Let's analyze the best value picks found in expert drafts so far. In addition, the running backs most likely to flop are covered.
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Value picks
Though he's being chosen in the third round of June drafts, Tatum Bell will produce like a first-round back. He's explosive and a gamebreaker. Denver's system is one of the league's best, producing top rushers like Terrell Davis and Clinton Portis. If Bell shows he can handle the full-time responsibilities of running, receiving and blocking in the preseason, his stats will skyrocket this year. A journeyman back like Ron Dayne poses little threat to Bell. Quick hits
Reuben Droughns is another overlooked back who can leapfrog into a No. 1 fantasy back if he receives more scoring chances. Corey Dillon, Fred Taylor and DeShaun Foster can average 100-yard games and a touchdown if health permits. If Dominic Rhodes claims the full-time role vacated by Edgerrin James, he'll be a bargain. Todd Heap could compete for top tight end honors with Steve McNair at the helm. McNair owns an excellent history of passing frequently to tight ends, like Frank Wycheck, and Ben Troupe and Erron Kinney last year. Joe Jurevicius could grab the starter's role at the season's beginning, making him a frequent target of Charlie Frye. Talented backups like Mike Anderson and Marion Barber could supplant injury-prone starters. ... First-round rookies like Lawrence Maroney, DeAngelo Williams and Joseph Addai play for solid rushing teams that have uncertainty with their starting runners. These talented rookies can be top backs by season's end. LenDale White may move up the depth charts to claim a starting spot in Tennessee. ... If Frank Gore becomes San Francisco's featured runner, he'll become another top fantasy back produced by Norv Turner's system. He's created fantasy monsters of Emmitt Smith, Terry Allen, Stephen Davis and LaMont Jordan.
Flops
The players most likely to be flops are often injured or ineffective starting running backs. They may post poor stats because of inadequate surrounding talent, dismal offensive system or simply inferior play. Starting fantasy running back flops chosen in the first few rounds hurt fantasy teams the most. They are the hardest to replace during the season. The most likely candidates are Carnell Williams, Edgerrin James, Domanick Davis, Ronnie Brown, Kevin Jones, Willis McGahee, Julius Jones, Jamal Lewis, Corey Dillon, Fred Taylor and Reggie Bush.
Williams has questions about durability, breaking down early last season and sharing carries in college. ... James will be running behind one of history's worst offensive lines on paper for run blocking. ... Davis has been injury prone in college and pros. ... Brown has yet to be the full-time back in college or pros. ... Former first-round pick Kevin Jones struggled so poorly last season he's considered a sleeper in some circles. ... McGahee struggled with inconsistency at quarterback and offensive line, and had a devastating knee injury in college. ... Julius Jones has missed 11 games in his first two seasons and had a spotty college career. ... Lewis failed to rush for 1,000 yards last season despite playing in 15 games. ... Dillon battled injuries last season, averaging a career low 3.5 yards. ... Taylor missed five games last season, rekindling his injury history. ... Bush may have an exciting career ahead of him, but the Saints are rebuilding. Sharing carries with Deuce McAllister, he'll need to work more with less.
Roger Rotter is entering his 10th season covering fantasy football, having dispensed advice as Dr. Gridiron, Hector the Projector and under his own name. He's also produced a number of wireless fantasy games and live scoring applications, and is currently a fantasy analyst and editor for FOXSports.com.
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