College Football

2023 College Football odds: How to bet USC-Colorado, Week 5 picks, predictions

Updated Sep. 27, 2023 5:43 p.m. ET

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Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Are you ready for some college football Week 5 picks and predictions?

You all should know that I'm feeling especially confident going into this weekend after my Oregon Ducks covered the big 21-point spread just as I predicted. Back the Quack and stack some cash, right? 

This week, though, I'm eyeing a couple of other Pac-12 squads and one Big 12 team that I hope will make us all some money. Can USC cover against Coach Prime and Colorado? Can the Sooners stifle Iowa State in Norman?

Keep reading to find out my best bets for Week 5 of this college football season.

No. 10 Utah at No. 19 Oregon State (9 p.m. ET Friday, FS1)

The Utah Utes are a remarkable 4-0 after beating three Power 5 teams in the first month of the season. And that's been without their starting quarterback and, at times, without more than a couple handfuls of their two-deep in the lineup. 

The Utes have won these games with outstanding defense. They're first in the country at forcing three-and-outs and are sixth in defensive points per drive. They have scored on defense, having returned two interceptions for touchdowns this season. But what Utah hasn’t done is score points on offense. This is not surprising, considering it is currently starting Nate Johnson, a physically gifted athlete who started training camp as the fourth quarterback on the depth chart. Utah scored 24 against Florida (with Barnes at quarterback), then 20 against Baylor before scoring just seven offensive points last weekend against UCLA. 

Oregon State is 3-1. The Beavers defeated a poor slate of Mountain West teams, then lost to Washington State last weekend — just as I wrote before last weekend’s action. I thought their defensive performance through three games was more a reflection of their opponent and not about their strengths. We saw Washington State exploit their passing defense, but Utah can’t pass the ball right now. The Beavers' defense is going to play well against this Utes' offense because it is one-dimensional without any coherent passing attack. 

The Under has easily hit in all four of the Utes' games, and I’m wagering on that happening again in this one. Utah’s defense is excellent. Oregon State’s offense is run-heavy with a quarterback who can be up and down. On the flip side, Utah’s offense does not operate at full strength without Cam Rising. The Utes have scored less and less the longer he’s been out. Their offensive line is suspect, and the Beavers defense can exploit that. 

You could also sprinkle on the Beavers' moneyline because, at some point, Utah playing a fourth-string quarterback is going to cost them. The Beavers have a fantastic home-field advantage; they've only lost once at home since the start of the 2021 season. 

PICK: Under 44.5 points scored by both teams combined

Deion Sanders on Colorado being underdogs vs. USC: 'David's got to have a Goliath'

No. 8 USC at Colorado (noon Saturday, FOX and FOX Sports app)

I struggle with this game because I want to wager on the Buffaloes to cover. They are coming off an embarrassing loss to Oregon, and we’ve watched enough football to know teams bounce back the week after a national TV loss like the one Colorado suffered. However, the matchup against USC isn’t the opportunity for a bounce back. 

What USC does well is what Colorado does poorly. The Trojans defense is still suspect after the front four, and Shedeur Sanders will be able to find more space in the defense to complete passes. But if he doesn’t have time because USC’s defensive line gets to the quarterback, then the Buffs' passing game will be non-existent again. USC can allow chunk rushing plays because its defense can have gap-integrity issues, but I’m fearful Colorado’s rushing attack won't be able to exploit those issues. 

On the other side of the ball, USC will score points without any resistance from the Colorado defense. The Buffs' defense has played two offenses ranked 85th or better in efficiency. It allowed 42 to TCU, and that included two red zone interceptions by the Horned Frogs. It allowed 42 to Oregon, and the Ducks pulled their starters in the fourth quarter. USC has scored 56, 66, 56 and 42. 

USC is going to score in the 50s against Colorado, and that is what I’m going to wager on: USC to score over 48.5 points in this game. 

PICK: USC team total Over 48.5 points scored

Joel Klatt's Top 10 teams after Week 4

Joel Klatt breaks down his top 10 teams in college football after Week 4.

Iowa State at No. 14 Oklahoma (7 p.m. ET Saturday, FS1)

Iowa State’s offense ranks 119th in yards per drive and 113th in points per drive. The Cyclones are 130th in three-and-out percentage and 132nd in offensive explosiveness.  They just are not a good offense, and now they head to Oklahoma to play a Sooner team with a fantastic defense. 

It’s no surprise that Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables, former Clemson defensive coordinator, has the Sooner defense firing on all cylinders in Season 2 in Norman. The Oklahoma defense ranks second in points per drive, and the Sooners have done an above-average job at stopping explosive plays. The reason explosive play rate is important is because it forces a college offense to need more plays to score. That ultimately gives more opportunities for mistakes to be made. 

Iowa State will make mistakes on offense. I’m wagering on them Under 14.5 points.

PICK: Iowa State team total Under 14.5 points scored 

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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Oklahoma Sooners

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Troy Trojans

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Utah Utes

CFB - Utah Utes vs. Oregon State Beavers - 09/30/2023

CFB - Iowa State Cyclones vs. Oklahoma Sooners - 09/30/2023

CFB - USC Trojans vs. Colorado Buffaloes - 09/30/2023

Geoff Schwartz