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Six scenarios that will define American soccer in 2009
U.S. Soccer in the spotlight
MLS WEATHERING THE FINANCIAL MELTDOWN
Every sports league in America is in trouble. And you may very well be reading this during work hours ... because you got laid off.
Half of the NBA's teams are not making money. NASCAR is a hairs-breadth away from losing their major sponsor to bankruptcy. The NFL laid off 150 people after reportedly telling ownership that revenues would dip by 20% this year.
The NHL has told its players that, for the first time the 13.5% of player salaries would be held in escrow and might not be disbursed at the end of the season as usual. And MLB? Well, aside from the Yankees, it's tough times all around. The Arena Football League folded up shop, and minor league teams are dropping like flies. Did I mention tickets to the Orange Bowl were being dumped for as little as $1?
In what is perhaps the only understatement ever uttered by an MLS official, even the commish, Don Garber, noted that this was a "challenging environment."
What can MLS do? Not a heck of a lot. Spending is already pretty low, and lower ticket prices will cut deeply into what are already pretty thin margins. Fact is, MLS is going to have to open the doors and hope for the best.
This year, the normal metrics should be thrown out the window. 15,000 a game might not happen. And expansion? Maybe that isn't going to happen this year, either. So what?
MLS has made huge strides, going from a group that was bereft both of ideas and cash, to a solid, sustainable national league with real growth potential. And all soccer fans would rather see qualified, visionary ownership added to this league than witness a short term payout to the existing MLS ownership group.
And while we're on the subject ...
(Probability of this happening: 80%)
MLS GETTING THE CREDIT IT DESERVES
Major League Soccer
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Photos
League Pages
Yes, the quality of play in MLS is not world-class. And, yep, there are going to be some empty seats at some games. And, okay, yeah, MLS tends to foolishly overstate their case in ways that make them look like pikers.
[This week's case in point: A press release, sent Wednesday, which read: "The players who join MLS as part of the Generation adidas program receive unprecedented opportunities to develop their game and hone their skills at the professional level ..." "Unprecedented?" Really? That'll be news to Sir Alex, Arsene and Jose, to say nothing of those old Project-40 kids. But I digress.]
This is a shame, because MLS is a lot better than people give it credit for, both on and off the field. It's certainly as good as First Division football in many smaller European countries, and despite the fact that it kills me to say this, it's far more watchable than 90% of Scottish matches.
Off the field, MLS has done something few of us thought possible: These guys have learned how to stage an event. I was at both the MLS All-Star game and the NHL Winter Classic, and while the latter got the rapturous press ... the former was a far-better event.
Really.
For those of us who pay attention to such things, the way MLS presented its product in Toronto blew away what the NHL did. The Winter Classic got its charm from the Friendly Confines and the 40,000 fans that showed up to yell, but in virtually every other respect, the NHL's ops fell short. The replay TV screens were tiny, the league's "festival" in Wrigley's parking lot was a joke, and the only teams being plumped were the two playing on the ice.
In contrast, MLS' All-Star game was a whirlwind that captured the city of Toronto, and not only sold the league, but the game of soccer itself. MLS and MLSE staged a near-flawless showcase event that left the fans, the players and the league elated.
And yet, people are falling all over themselves to congratulate the NHL while there was little to no buzz about MLS. That's a shame, because the truth is, some of the other American leagues could learn something from how MLS does business.
CONCACAF WC Qualifying
(Probability: 0%)
MEXICO WINNING IN COLUMBUS
Before you fire off that angry email, take a moment to read this and (maybe?) think about it.
Fact is, both these teams are locks to go to South Africa in what is perhaps the weakest Hexagonal in the modern era. So, the question isn't if the Americans will play in 2010, it's what they will do when they get there.
Right now the Americans have to guard against the two "overs" that historically conspire to sink this team — overconfidence and overestimation.
U.S. Soccer constantly (and perversely) overestimates what their team can actually do. This leads to insane predictions and a feeling of false security for the players that historically lasts until about 15 seconds before the whistle blows in their first World Cup game. The players — some genuinely not knowing any better — then try to do far too much, opening up huge gaps on the field and it's France 1998 all over again.
