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QB analysis: Ranking Top 10, best of rest
I've selected the rest of the Top 10 giving priority to those with the fewest pressing questions and highest ceiling. In addition, I've highlighted the best and worst of the rest.
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| Expert analysis |
1. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis
The departure of Edgerrin James leaves Manning with more responsibility to move the offense and score points with the passing attack. Running backs Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai are untested. Rhodes has played in just a backup role after tearing his ACL before the 2002 season, and Addai needs to learn the nuances of the pro game in his rookie season. Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne can produce given more responsibility of the offense, helping Manning increase last year's production.
2. Tom Brady, New England
After struggling with injuries, the defense is expected to return to top form this season. While Brady may be forced to pass less frequently, he may receive more touchdown opportunities working with a shorter field. Though one of his top wideouts departed (David Givens), Brady has shown he can produce with non-descript receivers like David Patten. In his favor, Brady also stays injury-free, is still young for a quarterback (turns 29 in August) and remains the centerpiece of New England's offensive attack.
3. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle
Mike Holmgren's offense has proven to be quarterback-friendly with Brett Favre in Green Bay and now Hasselbeck in Seattle. Hasselbeck has averaged 3,561 yards and 24 touchdowns in the past three seasons. He's been very durable for Seattle, available for 60 of the past 62 games in the last four seasons. Few quarterbacks match his recent productivity and health.
4. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati
He could arguably be No. 1 if he didn't have to recover from a torn ACL and MCL that he had in the playoffs. He practiced back-to-back days in June's minicamp and is expected to participate in training camp. Whether he will be ready for the season opener remains to be seen. Regardless, if Palmer can be effective starting with the opener, he has the skill and surrounding talent to duplicate his career highs of 3,836 yards and 32 touchdowns of last season. Cincinnati's offensive line, running backs and starting receivers are intact, making the offense one of the league's most talented. Palmer becomes downgraded further with a setback in training camp or a delay in returning to the regular season. If the news is positive in the preseason, his standing increases.
5. Eli Manning, N.Y. Giants
He's enduring criticism for a lackluster second half when he threw for just four touchdowns and seven interceptions in the last five games. However, Palmer only threw for 2,897 yards and 18 touchdowns, and had 18 interceptions in his first full season and second in the NFL. Manning passed for 3,762 yards and 24 touchdowns in his first full season and second in NFL. Like Palmer, Manning can see a jump in his stats for the second full season and third year as a pro. He'll improve his stats with a better understanding of the rigors of the NFL and the endurance it will take to succeed. In addition, the Giants added second-round rookie Sinorice Moss as their third receiver. He upgrades the receiving corps that already has Plaxico Burress, Jeremy Shockey and Amani Toomer. Moreover, Tiki Barber remains of the top all-around backs.
6. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia
He was one of the top fantasy quarterbacks entering last season after passing for 3,875 yards and 31 touchdowns, and rushing for 220 yards and three scores in 2004. He set career highs with Terrell Owens as his top receiver. Without Owens in 2003, McNabb passed for 3,216 yards and just 16 scores. This season, he has one of the league's worst receiving groups in terms of past production. None of the receivers on the roster has reached 1,000 yards. The highest mark on the roster is just 798 yards by Todd Pinkston in 2002, and Pinkston missed last season with a torn Achilles' tendon. McNabb's season ended prematurely last year with seven games remaining. This year, look for his 2006 stats to mirror 2003 without Owens, rather than 2004 with Owens.
7. Trent Green, Kansas City
Dick Vermeil helped create the "Greatest Show on Turf' in St. Louis and brought his aggressive style to Kansas City. However, Herm Edwards is the new coach, and he emphasized a conservative, run-heavy offense with the Jets. In fact, Chad Pennington served as his quarterback for three of five seasons and managed just a high of 3,120 yards. That's low compared to Trent Green's average of 4,023 yards in five seasons, including 4,591 yards in 2004, with Vermeil. Green has yet to miss a game in the past five seasons. He remains a Top 10 quarterback with his passing proficiency and health. Just beware that his passing yards may decrease under Edwards.
8. Daunte Culpepper, Miami
The burly quarterback's stats depend on his health more than any other factor this season. He's moved to Miami for a fresh start and a change of scenery after fading in Minnesota last year. New coach Nick Saban won't need him to carry the offense like he did with Minnesota. Saban will rely on the rushing game heavily where Culpepper will complement with his passing and running skills. Given a strong defense and a defensive-minded coach like Saban, Culpepper won't be needed to throw 35-plus times and instead, will be asked to manage the game clock and rely on the rushing attack more than direct a free-wheeling, wide-open offense that relies on his arm and legs to solely make first downs. Assuming Culpepper's back for the season opener recovered from his knee injuries, look for him to mirror his 2003 stats of 3,479 yards and 25 touchdowns, rather than his 2004 totals of 4,717 yards and 39 scores.9. Jake Delhomme, Carolina
By virtue of playing with Steve Smith, Delhomme is assured of being a starter in a weak fantasy class of quarterbacks. Smith contributed 88 receptions for 1,110 yards and seven scores in 2003 and had NFL highs of 103 catches for 1,563 yards, in addition to 12 scores. Adding Keyshawn Johnson upgrades the No. 2 receiver slot and will likely increase Delhomme's stats from last season. He's averaged 3,654 yards and 27 touchdowns in the past two seasons despite dropping to passing totals of 3,421 yards and 24 scores last year.
