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QB prospects
Updated: February 27, 2007, 6:54 PM EST
Originally posted May 9
Though Matt Leinart slipped in the NFL draft, he climbs in the fantasy rankings by landing in Arizona. He has a chance to start this season with Kurt Warner's injury history and be productive quickly, given coach Dennis Green's quarterback-friendly system. This year's top rookie quarterbacks are analyzed for their skills, potential and opportunity on a scale of 1-10 and given a post-draft score for their projected fantasy value.
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| Matt Leinart | ||
| Category | TOT | Comments |
| Skills | 9 | He would have likely been the No. 1 overall pick in the draft by San Francisco last season if he declared. He's considered ready to start in his first season after setting records with a pro-style offense at USC. At 6-5 and 225 pounds, he has ideal size for an NFL quarterback. Scouts.com says he's accurate, is consistent, has strong field vision and makes sound decisions. He's never missed a game with an injury as well. However, he lacks mobility and running skills. |
| Potential | 9 | The 2004 Heisman Trophy winner led USC to two national championships and one runnerup in his three years as a starter. He threw for 10,693 yards and a Pac-10 record 99 touchdowns with just 23 interceptions. He's thrown for at least 250 yards in 23 of his 39 starts, including 12 300-yard games. He's also has passed for at least two touchdowns in 31 starts, including 20 games with at least three touchdowns. |
| Opportunity | 9 | Dennis Green's quarterbacks have flourished under his wide-open, vertical passing attacks. They averaged 4,149 yards and 29 touchdowns in the last eight years of his 10-season reign in Minnesota from 1994 thru '01. These included top-performing quarterbacks like Warren Moon, Brad Johnson, Randall Cunningham, Jeff George and Daunte Culpepper. In addition, the combination of Kurt Warner and Josh McCown helped lead the Cardinals to the top rank in passing yards (4,723 yards) and throw 21 scores. When Leinart eventually replaces Warner, he'll be throwing to the league's top receiving tandem, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. He'll also have proficient all-around running back Edgerrin James to help defenses respect the running attack and give him another option in the passing attack. |
| Post-draft | 27 | Look for Leinart to replace Warner by start of the 2007 season. He'll start sooner if Warner becomes injured or struggles. Leinart's biggest concern is receiving solid pass protection to give him time to throw and find his receivers. Green's offenses have proven to be a fantasy bonanza for quarterbacks. Expect Leinart to be one of the top-10 quarterbacks in his third season. His biggest potential downfall will not likely be his skills or mental game, but the recent atrocious history of the Cardinals franchise under stingy owner Bill Bidwell. |
| Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos | ||
| Category | TOT | Comments |
| Skills | 9 | He's wowed scouts and players alike with his strong, accurate throws and leadership presence in the recent combines. He's a redshirt five-year college player and never missed a game in his four years of playing. Scouts.com reports he's intelligent, has poise and leadership skills and is mobile. However, he needs to improve his field vision and technique. |
| Potential | 8 | Cutler is an example of doing more with less with a perennial doormat Vanderbilt program in the tough SEC. He passed for at least 250 yards in nine of his 11 games this past season, including six 300-yard days. He threw for at least three touchdowns in four games, totaling 21 touchdowns. Cutler played well against SEC powerhouses on the road, passing for 361 yards and four touchdowns at Florida in a 49-42 double OT loss and throwing for 315 yards and three scores in a season-ending win at Tennessee. He won the SEC Offensive Player of the Year last season and set many school records, including passing yards and touchdowns. NFL quarterback compared to: Brett Favre, Matt Hasselbeck |
| Opportunity | 9 | Cutler enters Mike Shanahan's solid offensive system for quarterbacks. His emphasis on strong offensive lines provides excellent protection for his quarterbacks. In addition, he balances a powerful rushing game with a productive passing game. While the Broncos perennially rank near the top in rushing, their passing attack produces solid fantasy quarterbacks. Denver quarterbacks have averaged 3,771 yards and 23 touchdowns in the past 11 years under Mike Shanahan. Current starter Jake Plummer is inconsistent, so Cutler will have a chance to unseat him once he learns the offense. Plummer threw for 4,089 yards and 27 touchdowns in his first full season in Denver two years. Despite that success, he regressed to 3,366 yards and 18 touchdowns last season. Previously, Plummer threw more interceptions (114) than touchdowns (90) in his first six years with Arizona. This season, Denver's receiving corp was upgraded with the addition of Javon Walker, effectively replacing Ashley Lelie. Cutler was considered by some to have the strongest arm in the draft. Along with his accuracy, poise and expected improvement in handling a pro offense, he could ignite Denver's passing attack if Plummer fails this season. |