A loss by the Americans in Columbus would add a bit of spice to what looks to be a lackluster qualifying season. It might also force the folks at Soccer House to spend a little more time on fixing the problems the team has, instead of glossing them over.
The Border Rivalry
There is a real question on whether coach Bob Bradley has the acumen or experience to lead the team in South Africa, yet there he is, on that bench. Few think our defense is any good, but we just let Neven Subotic slip off to Serbia and have done little to develop anyone beyond Carlos Bocanegra and Oguchi Onyweu in the middle. And up front? We seem to be hoping that Jozy Altidore is the next David Trezeguet (Note: Trezeguet was a flop at the national team level).
Unfortunately, Mexico stinks. And they never win these days on American soil. So, things will just coast along, and fans and "analysts" alike will overhype and overpromise ... right up until 15 seconds before kickoff in South Africa when cold reality sets in. Too bad.
(Probability of real change coming to pass: 25%)
THE USMNT DOING SOMETHING AT CONFEDERATIONS CUP
Okay, so the USA is in a group with Egypt, Italy and Brazil.
What do you think is going to happen? I say: One point.
The only shred of good news ... Brazil is not obligated to play (neither is Spain), so maybe a team we could beat — say, Peru? — will show up.
(Probability: 10%)
YOUNG AMERICANS MOVING ABROAD ... AND A FEW JUST STAYING THERE
2009 Summer Transfers
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Photos
Transfer Pages
It's been a rough year for our kids overseas. Brad Friedel and Tim Howard remain awesome, as always, and Clint Dempsey seems to finally be getting back into the swing of things under the Roy Hodgson regime. Bocanegra and Onyweu play every week, natch, but at lower levels of the game and on lesser teams.
After that, it's a sheer cliff. DaMarcus Beasley and Maurice Edu aren't doing much up north in Glasgow, and Michael Bradley's move to Germany hasn't paid dividends. And as for Freddy Adu ... you know, maybe the less said about him the better.
Nonetheless, going abroad remains the best option for our top talents, with the caveat that they need to be in places where they can actually get games. Donovan, Cooper and Kljestan have shown they can comfortably play at the top of MLS, and so the question becomes: Can these players develop further?
Donovan is perhaps the most interesting case of the trio, for his growth as a player has been hampered by psychological happenstance rather than your run of the mill lack of talent. He's been a notorious flop in Germany not once but twice, and despite the fact that his stock soared after 2002, his attitude soured many suitors on him. Donovan may well be the most complete player the Americans have on the roster, so it would be nice to see him finally prove that he can play each and every game in a true, high-pressure environment. If he can, it would help both his fragile ego and the USA's chances.
Cooper is clearly ready to decamp, but the question is whether or not Dallas will sell him. At the moment, the tea leaves say no. Fans of the Hoops will disagree (and rightly so, mind you) but this is a shame for fans of the national team. Cooper has the raw talent and technique to break into the big time, but needs to show he can handle the tough defenses abroad.
Kljestan is the odd man out, in a way. He's got real raw skills, but he is a dreadful passer, and would really benefit from extensive training and even a year playing with a top team's reserves. Nothing against Preki, but Kljestan isn't getting what he needs in the confines of MLS.
WPS on FSC
(Probability: 20%)
WPS ACCEPTING CERTAIN REALITIES
No one can argue the potential pitfalls of opening a new business in the current financial climate. So is it prudent for this league, which its own commissioner admits has only "one chance to get it right," to move forward during the worst economic crisis in the U.S. since 1929?
We'll discuss that and other challenges which lie ahead for WPS in next week's column, but it's certainly an issue worthy of being raised.
(Probability: 50%)
Jamie Trecker's newest book, "Love and Blood: At the World Cup with the Footballers, Fans and Freaks" is out now from Harcourt. Jamie is assisted by Jerry and Janice Trecker. Contact Jamie at jamie.trecker@gmail.com and visit his blog and website at www.jamietrecker.com.
The views and opinions expressed by Jamie Trecker do not necessarily reflect those of the Fox Soccer Channel or FoxSoccer.com.
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