NCAA Tournament odds: Betting history between Duke and North Carolina
When the Duke Blue Devils and North Carolina Tar Heels meet in the Final Four on Saturday, it will be the 258th time that the teams play each other in the 102 years of the series. However, Saturday’s edition of the Tobacco Road rivalry will be the first time the two will meet in the NCAA Tournament.
Since this will be the final time Mike Krzyzewski takes on the Tar Heels as Duke's head men's basketball coach, FOX Sports Research took a historical deep dive into the series from a gambling perspective. While our data only goes back to the 2004-05 season, this research will still provide a valuable overview of which team has historically had the edge against the spread (ATS) and straight up (SU).
While North Carolina leads the overall series 142-115, Duke owns a 21-19 advantage straight up since the 2004-05 season (postseason included). But the Blue Devils are only 16-22-2 ATS in those matchups, with North Carolina bettors seeing an 11% return on investment in those games.
In fact, betting on the Heels in this series since 2005 has almost always been profitable. As you will see in the chart below, the only time North Carolina bettors got a negative return on their wagers was when they wagered on UNC to win straight up as favorites.
Most notably, betting on the Tar Heels to cover as underdogs against the Blue Devils has resulted in a 20% yield since 2005. That number mirrors the return when looking at games in which the spread was within five points in either direction, as North Carolina went 13-8 ATS in those games with a 19% return on investment.
All this data indicates you should automatically bet against Duke Saturday, right? Not so fast because Coach K has a unique bunch this season. Led by projected top-five NBA Draft pick Paolo Banchero, the Blue Devils have gone 3-1 ATS in the tournament with their sole non-cover coming in a 17-point victory against Cal-State Fullerton as 18.5-point favorites.
What’s more interesting are the striking similarities between this year’s team and the 2015 Blue Devils — the last Duke squad to win it all. This year's Duke team features three freshmen who average more than 23 minutes per game — Banchero, A.J. Griffin and Trevor Keels. The 2015 team? Well, they had three freshmen named Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones and Justice Winslow — all of whom were first-round NBA Draft picks. For what it’s worth, Grayson Allen was also a freshman on that team, and he ended up being a first-round pick as well.
North Carolina fans would be outraged if we didn’t mention the 2017 Tar Heels. That squad won the National Championship and also has striking similarities to this year’s team. Unlike Duke, both Carolina squads have gotten most of their production from upperclassmen, specifically in the frontcourt. Junior Armando Bacot and graduate transfer Brady Manek have led the way for UNC this season; in 2017 it was the senior duo of Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks.
Lastly, here is a look at Coach K's career from a betting standpoint.
So what does it all mean? Bet on Duke or bet on North Carolina? Whatever you decide, this information will help you make an informed wager on what should be an incredible, classic matchup.
This could be the most bet on college basketball game of all time, so make sure you head over to FOX Bet to join the fun and make your wagers!
Play FOX Super 6 every week for your chance to win thousands of dollars every week. Just download the Super 6 app and make your picks today!
