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Junior can make Chase -- if he's perfect
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Something just tells me that we are going to have several guys fighting for those final spots come Richmond in September. I think if you look at your top four, five or six drivers in the points right now, it's a safe bet they are in the Chase. There's 13 races left before the Chase starts and just think of the variety of those races.
You have the two Poconos, you've got the two road courses, you've got a restrictor plate race at Daytona plus you have Indy — and nobody knows what to expect there this year. Throw in on top of all that Bristol's night race. So it's not like we are going to the same cookie cutter type tracks week after week. It could take this point's race and shake it all around.
David Reutimann, for example, looks like he is poised to get back into the top 12, but he will be the first to tell you that he isn't licking his chops about the upcoming Sonoma or Watkins Glen events. Road course racing simply isn't David's strong suit.
Guys like Dale Jr. or Clint Bowyer, who had good runs at Dover, don't really have many mulligans left. They have used them all up. The group that has to get their act going is Richard Childress Racing. We gave RCR a C grade during our broadcast at Lowe's Motor Speedway. Richard wasn't very happy about that, but that group has to get their act together if they have any hope of duplicating their efforts from last year.
Last year, they had all three cars in the Chase. I don't see that happening this year. Even though they have expanded to four cars for 2009, I only see them possibly getting one car in the Chase.
What's happened so far
It is really hard to believe that our 2009 NASCAR on FOX season has come to a close. Gosh, it just seems like yesterday that we were getting ready to cover the Daytona 500.
I think we have had a lot of pleasant surprises so far in 2009. Obviously to me, the most pleasant is Stewart-Haas Racing. I think everyone knew it was going to eventually be a great deal for everyone, but it would take a little bit of time. Now with only a third of the season gone, Tony won the All-Star race, is leading the points and both teams are solidly in the top 12 in points.
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| Tony Stewart's been one half of a dominant Stewart-Haas team recently. (Geoff Burke / Getty Images) |
We have seen a lot of our veteran drivers rebounding this year, but it should also be pointed out that we have had two first-time winners in these first 13 races. Brad Keselowski basically shocked the racing world by winning Talladega. Then, even though it was shortened by rain, David Reutimann won the Coca-Cola 600. It's pretty rare to have two first-time winners that early in the season.
Sure, Kyle Busch has won three races plus Jimmie Johnson and Mark Martin have won two each, but I simply don't see a dominant force out there right now. Last year, you had Kyle Busch or Hendrick Motorsports winning about one out of every three races. You don't have that in NASCAR right now. There simply isn't a clear-cut dominant figure in our sport right now.
What's next
People ask me who I like each week in the races. There's just no way I can answer it and that's a beautiful thing. That means our competition is so tough that it's hard to pick who will win. Look at qualifying last weekend at Dover. Just a little of .6 of a second separated Reutimann, who won the pole, from Keselowski, who didn't even make the race. That's unbelievable.
That tells me our sport is healthy. I just see a lot of positives. The thing I love the most is that NASCAR is looking and listening. That Town Hall meeting with the drivers and owners will go a long way to move our sport forward.
I am also very proud of the racing we have had this year. What a great race Sunday was at Dover. That's the way racing is supposed to be.
FOX race analyst Larry McReynolds has more than 25 years of NASCAR experience as a mechanic, crew chief and broadcaster. He and his fellow Crew Chief Club members take you behind the wall at www.crewchiefclub.com.
"How to Become a Winning Crew Chief" is on bookstore shelves, or you may order your own autographed copy from www.DWStore.com.
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