| Post-draft | 26 | Cutler won't likely compete for a starting position until 2007 at the earliest. Depending on how Plummer performs this season, a quarterback controversy could ensue in training camp after this year. Still, Cutler's situation improves from college to the pros, transitioning from Vanderbilt's woeful program to Mike Shanahan's history of offensive success. He'll be a fantasy starter, surrounded by top talent and Shanahan's expertise. |
| Vince Young, Tennessee Titans | ||
| Category | TOT | Comments |
| Skills | 7 | He dominated college defenses with his athletic ability, outrunning and outmaneuvering defenders in isolated running situations and free-lance opportunities. He's also used his mobility to create big passing plays. However, he has yet to display an aptitude for running a pro-style offense requiring progressive reads. He's also only utilize shotgun formations and has little experience with direct snaps, required of NFL quarterbacks. Scouts.com adds he owns a strong arm but lacks passing touch. Evident by his dominating performances, he has tremendous game savvy and instincts. He's also durable, missing only one game in three seasons. Update: Since his draft workouts, coaches and scouts were impressed with his passing skills, leading to an increase of one. |
| Potential | 9 | The Heisman runner-up tied the Texas school record with 26 touchdown passes and ran for 12 scores last season. He registered five games of at least 250 passing yards and threw for at least two scores in 10 of 13 starts. Impressively, he finished the season with an astounding 467 total yards by passing for 267 and running for 200 yards in Texas' 41-38 win over USC. NFL quarterback compared to: Steve McNair, Michael Vick Update: His solid passing workouts increases his potential for passing stats, increasing his value by one. |
| Opportunity | 9 | Coach Jeff Fisher has already helped establish Steve McNair as one of the top fantasy quarterbacks. He's shown he can be flexible to take advantage of a mobile quarterback and keep him successful as a passer. McNair's passing stats fail to approach the league leaders with career highs of just 3,387 yards and 24 touchdowns in his 11-year career with the Tennessee franchise. However, combine those middle-of-the-road passing stats with one of the league's top rushing stats for a signal caller, and a top-10 fantasy quarterback is born. McNair ran for an average of 471 rushing yards and five touchdowns from 1997 thru '02. If Young attains those rushing stats, he'll be adding the passing equivalent of 1,178 yards and 7.5 touchdowns in leagues that count one point per 25 passing yards, one point per 10 rushing yards, four points for passing scores and six points for rushing/receiving scores. That's enough to help place him in the top 10 quarterbacks, if not higher, when he endures a few seasons of seasoning and becomes the full-time starter. |
| Post-draft | 25 | Young can quickly adjust to the passing rigors and complicated schemes under the tutelage of respected offensive guru Norm Chow and supportive Jeff Fisher. They'll be patient with him. Look for Billy Volek to start the season at quarterback before giving way to Young in 2007. He may need at least another season of adjustment. Bu when he's mentally prepared to orchestrate a pro offense, look for him to dazzle fans and fantasy owners alike on the scoreboard. |
| Tavaris Jackson, Minnesota | ||
| Category | TOT | Comments |
| Skills | 7 | From FOX draft profile: From Alabama State, he's regarded to have as much upside as any quarterback from the draft. At 6-2 and 226 pounds, he has excellent arm strength and is accurate on short to medium routes, in addition to having the velocity to throw the deep out. He also moves well and can throw on the run. However, he locks on a primary target and fails to locate his secondary receivers. He misfires when pressured and struggles in reading coverages. Essentially, scouts believe he can be an efficient West Coast quarterback with his size, foot speed and pocket movement. But he needs to correct mechanical flaws and "... develop the quick decision-making, football instincts and field awareness to excel at the fast pace ..." |
| Potential | 8 | After transferring from Arkansas to Alabama State, he started 35 of 36 games and played in every game. He threw for 7,839 yards, 67 touchdowns and 27 interceptions in his career at Alabama St. He also had 259 carries for 982 yards (3.8 average) and 11 touchdowns. He finished ninth in total offense (293.2 yards) in the nation, throwing for 2,941 yards, 29 touchdowns and only five interceptions. He ran for 285 yards (2.8 average) and three scores, too. He's been productive in college, showing the potential to be a fantasy starter in a friendly quarterback system like Vikings coach Brad Childress' West Coast offense.
