College Football

2023 College Football Playoff odds: Experts' favorites, predictions, picks

Updated Jan. 1, 2024 10:02 a.m. ET

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Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Chris Fallica

FOX Sports Wagering Expert

Sam Panayotovich

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Jason McIntyre

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

It's officially time for the College Football Playoff (CFP) semifinals, and bettors are getting in on the action for the Sugar Bowl matchup between No. 2 Texas and No. 3 Washington and the Rose Bowl battle between No. 1 Michigan and No. 4 Alabama. 

In the "Granddaddy of Them All," Michigan is currently a 1.5-point favorite over Alabama in the Rose Bowl. Down South in the Sugar Bowl, the Longhorns are 4-point favorites over the Huskies.

Our experts — Chris "The Bear" Fallica, Sam "Sammy P" Panayotovich, Geoff Schwartz and Jason McIntyre — are here to give you their best bets, predictions and insights for the CFP semifinals.

Let's dive into their picks.

EXPERT PICKS

ROSE BOWL: NO. 1 MICHIGAN WOLVERINES vs. NO. 4 ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE 
5 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN

FINAL / OT

ALA 20 · MICH 27

NCAA FB

SPREAD

TO WIN

TOTAL

4

Alabama Crimson Tide

ALA

+2.0

+111

o46

1

Michigan Wolverines

MICH

-2.0

-132

u46

Chris "The Bear" Fallica: Alabama +1.5, Under 45 points

The Michigan offensive line, I worry about them. They're without Zak Zinter, and we saw the Alabama front play much better toward the end of the year. You worry about losing experience and a really good player and how it might affect them.

Jason McIntyre: Michigan -1.5

The Tide gets pushed around at the line of scrimmage, and Jim Harbaugh snaps a six-game bowl losing streak and advances to the title game.

Sammy P: Michigan moneyline (-125)

I’ll be in the minority here, and that’s okay. And obviously, betting against Nick Saban can be a nerve-wracking experience, especially with all the extra time to prepare. It still feels like this undefeated Michigan team is underrated.

Blue has multiple NFL dudes on defense — so does Bama, of course — and I think the lack of professional playmakers on the Tide side of the ball will be an issue. Give Jalen Milroe tons of credit for his in-season improvement, but Michigan’s defense is a bear. I like their ability to bring pressure toward the pocket.  

It’s also funny how Michigan gets knocked for a "weak schedule," while Bama laid in the weeds for most of the season in an SEC conference that was far from dominant compared to years past. I also picked Alabama against Georgia a month ago, so let’s not get anything twisted. 

If the Wolverines can hit some shots down the field against Bama’s impressive corners, it’ll allow their run game (2,103 yards and 35 TDs) to operate more efficiently. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy can throw on the run, too. 

Jim Harbaugh gets a lot of flack for a lack of success in the College Football Playoff, but I truly believe this is his best team yet. I’m willing to find out if that’s enough to beat Alabama. 

Geoff Schwartz: Michigan Under 23.5 points

This game is a toss-up for me, so I’m staying away from picking a winner. I’d lean Crimson Tide, but so does the rest of the country, and that’s not a spot where I like to wager. So, instead, I’m going to wager on the Alabama defense being able to stop Michigan’s offense.

Michigan's offense has played three good defenses this season: Penn State, Ohio State and Iowa. The Wolverines won all three because of their defense; the offense was not good. Michigan generated only 10 explosive plays in those three games combined, with six of them coming against the Nittany Lions.

A handful of explosive plays a game will not cut it against the Tide. 

The Wolverines should be healthier, which could help the offense, but the offensive line has regressed and J.J. McCarthy does not generate enough explosive passing plays for me to believe it’s going to happen against Alabama. We basically saw Michigan’s offensive structure in what Georgia attempted to do in the SEC Championship Game against Alabama. It didn’t work. So I have Michigan Under 23.5 points in this game. 

CFP Semifinals: Alabama vs. Michigan, Texas vs. Washington best bets and odds

SUGAR BOWL: NO. 2 WASHINGTON HUSKIES VS. NO. 3 TEXAS LONGHORNS 
8:45 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN

FINAL

TEXAS 31 · WASH 37

NCAA FB

SPREAD

TO WIN

TOTAL

3

Texas Longhorns

TEXAS

-3.5

-167

o61.5

2

Washington Huskies

WASH

+3.5

+141

u61.5

Pick from Chris "The Bear" Fallica: Texas -4

I like the Longhorns here. Of the four teams in the CFP, I think Texas is the most complete, well-rounded team with what the Longhorns can do offensively and with that front seven on defense. They have the most ways to beat you. 

It certainly wasn't a fluke that Texas won that game against Alabama in Tuscaloosa earlier in the year. The Longhorns aren't getting the full amount of respect they deserve for the season that they put together. 

I think one of the biggest keys to the game will be Washington's ability to stop the Texas running game. The Huskies will have to play zone. If they're forced to play man, that could be a problem. Also, can Washington's offensive line block the Longhorns? 

If Texas can pressure Michael Penix and force him to make decisions earlier than he would like, that will disrupt the Huskies' offense — something they didn't face a ton this year in the Pac-12.

Jason McIntyre: Texas -4

The Longhorns control the clock with a formidable run game, and Washington’s defense crumbles against Quinn Ewers.

Sammy P: Over 31.5 first-half points, lean Over 63 points 

I was trying to figure out if I wanted to play the first half Over or game Over? Sixty-three is a lot — but it's not when you have NFL talent all over the field. Washington has two receivers that are going to be in the NFL. Michael Penix has just been making all the throws.

These guys are going to be throwing bombs on the field, too. You have so much speed and skill on offense.

Schwartz: Over 31.5 first-half points

The first half of this game will feature fireworks from both offenses. Washington’s Kalen DeBoer, with his offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, design and scheme some of the best offensive plays in the sport. They're not a one-hit wonder either; they’ve been doing this together for years. 

While Texas is extremely sound in the middle of its defense, it has not seen a wide receiver corps or a quarterback like what Washington is going to present. The Huskies' coaching staff will have something ready for the Longhorns.

The same could be said for the Texas offense. Give Steve Sarkisian a month to prepare for a contest against a Washington defense that’s far better late in the game than early, and the Longhorns are bound to score quickly. The Huskies defense is not good on paper and has struggled early in games, often allowing the bulk of points in the first three quarters and then shutting teams down late. 

The Longhorns will establish the line of scrimmage early and hit play-action passes to generate early scores. I think we see a track meet in the first half. I like the Over 31.5 first-half points.

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College Football

Washington Huskies

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Texas Longhorns

J.J. McCarthy

Jalen Milroe

Quinn Ewers

CFB - Rose Bowl - 01/01/2024

Geoff Schwartz

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Jason McIntyre

Chris Fallica