracy theorists can argue that Dolphins owner Stephen Ross isn’t as incompetent as he appears. The reasoning: By keeping Sparano in his current post, Miami’s chances of igniting a spark under an interim replacement and playing itself out of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes are reduced.

While I don’t buy such logic, it’s hard to justify why Sparano still has his job. The Dolphins have lost 10 consecutive games dating to last season. The team suffered one of the biggest fourth-quarter collapses in NFL history last month while losing to the Tim Tebow-led Denver Broncos. Sparano even played the now-I’m-getting-fired card when begging two game officials to review and overturn a Broncos touchdown catch.

A firing would be the merciful move for Ross to make. Ross already sabotaged Sparano and drove a wedge between his head coach and general manager Jeff Ireland when unsuccessfully courting Harbaugh in January. Even extending Sparano’s contract by two years was a mea culpa for such a blunder rather than a reflection of job security or endorsement for what he had accomplished.

Potential replacement: Ross and Bill Cowher denied last week’s NFL Network report that the team already has reached out to evaluate the latter’s interest in becoming head coach in 2012. Even so, my feeling is that when there’s smoke, there’s fire. Cowher would be the kind of high-profile hire that could help rejuvenate interest in a franchise whose season-ticket sales have dropped by roughly 20,000 seats over the past decade.

Jacksonville’s Jack Del Rio

Team record: 2-6
Career record: 67-69
Temperature of hot seat: Scalding

Summary: Now in his ninth Jaguars season, no NFL coach ever has kept his job longer without winning a division title. Del Rio finally may be out of time.

The same problem that has plagued the Jaguars for years — a shoddy passing offense — continues. Rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert is experiencing his growing pains while surrounded by a mediocre supporting cast of receiving targets.

The Jaguars haven’t posted a winning record since 2007 and faded from playoff contention each of the past two seasons with losses in their final three games. Not being able to make a move with Indianapolis (0-8) in freefall and Houston (5-3) holding a precarious grip on first place in the NFC South is particularly disheartening.

Potential replacement: This depends on who is making the hire, as general manager Gene Smith is in the final year of his contract (Del Rio’s deal runs through the 2012 campaign). There also is no track record to indicate what team owner Wayne Weaver may be thinking because the Jaguars have only had two coaches — Del Rio and Tom Coughlin — since debuting in 1995.

Regardless of whether Smith stays, hiring a budding assistant coach is the most likely move for a small-market franchise like the Jaguars rather than bidding for a big name such as Cowher or Jon Gruden. Jaguars defensive coordinator Mel Tucker, whose unit is ranked seventh in total yards allowed in the NFL despite Jacksonville’s offensive woes, is worthy of a long look.

Indianapolis’ Jim Caldwell

Team record: 0-8
Career record: 24-16
Temperature of hot seat: Getting warmer each week.

Summary: Although the Colts weren’t expected to flourish with quarterback Peyton Manning (neck) indefinitely sidelined, the magnitude of this year’s slide is stunning nonetheless. Indianapolis has lost its past three games by double-digits, including a 62-7 waxing in New Orleans.

Injuries that extend far beyond Manning have crippled the Colts. But there is a growing feeling that Caldwell may be getting exposed without Manning running the offense. Caldwell’s reputation already has taken a beating for questionable game-day decisions, some of which came in a Super Bowl XLIV loss to New Orleans.

Potential replacement: While the Colts have publicly stood by Caldwell, it’s fair to wonder whether the proverbial winds of change will sweep through the organization if Manning’s playing days in Indianapolis are drawing to an end.

The possibility of landing Luck with the No. 1 overall pick also could affect the coaching dynamic. Manning benefited from having an experienced offensive guru (Tom Moore) as his first coordinator in a working relationship that lasted 13 seasons. Nobody on the current staff has Moore’s cache.

Would an offensive coordinator who has enjoyed success with a rookie quarterback this season — notably Cincinnati’s Jay Gruden or Carolina’s Rob Chudzinski — make more sense than Caldwell if the franchise is moving forward with Luck rather than Manning? We’ll know when the “Suck for Luck” sweepstakes ends in early January.

St. Louis’ Steve Spagnuolo

Team record: 1-6
Career record: 9-30
Temperature of hot seat: Only slightly cooler after Sunday’s 31-21 upset of New Orleans.

Summary: After last year’s 7-9 record, the Rams were the universal favorite to win the lousy NFC West. That’s what makes St. Louis the NFL’s most disappointing team. The Rams are getting outscored by an average of 15 points a game. They rank ahead of only Jacksonville in average points per game at 12.4. (Note: The two teams that hired Bill Belichick disciples during the offseason to run their offenses — Josh McDaniels in St. Louis and Miami’s Brian Daboll — have a combined 1-13 record.)

Like with the Colts, injuries have played a major part in St. Louis’ 2011 failings. But that may not matter to Stan Kroenke, who is now in his second season as Rams owner. Kroenke inherited Spagnuolo and may want to put his own fingerprint on the franchise.

A firing wouldn’t be cost-prohibitive, as Spagnuolo has only one year remaining on his contract. Spagnuolo has nine games to rally the Rams, or a housecleaning may be forthcoming.

Potential replacement: Because he is a newbie in the NFL ranks as a full-time owner, it’s difficult to gauge what Kroenke would be seeking in a new head coach. Kroenke, though, is well-versed in the economics of sports from his family’s ownership of other professional teams such as the Denver Nuggets and Colorado Avalanche. He knows the Rams must regain local support after falling from their glory years of the early 2000s, especially with a major stadium issue on the horizon. The franchise’s lease with the antiquated Edward Jones Dome expires in 2015, keeping rumors of a potential return to Los Angeles alive.

Houston’s Gary Kubiak

Team record: 5-3
Career record: 42-46
Temperature of hot seat: Comfy — for now.

Summary: The storyline involving Kubiak hasn’t changed from the preseason. He either gets the Texans into the playoffs for the first time in franchise history or gets fired.

Houston is sitting atop the AFC South and faces no formidable challenge for the division title besides Tennessee (4-3), a squad the Texans thumped on the road 41-7 in Week 7. Houston, though, has suffered a midseason malaise under Kubiak in each of the past three years. The Texans are 1-3 against teams with winning records this season, but a modest four of the eight remaining opponents are currently above .500.

Potential replacement: He was the last head coach of the Houston Oilers. He knows the AFC South well from 14 seasons with the Tennessee Titans. And he’ll be looking for a job after sitting out the 2011 campaign.

Yeah, Jeff Fisher would make a lot of sense if Kubiak can’t get the job done.