Last-chance thriller on tap at Richmond
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Some people will say that it's only three people fighting for the final spot, but anything can happen in Sunday's rain-delayed race as Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon are by no means locked in — and anything can happen at Richmond International Raceway.
With RIR being at a .75-mile short track, the driver who locks into the Chase probably won't be the one who outperforms the rest, but rather the one who has the best luck. Go back to the spring race at Richmond: Denny Hamlin was absolutely annihilating the field until he cut a tire, had to pit late, dropped off and finished 24th. That pretty much handed things to Kyle Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr., but then they collided and handed the victory to Clint Bowyer.
Guess what? That all happened within the final 30 laps! Just imagine what could happen when a spot in the Chase is on the line. I really think this thing won't be decided until the last few laps — if not the last lap altogether.
Numbers game
The top seven drivers in the standings are locked into the Chase — all Greg Biffle and Kevin Harvick have to do is take the green flag and mathematically they will seal their fates. So instead of points racing, these guys are going to go out and try to fight for bonus points and get themselves ready for next week.
Right behind them, I would say that Tony Stewart and Matt Kenseth look pretty good. Still, an early wreck can happen, so I don't want to count my chickens early with these two.
As far as the rest — Gordon, Hamlin and Bowyer — they are on defense. They know that even if they run 25th, they are OK as long as Kasey Kahne and David Ragan finish behind them. On the other hand, Kahne and Ragan are on offense, and they have to go for it. They have to get up front, try to lead laps and try to win the race. However, unlike Fontana last weekend, guys near the bubble won't want to gamble and stay out during pit stops under caution to lead laps. There simply isn't the space to move around at Richmond, and you could get yourself caught up in trouble at the back.
All these battles are going to be very interesting. It's why Mark Martin said a few years ago that he's been in championship battles and finished second in the points four times, but none of those runs has ever been as gut-wrenching as just trying to make the Chase. Once you get into the Chase, yeah, you still want to win the championship, but it's almost like the pressure is off.
For all those years before the new 10-race playoff was instituted, teams talked about winning races and trying to win the championship; now the focus is on winning races and making the Chase. It feels like the weight of the world has been lifted when you end up as one of the 12 to make the playoffs, because it signifies that you have had a good season. And, with the exception of Kyle Busch, all the other teams get a bit of a bonus because the points are reset and nobody is more than 100 points behind. Once again, those 12 guys have a chance to win the title, instead of possibly just two or three with how the points are right now.
While we are on the subject of agendas, guys who are locked into the Chase but really need a good showing to gain momentum and confidence include Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Burton. Dale Jr. is the top candidate for this list, and luckily he's always run well at Richmond. Burton has been up and down as of late and needs to find consistency again.
Jeff Gordon isn't locked into the Chase, but he needs a strong run not only to lock himself in but also to gain confidence.
Every point counts
Oh yeah, don't forget, the Chase is not the only points battle that matters.
We see this fight for a spot in the top 35 in the owner points getting tighter and tighter. This battle doesn't end Saturday night — it goes through the checkered flag at Homestead. A.J. Allmendinger and his crew have catapulted all the way up to 31st, but on the opposite end now Sam Hornish Jr. is out of the top 35 and must qualify his way in based on time until he gets back within the threshold.
Short track on steroids
Richmond International Raceway is the biggest short track we go to. But trust me, teams still view tracks such as RIR, New Hampshire and Phoenix as short tracks but with longer straightaways.
Although you never want to underestimate aerodynamics, they don't play a huge role in the outcome of Richmond races. You certainly don't want to be short on horsepower, but that also isn't that high on a list of Richmond priorities. When you look at RIR, a .75-mile track with not a lot of banking, it is absolutely all about handling and being mistake-free. This week's race is fairly short —300 miles— so we may not see more than five or six pit stops. There'll be no time to overcome mistakes on the track or pit road.
| Speed Mail Larry McReynolds |
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Also, you want to keep your emotions in check. If you're fighting for a title spot, you do not want to let your emotions get the best of you because that could take you of the title fight in an instant.
I don't know that strategy will play a big role this weekend — tires are very important at this track, so most every team will elect to go with four tires on every stop. Now, does that mean that toward the end of the race we won't see some teams roll the dice, particularly those on the outside of the Chase bubble looking in? Of course not. All bets are off then.
But the main focus this weekend, like at all short tracks, is handling; getting your car to turn through the middle and getting it to where it can drive straight off the corner without the rear end coming out from underneath. Turn 2 is pretty tricky. We see a lot of guys get in trouble by themselves coming off Turn 2 because it's a real sharp exit of a corner to the back straightaway.
Picking favorites
There's no question Denny Hamlin is the one to watch when the green flag drops at Richmond. He sat on the pole and all but led the entire race until bad luck struck him in May.
Other drivers to watch:
- Kevin Harvick: He really runs well at Richmond, and based on how he's been running as of late, he could be better than Hamlin.
- Clint Bowyer: He'll be a factor.
- Kyle Busch: He had one of the better cars here in May but got a little overanxious fighting for the lead with Dale Earnhardt Jr. late and took both himself and Junior out of the equation.
- Ryan Newman: He should run well here; it's been a good racetrack for him in the past.
- Martin Truex Jr.: One of his better runs this season was at Richmond.
- Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson: With the way they have been running, you are going to have to beat them in order to win on race day.
- Greg Biffle: He should run well.
I know, I named half the field, but that's the great thing about NASCAR. If this were the IRL race weekend, you know the race would come down to Helio Castroneves, Scott Dixon, Dan Wheldon or Ryan Briscoe. But in NASCAR, whether it's a short-track race at Richmond, a one-miler like Dover, a 2-mile track like Fontana or a superspeedway, you've got 12-16 guys that are absolutely contenders to win. But my absolute favorites are Hamlin, Harvick, Edwards and Johnson.
As far as the Chase battle goes, my honest opinion, and I can't factor in things like bad luck, but I think that with where the points are right now, just heads-up racing on the racetrack will produce the same top 12 as we had going into the weekend. Bubble boy Clint Bowyer will run good there, and if you look at their results in recent weeks, they are certainly picking it up. Now again, Bristol and California are nothing like Richmond, but the moral of the story is that they are gaining momentum at the perfect time — just like they did last year going into the Chase.
FOX race analyst Larry McReynolds has more than 25 years of NASCAR experience as a mechanic, crew chief and broadcaster. He and his fellow Crew Chief Club members take you behind the wall at www.crewchiefclub.com.
"How to Become a Winning Crew Chief" is on bookstore shelves, or you may order your own autographed copy from www.DWStore.com.
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