NFL quarterback compared to: Donovan McNabb |
| Opportunity | 8 | Currently, Brad Johnson is Minnesota's starting quarterback, but he turns 38 in September. Look for Johnson to man the quarterback position until Jackson is ready. It likely won't happen this season, but he may be ready by 2007. He has a willing tutor in Johnson, who can help teach him to read coverages better and make quick decisions. Also, as the quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator, Childress helped transform McNabb into an All-Pro quarterback, joining the Eagles in '99 in McNabb's rookie season. McNabb averaged passing stats of 3,196 yards and 22 scores, and 429 rushing yards and four scores from 2000 and '04. |
| Post-draft | 23 | While Jackson owns the physical skills similar to McNabb, he will need the tutoring of Childress and Johnson to become a viable fantasy quarterback. Childress' offense has already proven to be very productive. He'll receive the opportunity to start as the Vikings' quarterback of the future, it's just a matter of when. |
| Kellen Clemens, New York Jets | ||
| Category | TOT | Comments |
| Skills | 8 | From FOX draft profile: The Oregon quarterback is mobile and athletic, is quick to avoid the pass rush and can throw on the run. He offers a quick release and acuity to handle a complicated playbook. He also is proficient at making off-balance throws and completing short and intermediate routes. However, he is mediocre on deep passes, lacks the speed in scrambling for significant yardage, struggles with sensing the pass rush and needs to add strength to handle the pro game. While he started 32 of 37 games for Oregon, he had two fractured ankles in his college career. He endured his second one last year, missing the season's final four games. |
| Potential | 8 | Clemens played his best under the spread offense of former NFL offensive coordinator Gary Crowton last season. He ranked fifth in the nation in total offense (329.2 yards per game) before his injury. He passed for 2,406 yards with 19 touchdowns and only four interceptions. He also ran for 228 yards, averaging 3.3 per carry. He entered Oregon as the nation's third-ranked high school quarterback and redshirted his first season. He threw for 2,400 yards and 18 touchdowns despite sharing time with Jason Fife in 2003. The next season, he threw for 2,548 yards, 22 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He also showed a knack for fumbling under pressure, losing five that season, and was sacked 40 times. In his favor, he studies game film diligently and has a solid work ethic. NFL quarterback compared to: Jake Plummer, Matt Hasselbeck |
| Opportunity | 7 | The Jets are expected to continue to employ the West Coast offense under new coach Eric Mangini. Regardless, no Jets' quarterback has the starting position firmly entrenched. Chad Pennington has endured two rotator cuff surgeries in the past two seasons, missing 13 games last year. He's still recovering full strength and will compete with Patrick Ramsey for the starting job. Ramsey has been unimpressive with Washington, throwing for only a career-high 14 touchdowns. The Jets' other backup Brooks Bollinger was ineffective in nine starts last season, passing for just seven scores. New York's fourth-round pick Brad from Missouri is expected to compete at wide receiver. The Jets' scouts considered Clemens to own the second-strongest arm in the draft. The front office and coaches had targeted him specifically prior to the draft and will ensure that he receives a chance to start once he assimilates the pro game. If Mangini decides to feature Clemens extensively with the passing attack, similar to New England's use of Tom Brady, then his fantasy potential increases significantly. |
| Post-draft | 23 | The Jets have lacked a recent history of producing solid fantasy quarterbacks recently. In fact, the Jets' quarterbacks have produced lowly passing totals in the past five years. The high marks have been only 3,120 yards and 16 scores during that stretch, both by Pennington. Look for Clemens to become the Jets starting quarterback in 2007. However, he likely won't be a fantasy starter until the Jets' offensive line and skill players improve, and Mangini instills a more aggressive passing attack. |
FOXSports.com fantasy editor Roger Rotter would welcome your comments and feedback.
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