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2023-24 NCAA basketball odds: USC's Bronny James, Michigan State hot early picks
As July dawns, most of you probably aren’t thinking about March Madness odds.
But in the nearly three months since UConn topped San Diego State in the national championship game, some bettors have jumped into the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament pool.
Michigan State is among the more notable early movers in the Final Four odds market.
And Bronny James’ decision to attend USC — near where his superstar dad plays for the Los Angeles Lakers — helped make a ripple, as well.
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Cameron Drucker, college basketball trader for BetMGM, offers his insights on those two programs and more as a part of our early look at NCAA Tournament odds.
Let’s Get This Sparty Started
Michigan State was a No. 7 seed in the 2023 NCAA tourney but made its way to the Sweet 16. The Spartans knocked out No. 2 seed Marquette in the second round, and they followed by nearly getting into the Elite Eight.
Tom Izzo’s troops played a screamer of a Sweet 16 clash against Kansas State, losing 98-93 in overtime.
When the tournament wrapped up and BetMGM opened 2023-24 March Madness odds, Michigan State was +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total), trailing 11 other teams.
Fast-forward to now, and the Spartans are the +1600 fourth choice, trailing only +1200 co-favorites Duke and Kansas, and No. 3 choice Purdue (+1400).
"The action on the Spartans has been coming in fast and heavy. They are by far our largest liability thus far," Drucker said. "That’s mainly due to returning production, combined with an exciting freshman in Xavier Booker. Their head coach isn’t too shabby, either."
Yeah, that Izzo fella’s a pretty decent coach, I hear. And as Drucker noted, the Spartans’ projected lineup appears stout.
"They sure seem legit," he said. "They are returning effectively their entire 2022-23 roster, minus Joey Hauser, and also adding Booker. When you give Tom Izzo an über-experienced backcourt like A.J. Hoggard and Tyson Walker, a deep run in March is always a likely outcome."
Michigan State is currently second in tickets and money in BetMGM’s NCAA Tournament futures market, behind only Kansas in both categories. Liability on the Spartans is greater because of the longer — though hardly long-shot — odds compared with Kansas. The Jayhawks opened +1600 before shortening to +1200.
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Trojans’ New Horse
USC also reached the NCAA Tournament last season, but it was a short stay, interestingly enough due to aforementioned Michigan State. The Trojans lost to the Spartans in the first round.
Southern Cal opened at +4000 in odds to win the 2023-24 NCAA Tournament. James’ decision to attend USC came in early May, and the Trojans are currently among a gaggle of teams at +3000, making them the co-15th choice at BetMGM.
Arguably more important than the Bronny decision, USC landed point guard Isaiah Collier, the No. 1-ranked high school senior last season.
But unlike Michigan State, bettors aren’t really buying much into USC’s stock at this point.
"It doesn’t appear that way. There’s not a ton of action on USC thus far," Drucker said. "They are an interesting team, as they certainly do not lack for talent. Outside of Bronny, they did bring in Collier. They also return an electric scorer in Boogie Ellis and landed DJ Rodman from Washington State out of the transfer portal."
In case you’re wondering, Rodman is the son of prolific NBA rebounder Dennis Rodman.
"If the Trojans gel, they could find themselves in the upper echelon of the Pac-12," Drucker said.
Favorites, Dark Horses, Long Shots
As Drucker noted, Michigan State is creating the most potential liability for BetMGM at this early juncture. Favorite Kansas and co-eighth choice Arizona (+2000) are the next two biggest liabilities for the book.
But if you’re going to tie up your money for several months, then Drucker believes there’s plenty of value to be found elsewhere on the Final Four odds board.
"With the transfer portal looming so large, there seem to be a lot of teams that still may be slightly undervalued," Drucker said. "The first team that comes to mind is the Houston Cougars.
"While losing Marcus Sasser and Jarace Walker to the NBA, they return Jamal Shead and J’Wan Roberts, and added two of the best players available in the transfer portal, in LJ Cryer [Baylor] and Damian Dunn [Temple].
"I personally believe there is value with Houston at 18/1 or [longer]."
The Cougars were favorites to win the national title much of last season and were a No. 1 seed. But Houston fell to Miami in the Sweet 16. BetMGM opened the Cougars +2200 in next season’s March Madness odds market, and Houston is currently +1800.
"A few other teams I believe have some value are Maryland at 50/1 and Villanova at 30/1," Drucker said. "And as for a long shot, Ole Miss at 150/1. You can’t ever count out a head coach like Chris Beard."
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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