Power Rankings: Stewart poised to make a move
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While this weekend only marks the start of the final third of the season, it is the next-to-last race before the start of NASCAR's postseason: The Chase for the Sprint Cup.
Who will make the cut? Here's a look at the top performing drivers in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heading into this weekend's race.
Power Rankings after the Sprint Cup race at Bristol
1. Kyle Busch — 112.9 driver rating (No. 1 before Bristol): A lot is being made of Carl Edwards' victory last weekend at Bristol Motor Speedway and how he is "the man to beat." So why is Kyle Busch still on top of the Power Rankings?
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One word: Scoreboard.
Edwards surely has momentum, but Busch remains on top of the charts in wins (eight to six), laps led (1,580 to 636), points (3,609 to 3,397) and average running position (8.9 to 10.2), just to name a few.
Remember, this is a marathon, not a sprint. So Busch remains on top of the charts until somebody puts together an unbelievable streak.
2. Carl Edwards — 106.5 driver rating (No. 2 before Bristol): Don't feel too bad for Cousin Carl though, he could close the gap on Busch this weekend at Auto Club Speedway.
Fresh off his back-to-back wins at Michigan and Bristol, Edwards could complete his hat trick in California, where he has an impressive average finish of 6.8 -- including a victory earlier this year.
I'd bet on a triple flip come race day.
3. Jimmie Johnson — 101.3 driver rating (No. 3 before Bristol): Was there any driver happier to leave Bristol Motor Speedway behind than Jimmie Johnson? The two-time defending champion endured early problems and finished a paltry 33rd -- dropping his average finish at the short track to 17.4 (fifth worst of all current Cup tracks).
Luckily, relief is on the way.
The two-mile speedway in Fontana, Calif. is the third best average track for Johnson. He has two wins (including last year's Labor Day weekend swing), seven top fives and 295 laps led in 11 Cup starts at the venue for an average finish of 6.4, best in the Series.
Look out for Johnson if he picks up momentum . . . there's a reason he's a two-time Cup champ.
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr. — 100.7 driver rating (No. 4 before Bristol): Reminder to all Sprint Cup Series fans: Even drivers make mistakes.
There are few drivers in the garage in need of a good run more than Earnhardt Jr., who has scored just one top 10 finish since winning at Michigan in June. Lo and behold, Junebug had the perfect car and great pit stops at Bristol last weekend. But a first-lap blunder by Earnhardt resulted in an early pass-through penalty that the team was never able to overcome, so a great effort resulted in a mere 18th-place result.
D'oh!
It gets worse. Auto Club Speedway is statistically Dale Jr.'s worst track with only three top fives and an additional top 10 in 13 career starts. He also has two 40th-place finishes over the last three starts.
5. Tony Stewart — 95.5 driver rating (No. 5 before Bristol): Keep hearing that old "Jaws" theme music? Don't sweat it, it's not a great white shark ... it's Tony Stewart.
Yes, Smoke is still winless in over a year, but the two-time Cup champ has picked up tons of momentum with four top 10s (including an eighth Saturday at Bristol) over the last six weeks.
The dry streak could come to an end this weekend. Nobody has led more laps at Fontana and not captured a win than Stewart. With fewer and fewer distractions on the horizon, look for the driver of the No. 20 to at least punch his ticket for this year's Chase if not celebrate in Victory Lane at the end of Sunday night.
6. Jeff Gordon — 95.4 driver rating (No. 6 before Bristol): After two straight disappointing results, Jeff Gordon got back on message with a fifth-place finish at Bristol -- his ninth top five of the season.
With that result in the bank, it is likely to be a case of California Dreamin'. Nobody is more prolific than Gordon at Auto Club Speedway, where he has three wins, eight top fives and 525 laps led.
Gordon is nearing a year-long dry streak, so a victory on race day could really turn things around for this group.
7. Denny Hamlin — 93.8 driver rating (No. 7 before Bristol): Will the real Denny Hamlin please stand up?
Two weekends ago, Hamlin vented his frustration after an engine failure at Michigan by saying his team "Didn't deserve to be in the Chase." So what happens a week later at Bristol? He finishes third and looks like not only can he make the Chase, but also become a true title challenger to Busch and Edwards for this year's crown.
So, will Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde show up this weekend at Fontana? Based on his overall career at Auto Club Speedway, Hamlin should inch closer to a spot in the Chase.
8. Greg Biffle — 90.5 driver rating (No. 8 before Bristol): Greg Biffle's resurgence continued last weekend at Bristol Motor Speedway, but you get the sense that something is missing.
Sure, since finishing 43rd at Daytona, the Roush Fenway Racer has finished 13th or better in five of six starts. But during the same span, Biffle has only led in three races for a total of 46 laps (43 coming at Chicagoland alone) -- not the most compelling figure for a driver looking to win the title.
California could be a game changer though, as Biffle has run strong on 1.5- and 2-mile tracks. Still, in 11 starts, Biffle only has one win and one additional top five for an average finish of 19.6. One way or the other, we should find out how realistic his title chances are.
9. Jeff Burton — 88.4 driver rating (No. 9 before Bristol): Straight from the horse's mouth:
"Well, we are obviously in a position of need," Burton said. "We need to get ourselves in the Chase. That is goal No. 1. To do that, we need to have good finishes, we need to run well, we need to compete at a high level and we need to get the best finish that we can. We certainly don't want to put ourselves in a situation that we didn't have to be in because I did something silly or we had a mechanical problem. But at the same time, you have to compete at a high level. The competition is too tough. So, we are going to go out and try to win the race. If we can't win the race, then we are going to try to finish second. If we can't finish second, then we are going to try to finish third. That is what we try to do every week."
10. Kevin Harvick — 87.5 driver rating (Not in top 10 last week): Harvick springboarded back into the Power Rankings Top 10 with a fourth-place run at Bristol. But to stick around, he'll need help this weekend as he has no wins, no top-five finishes and three top-10s in 12 Fontana starts.
Dropped out: Matt Kenseth
2008 Power Rankings: | | | | | | Post Martinsville | | | | | | | | | | | Post Michigan | Post Infineon | Post New Hampshire | Post Daytona | Off Week 3 — Best seasons of all time | Post Chicagoland | Post Chicagoland | Post Indianapolis | Post Pocono II | Post Watkins Glen | Post Michigan II
Editor's Note: Jorge A. Mondaca's weekly power rankings are based on NASCAR's Driver Rating system. Why these statistics and not others? The NASCAR Driver Rating system is based on a formula combining several categories which show how a driver is racing, not only how he is finishing, by looking at the point-paying races this season. As a result, it offers a much clearer explanation as to how they are currently performing.
The statistics used to determine the final numeric value are: Wins, finishes, top 15 results, average running position while on lead lap, average speed under green, fastest lap, led most laps and lead-lap finishes.
The system has a maximum of 150 points per race. Drivers must have raced in 75 percent of scheduled point-paying races to be included in this rating.
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