National Football League

Once again, Tebow faces long odds

Published Jan. 6, 2012 12:00 a.m. ET

foxsports

A month ago, it was widely assumed that Tim Tebow, then being mentioned as a prospective MVP, could walk on water. Now, it’s a lock that he’ll sink like a stone.

It was nonsense then. It’s nonsense now. Even worse, however, is the sudden and outrageously confident assumption that Tebow is doomed to failure Sunday against the highly experienced Pittsburgh Steelers, who only have the best defense in football.

For all the talk of this being a team game, this one really is Tebow’s to win or lose. If he turns the ball over, as he has made a habit of doing in the past month, this divisional playoff will be remembered as a banner day for atheism. If he can find his way without fumbles or interceptions, the Broncos have a pretty good shot.

Either way, the nine-point spread seems a little nutty, a reflection of the fickle moods regarding Tebow more than Denver’s actual chances at home. Actually, I think the Broncos have missed an opportunity. Football is a game best played angry. Players will resort to inventing slights, imagined acts of disrespect that warrant payback. This instance required none. The nine points should’ve pissed off everyone in Denver’s locker room. A line like that is nothing if not bulletin-board material.

I mean, the last team that was such a prohibitive dog at home was Seattle a year ago against New Orleans. At 7-9, Seahawks were 10-point underdogs to the defending Super Bowl champions. If the Seahawks could win, however, who’s to doubt the Broncos?

Now, before I dispatch with more wagering advice, I’m obligated to remind you that I’m merely a sportswriter. I root for the story. Oddsmakers, the people who actually know what they’re talking about, aren’t hobbled by sentiment. Just the same, the betting line isn’t a science so much as an art, established to make an attractive bet. This one is certainly that. But I can’t help but think it was conceived primarily for those who had just seen Tebow go 6-for-22 passing in a 7-3 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. After all, if he sucked against the Chiefs, what would he do against the Steelers?

Sure. But theology aside, that’s the real beauty of Tim Tebow. He’s always been a sucker’s bet. First, there was absolutely no way he could play quarterback in the NFL. Then there was that period of divine intervention, when he won five consecutive games without throwing an interception. Now he’s a bum again, a nine-point dog.

Really? At home? Against a team with a hobbled quarterback? A team that will be playing without its star running back, Rashard Mendenhall, and safety Ryan Clark?

Denver sure seems like a good bet to me.

“A home dog getting many points is always a good bet,” says Joe Staniszewski, an oddsmaker with Las Vegas Sports Consultants, an outfit that establishes the lines for major casinos.

Remember: Denver’s three-game losing streak started with the Patriots. But New England didn’t beat Tebow (who was personally responsible for almost 300 yards of offense that day) as much as it beat Denver’s usually formidable defense 41-23. Tebow can’t beat a team that puts up big numbers. That’s not Pittsburgh, though. The Steelers have a grinding offense, especially with a hobbled quarterback and no Mendenhall.

“In any low-scoring game, Denver has a chance,” says Staniszewski. “The question is, which Tim Tebow is going to show up?”

Fair enough. A month ago, after Tebow’s fifth consecutive win as a starter, I wrote a column attempting to demystify and quantify his unorthodox quarterbacking skills. Sean Lahman, author of "The Pro Football Historical Abstract," had a theory of “adjusted yards per touch” that took into account turnovers and rushing. By Lahman’s measure, Tebow was then the NFL’s fifth most efficient quarterback.

Then, as now, the “adjusted yards theory” is a sound one. But it also vindicates the old-school theory that turnovers kill you. Denver has lost three in a row. During that stretch, Tebow has lost the ball seven times — four interceptions, three fumbles.

“I have to have better ball security,” he said the other day.

Ball security. It’s become my favorite football phrase. Just the same, Tebow was quick to note that “the three losses haven’t shaken my confidence.”

Of course not. It’s the rest of America whose confidence is so easily shaken. I’ve never heard such a resounding chorus of “I told you so’s” as I did after last Sunday’s Chiefs game. Nor have I seen a guy judged so ruthlessly in only his 14th start. Tim Tebow might not be the MVP, but he has saved an otherwise dreary season.

God loves him, that’s great. But this isn’t about divinity. It’s about the odds. Tim Tebow makes a lot of smart guys look like suckers.