10. Marc Bulger, St. Louis
Before a shoulder injury ended his 2005 season after eight games, Bulger was on pace for an outstanding passing season of 4,594 yards and 28 touchdowns. Still, this season, Bulger must cope with an adjustment to new coach Scott Linehan. His potential remains high with Linehan. Culpepper registered career highs of 4,717 yards and 39 touchdowns in Linehan's last season with Minnesota in 2004. Still, Bulger also missed two games in 2004 with a shoulder injury. His penchant for injuries, especially in the same area, in the past two years makes him a health risk to last an entire 16-game season. In addition, the Rams offensive line was suspect in run blocking last season, allowing the sixth-most sacks (46) last year.
Best Value
Steve McNair, Baltimore
While McNair is learning his second offense in two years, his transition to Baltimore should be a smooth one. Similar to Tennessee, Baltimore has touted a ball-control, run-heavy offense with the passing attack utilizing a primary receiver and tight end. Only this time, compared to last season, McNair receives an upgrade at running back, receiver and tight end. Jamal Lewis and Mike Anderson are more proficient than Chris Brown and Travis Henry. McNair's reunited with Derrick Mason, who's an improvement over injury-prone Drew Bennett. Finally, Todd Heap is one of the game's best receiving tight ends. McNair can match his 2004 stats of 3,215 passing yards and 24 touchdowns. While McNair isn't a major rushing yardage threat anymore, he can score on the ground. He'll serve as a reliable backup and can start for teams that lose a starting fantasy quarterback to injury or plays poorly.
Best Surprise
David Carr, Houston
Many are predicting Carr to rebound under the guidance of new coach and former Denver offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak. After all, they have good reason. Houston's offense has been one of the league's shakiest during Carr's four-year tenure as starting quarterback. Not only did the Texans allow the most sacks last season, they fired offensive coordinator Chris Palmer after just two games last year. A steady coaching hand and a solid game plan may be all that Carr needs to take the next step as quarterback. The Texans also upgraded at receiver with Eric Moulds and are focusing on improving the performance of the offensive line with new schemes, personnel and plays.
Worst flop
Drew Brees, New Orleans
Brees had the benefit of working with an established offense in San Diego, relying on one of the league's top running backs and tight ends, along with competent primary receiver Keenan McCardell. This season, not only does he have injury concerns about his off-season shoulder surgery, but he will be entering a new offense with a new coach that has yet to be established in New Orleans. In addition, a shaky offensive line lost its most dominant player, center LeCharles Bentley. It will likely take time for Brees to adjust to a new offense and for the coaching staff led by Sean Payton to implement an efficient system.
Worst Injury flop
Kurt Warner, Arizona
He's been the Fred Taylor of quarterbacks. Drafting him as the starter is a mistake, especially if a strong backup isn't selected as well. He's missed 35 games in the past four seasons, including 12 in the past two years. He'll post 300-yard games, but he may not be available when you need him most during the run to the fantasy playoffs or title. Don't leave the quarterback position exposed by selecting Warner and bypassing another solid fantasy quarterback. The brittle quarterback is 35 already, is immobile and works with a questionable line that allowed the league's seventh-most sacks (45) last year.
Best backup
David Garrard, Jacksonville
Garrard didn't miss a beat when he replaced the injured Leftwich last season and was a productive fantasy quarterback. Garrard offers running skills that adds bonus fantasy points, as opposed to the immobile Leftwich . Injuries may strike Leftwich again. He's missed seven games in the past two seasons with injuries. He missed two games in 2004 with a knee injury and five games last season with a broken ankle.
Best rookie
Matt Leinart, Arizona
It's doubtful that Warner can endure a full 16-game season with his recent extensive injury history, making him likely to miss at least a few games. Leinart, who is considered to be the most pro-ready of any rookie quarterback, could take over the reins of Arizona's high-powered passing attack if Warner becomes injured or even ineffective. Leinart has the experience of running a pro-style offense at USC. If he receives the chance, he'll take advantage of one of the league's top receiving duos and post solid fantasy games, especially against inferior defenses like St. Louis and San Francisco within the division.
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