College Football

College Football Odds: Why overs have ruled under Alabama's Nick Saban

Updated Jan. 6, 2022 4:27 p.m. ET

Another year, another opportunity for coach Nick Saban and Alabama to assert their dominance over college football. As the Crimson Tide attempt to win their second College Football Playoff (CFP) Championship in as many years, we are looking at some national title betting trends.

The three betting trends that stand out the most to us are Saban's record against the spread (ATS), Saban's over/under (O/U) record in both the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) and CFP eras and then, underdogs' performances ATS in national championship games.

Let's dive into these valuable observations, so you can make informed wagers on the CFP Championship game between No. 1 Alabama and No. 3 Georgia.

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 3 Georgia (8 p.m. ET Monday, January 10, ESPN)

Point spread: Georgia -3 (Georgia is favored to win by than 3 points, otherwise Alabama covers)
Moneyline: Georgia is a -150 favorite to win (bet $10 to win $16.67 total); Alabama is a +125 underdog to win (bet $10 to win $22.50 total)
Total scoring over/under: 52.5 points scored by both teams combined

Saban and Alabama are synonymous with championships during both the BCS and CFP eras. Under the BCS — the selection system that crowned champions from 1999 to 2014 — the Tide won three titles, the most by any team. Under its CFP offshoot, Saban & Co. have hoisted another three championship trophies. Again, the most by any team.

From a betting perspective, let's look at how valuable is has been to wager on Alabama's ball coach.

FOX Sports research found that Nick Saban is 5-4 ATS and 7-2 straight up (SU) in BCS and CFP national title games combined. So bettors who have been riding with Saban to cover and win have turned a profit.

But, what about the total? How has the legendary coach fared in that betting category?

According to FOX Sports research, the over has hit in seven of the nine (78%!) national title games (BCS and CFP combined) that Saban has coached. Most notably, the Tide hit the over of 75 in their 2021 championship win over Ohio State as they defeated the Buckeyes 52-24. So while the Tide are packing their trophy case with hardware, Bama over bettors have also been packing their pockets with cash.

The last trend deals with the fact that for the very first time in five championship appearances, Alabama is an underdog.

Per FOX Sports research, being the underdog might be in Bama's favor as underdogs are 5-2 ATS in the CFP national title game since 2015.

It's worth noting that this contest is a rematch of the 2018 CFP title game between these bitter SEC rivals. In that first installment, the Tide were favored, and Saban coached his squad to a 26-23 comeback win over the Dawgs. However, Georgia covered the spread in that matchup.

We can expect a historically dominant Georgia defense to put on a revenge-seeking show against Heisman winner Bryce Young and his top-ranked offense. But based on these betting trends, what's your favorite wager? Underdog Saban to add to his incredible record ATS? Or the Bulldogs to win straight up and cover?

Get in on the betting action right now at FOX Bet!

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