Fantasy sleepers: Bulger will rebound
I'll preview the fantasy prospects for McFadden, Matt Ryan, Andre Woodson, Rashard Mendenhall and a host of others as the entry draft approaches.
In the interim, I'm offering a preliminary list of sleeper prospects for the 2008 season. There are a couple of holdovers from 2007, whose growth was stunted by personnel issues or injuries. Several others appear on this list, because they'll become afterthoughts following injury-plagued seasons. The remaining players are those whose stock rose down the stretch and who'll receive opportunities in new cities. The list is by no means comprehensive and serves just to whet our appetites for fantasy football 2008. There's no off-season anymore, right?
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| David Garrard was a model of consistency this season, and that's exactly what fantasy owners look for in their QB. (Sam Greenwood / Getty Images) |
I begin in Jacksonville, where David Garrard cast aside any questions about whether he was merely a caretaker quarterback with a strong finish to propel the Jaguars into the playoffs and fantasy owners to championship celebrations.
Garrard was a surprise starter for the opener against the Titans after taking over for Byron Leftwich and began the season as an efficient option for fantasy owners. He threw a touchdown pass in all but one game in which he appeared, and he left that one early with the injury that would sideline him for three weeks (Indianapolis in Week 7). He came back from his injury a changed quarterback, averaging 29.5 pass attempts and 228 passing yards in his final six starts, throwing multiple touchdowns in five of them.
Houston quarterback Matt Schaub returns to the sleeper list for a second year. He completed 66.4 percent of his passing attempts for 2,241 yards when he did hit the field to earn another look-see. The fact that Andre Johnson had been lost for much of the year certainly didn't help, and the running game failed to take pressure off the passing game. The numbers produced by Sage Rosenfels in Schaub's absence with a healthy Johnson demonstrate the heights that can be reached in Gary Kubiak's attack. Schaub will slip in drafts coming off of his nine-touchdown, nine-interception and injury-marred season.
Ken Whisenhunt emphasized that Matt Leinart will be the starter in Arizona at the open of the 2008 season, but fantasy owners looking to Leinart, given his top-tier receiving options, best reserve another roster slot for veteran Kurt Warner. Warner took advantage of his opportunities in 2007, registering multiple touchdown strikes in eight of his final nine starts. He passed for 3,417 yards and 27 touchdowns, his highest marks since 2001 in St. Louis.
Second-year Denver quarterback Jay Cutler demonstrated tremendous growth down the stretch. He produced four multi-touchdown efforts in his final seven starts. He averaged 231.8 passing yards per game in the 15 he finished and showed toughness by playing some of his best football after injuring his knee in Week 9 against Detroit. The team may bring Javon Walker back for 2008, but "go-to" receiver Brandon Marshall, Brandon Stokley and tight end Tony Scheffler are tremendous weapons who will produce in this system.
Marc Bulger of the Rams might slip several spots on draft day because of concerns about his overall health. The Rams struggled terribly on the offensive line all season, and an injury to Steven Jackson put the full weight on the quarterback position. Bulger produced multiple touchdown passes in only two of the 12 games in which he appeared. He averaged 199.3 passing yards per game, down 69.5 yards from 2007 and completed a career-worst 58.5 percent of his pass attempts. Expect the Rams to bounce back in 2008 with health for Bulger and Jackson and improvement on the offensive line.
I'll end the quarterback speculation with a nod to Oakland quarterback JaMarcus Russell, who finally received significant playing time in the final two weeks of the season and looked fairly sharp in the finale against San Diego (23-of-31 for 224 yards, one touchdown and two turnovers). Certainly, he'll need to get past the jitters that resulted in costly turnovers, but he showed great arm strength agility in the pocket for a big man. He could surprise in year two of Lane Kiffin's tenure in Oakland.
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| DeAngelo Williams wasn't utilized nearly enough by the Panthers this season, but that surely won't be the case in '08. (Al Messerschmidt / Getty Images) |
DeAngelo Williams is a back who might not be suited for a full-time workload, but he certainly should have seen more of the field than he did during 2007. At 5-foot-9 and 217 pounds (as listed), he isn't afraid to deliver blows on closing defenders. He averaged 5.81 yards per carry in the seven games in which he tallied double-digit carries. He also produced a run of at least 23 yards in four of his final five games this year. John Fox failed to utilize him this season. I don't expect him to make the same mistake in 2008.
