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Chris 'The Bear' Fallica's March Madness Final Four expert betting picks, trends
The Sweet 16 was much better for us from a handicapping standpoint, and now we’re left with two very compelling Final Four games at the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.
Saturday’s first game between Florida Atlantic and San Diego State is a true toss-up.
Meanwhile, the second matchup pits former Big East rivals Miami and UConn against one another.
We're in line for a great weekend of games, so let's take a look at my best wagers for the national semifinals and some other betting tidbits, with odds by FOX Bet.
Florida Atlantic vs. San Diego State, 6:09 p.m. ET Sunday
FAU's Nick Boyd is second on the team with 64 3-pointers but has struggled in the tourney, going 6-for-23 (26.1%). One would think he’s due to hit some "positive regression," even against an Aztecs team that has held opponents to 5-for-44 shooting (11.4%) on 3-pointers the past two games.
While the San Diego State defense deserves credit for that, some of the misses were good looks which just didn’t fall – see Trey Alexander for Creighton. It’s not like I expect Boyd to go 5-for-7 shooting, but I do think making two – as he did vs. Tennessee – isn’t too much to ask.
PICK: FAU's Nick Boyd Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (-110 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
The Owls have eclipsed 65.5 points in three of their four tournament games, with only the Tennessee game going under the number. FAU scored 62 in that game which saw the Owls put together a brutal first half with 22 points and 3-for-14 shooting from 3-point range (21.4%).
Yes, I know the Aztecs possess a great defense, allowing only 57.3 points per game in the tourney, but this is a Final Four game, so if the Owls are trailing late, there will be a lot of fouls, more possessions to shoot 3s and more points scoring opportunities. Or the flip side could happen, and FAU could be up, and it's the Aztecs doing the fouling.
Either way, I think the Over is the way to go here.
PICK: FAU Over 65.5 points scored (-110 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
Connecticut vs. Miami, 8:49 p.m. ET Sunday
Miami has been thriving in the underdog role in the tournament, pleading, "Don’t Pick Us," as the 'Canes have knocked off the 1-seed (Houston), 2-seed (Texas) and 4-seed (Indiana).
Well, Miami has another opportunity to pull an upset here and hope people will listen to their pleas, as the 'Canes are a 5.5-point underdog against Connecticut. The Huskies have looked like the best team in the tournament so far, so the number makes sense.
But, don’t let this underdog bit fool you. Miami is good – very good. In fact, this team hasn’t lost when it has been at full strength since Jan. 28 at Pitt. Norchad Omier played but a minute in the ACC semifinal loss against Duke, and Nijel Pack did not play when the Canes blew a big lead to Florida State on Feb. 25.
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If Duke, Louisville, North Carolina or Virginia did that, they would be viewed as an ACC powerhouse. But as has happened in the past, especially with seeding in the NCAA Tournament, Miami can’t seem to get that same level of respect despite its ACC success.
Don’t expect the ‘Canes to go quietly here either, in what should be a high-scoring game. UConn has eight players averaging at least six points per game and 13 minutes per game in the tourney, so they are deep and can score with anyone. Miami is also very difficult to guard and just put up 85 points on Indiana, 89 on Houston and 88 on Texas.
If this game isn’t well into the 70s or even the 80s I would be surprised.
PICK: Miami (+5.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 5.5 points (or win outright)
PICK: Over 149 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet
Bear Bytes
Over the previous six Final Fours, only two teams have pulled an upset in the national semifinals – North Carolina last year as a 4.5-point dog against Duke and Texas Tech in 2019 as a two-point dog against Michigan State.
Seven of the 12 games were decided by double digits in that span. So look for some adjusted lines where you could get some plus prices.
Each of the past five – and seven of the past eight – ACC teams that did not play another ACC team in the national semifinals won their game to reach the championship game.
FAU can become the first 9-seed – and the lowest seed ever – to reach the National Championship Game. Five 8-seeds have reached the title game, including North Carolina last year.
Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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