Cincinnati running back Kenny Watson excelled in placed of injured starter Rudi Johnson this season. He averaged 96.4 rushing yards per game in his five starts while scoring five touchdowns (including scores in Weeks 16 and 17). He also proved to be a tremendous receiving option out of the backfield, catching 52 passes for 374 yards in 15 games. He certainly made a strong case for a prominent role in the 2008 Cincinnati offense, or may serve as trade bait should the team retain Johnson and see signs that Kenny Irons (on IR in 2007) will be ready for camp.
Bill Parcells acted quickly and cleaned house in Miami. However, The South Florida Sun-Sentinel reports that Parcells will bring back tailback Ricky Williams to serve as insurance for Ronnie Brown. Brown's recovering from a torn ACL, and his availability for the early part of the season is in question. Williams carries considerable risk and will returning from a torn pectoral muscle of his own. I'm keeping my eye on 2007 third-round selection Lorenzo Booker, who was a favorite among teammates this season (several wondered aloud about his lack of playing time). He averaged 4.5 yards per carry and racked up 28 receptions in five weeks to close out the season. He'll receive some consideration from the Dolphins' new coach.
Fantasy owners snapped up Michael "The Burner" Turner, perhaps too quickly, as the handcuff to LaDainian Tomlinson. In the end, Turner sat on fantasy benches all season and amassed only 71 carries. That won't be the case in 2008. He's expected to be the prime target of a number of teams looking for a new backfield option. The fourth-year speedster has averaged 5.5 yards per carry in a limited role as Tomlinson's backup (228 carries). However, there's little concern about his mileage.
Another long-time backup who will be in heavy demand is Oakland tailback Justin Fargas, who earned the starting role before sustaining a knee injury and rushed for over 1,000 yards this year despite starting only seven games. LaMont Jordan will be gone, but the team expects 2007 draft pick Michael Bush and either Dominic Rhodes or Fargas (assuming he stays) to compete for the top spot in 2008.
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| Reggie Williams won't give you 100 receptions a year, but he knows how to find the end zone. (Brian Bahr / Getty Images) |
The efforts of wide receiver Reggie Williams cannot be denied. He recorded only 38 receptions in 2007, but 10 of his grabs went for touchdowns. He scored in six of the final seven regular season games. His workload increased toward the end of the year with three or more receptions in four of his final five games. His low reception total may scare some owners away in 2008 drafts.
The Cowboys invested in their future by signing Patrick Crayton to a contract extension during the final weeks of the year. He was a risky weekly play in 2007, as he caught more than three passes in only five games. However, he made the most of his opportunities with 50 receptions for 697 yards and seven touchdowns. The specter of Terry Glenn returning full-time to the squad in 2008 casts a shadow over his value right now, but we should have an answer to that situation well in advance of draft day. Crayton should open 2008 in his current capacity, the No. 3 target in the Dallas offense behind Terrell Owens and Jason Witten. He has tremendous upside as he grows alongside Tony Romo.
The Colts gushed all season about the work ethic and aptitude of rookie wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez. He finally made his mark for the team in Week 12 with his six-reception, 105-yard effort against the Falcons. He proceeded to catch 16 passes in the following four games for 264 yards and three touchdowns. Peyton Manning absolutely loves Gonzalez, and he'll have an opportunity to post numbers akin to Brandon Stokley's 2004 efforts.
Speaking of Stokley, the Broncos extended his contract and spoke glowingly about how he plays the game. He aided the development of Jay Cutler, catching 40 passes in 13 games for 635 yards and five touchdowns. He recorded a catch of at least 12 yards in every game in which he appeared and registered three or more receptions in nine of them.
I'll compile a more comprehensive list of sleeper and flop candidates for 2008 as rosters begin to take shape this off-season and we celebrate the glory of the 2008 draft in New York at the end of April. Naturally, fantasy owners will elevate McFadden's status next summer after watching Adrian Peterson punish opposing defenses.
It seemed only appropriate to end our coverage of fantasy football for 2007 with a look-ahead to next year.
I'll continue to hammer on statistics and post my musings in my blog. I look forward to what should be an active and entertaining, albeit short, off-season. Take a break for the playoffs and Super Bowl. You've earned it. We'll get back on the gridiron soon enough.
Mike Harmon is a fantasy contributor for FOXSports.com. He has authored two books, The Savvy Guide to Fantasy Sports and The Savvy Guide to Fantasy Football. Read his blog for more analysis. Have a question a question or comment? Send them, and the best ones may appear in his show or column.
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