College Football

College Football Playoff expert picks: Who will win Fiesta, Peach Bowl?

Updated Dec. 29, 2022 4:42 p.m. ET

Michael Cohen

College Football and College Basketball Writer

Laken Litman

College Football & Soccer Analyst

Bryan Fischer

College Football Writer

RJ Young

FOX Sports College Football Analyst

With the College Football Playoff rapidly approaching, there are many questions fans are eager to see answered.

How did these four teams get here?

What are the keys to winning?

And what are some of the key statistics that could impact the games?

But now it's time to answer the most important question of all ahead of Saturday's CFP semifinal games: Who is going to win?

We asked our experts to predict how the Fiesta Bowl matchup between Michigan and TCU, and the Peach Bowl showdown between Georgia and Ohio State would turn out.

Here's what FOX Sports college football writers RJ Young, Michael Cohen, Laken Litman and Bryan Fischer had to say.

Who will win the Fiesta Bowl and why?

Young: In the rarified air of the CFP semifinals, the teams who can afford to make more mistakes than their opponents and win are those that play for national titles. Michigan is one of those teams. The Wolverines are sound in all three phases of the game and enjoy the most important advantage in the sport: They’re better on their offensive line than every defensive line they’ve faced. Against TCU, I expect to see UM do the monster mash against a defense built on speed and athleticism. Michigan is my pick to play for the program’s first national title game in 25 years.

Litman: We’re going to get a rematch in the national championship game. No, not another Ohio State-Michigan clash, but Michigan getting an opportunity for revenge on Georgia after getting blown out in last year’s CFP semifinal.

Cohen: When Michigan traveled to Ohio State in late November, that rendition of "The Game" was billed as a showdown between one of the highest-flying offenses in the country, led by Buckeyes’ quarterback C.J. Stroud, and one of the stingiest defenses in the country, led by first-year coordinator Jesse Minter. Predictions that Ohio State would be too explosive and too talented on the perimeter for the Wolverines to handle proved inaccurate for the second consecutive season, as head coach Jim Harbaugh’s club wrested away short-term control of the rivalry.

In some respects, Michigan’s date with TCU in the Fiesta Bowl feels like a similar setup. The Horned Frogs, led by plucky quarterback Max Duggan, rank sixth in scoring offense (40.3 points per game), 15th in total offense (473 yards per game) and have accrued more plays gaining at least 50 yards (19) than anyone in the country. Minter & Co. have already proved they can contend with that kind of firepower, and there’s a good chance Saturday’s game plays out the same way.

Fischer: I would put nothing past either of these teams given how good they are at utilizing adjustments and making the second half their own, but Michigan enters the Fiesta Bowl brimming with confidence and playing as well as any of the four teams in the playoff on both sides of the ball. TCU’s 3-3-5 defense could pose some issues for J.J. McCarthy if he’s not careful, but I think in general, that rushing attack is going to decidedly tilt things in favor of the Wolverines. Duggan and receiver Quentin Johnston could make some noise, but this feels like the more lopsided of the two semifinals.

The pick: Michigan (all four votes)

What's at stake for Michigan and TCU?

Who will win the Peach Bowl and why?

Litman: While I have to think that Ohio State will come out with an edge that it didn’t have in its last game against Michigan, Georgia isn’t going to let any team get in the way of it winning back-to-back national championships.

Young: There’s no question Ohio State could’ve gone blow-for-blow with Georgia if the Buckeyes were healthy. It’s going to be tough to do that on Saturday night down two of their more talented skill players on the offense (running back TreVeyon Henderson and receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba) and headed into an affair where they are the underdog for perhaps the first time since playing for the national title two years ago.

Georgia is my pick to win the game, but a Buckeyes upset wouldn’t surprise me in the least, especially given that OSU has more to lose and more to gain than UGA in this semifinal.

Fischer: If this turns into a track meet, I think the Stroud-Marvin Harrison Jr. connection could make things very interesting against the reigning national champions, who have, mind you, struggled at times against the likes of Kentucky, Missouri and Kent State. The Buckeyes have the talent to match on either side of the ball, but they will have to play one of those perfect games if they want to pull off the upset (not unlike a certain 2014 run that began by beating an SEC foe). The easy pick is Georgia given all the mismatches they create on offense and the way Jalen Carter causes havoc on nearly every snap, but OSU winning would hardly shock anybody given the way they looked like national title contenders for all but one game this year.

Cohen: A year ago, the defining characteristic of Michigan’s fairytale run to the Orange Bowl was the physicality that Harbaugh’s team imposed on opponents. The offense battered opponents with the two-headed rushing attack of Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum. The defense hounded opposing quarterbacks with the two-headed pass rush of Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo.

But then came Georgia. The Bulldogs and their bevy of future draft picks showed Michigan that "however big and bad you think you are, there’s somebody out there that can be bigger and badder," nose tackle Mazi Smith said. In other words, the same Wolverines who bludgeoned Ohio State on a snowy afternoon in Ann Arbor were themselves pummeled by a Georgia team with more talent and brute strength than anyone in the country. When it comes to raw power, there are distinct tiers.

Fast-forward to 2022, and Ohio State travels to the CFP a month removed from its second consecutive manhandling by Michigan. The task facing Day and his coaching staff is to transform that same group of players into a team capable of beating the juggernaut that demolished Harbaugh’s squad last season. The odds of that happening seem impossibly long.

The pick: Georgia (three votes)

Can the Buckeyes pull off the upset?

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RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast "The Number One College Football Show." Follow him on Twitter at @RJ_Young and subscribe to "The RJ Young Show" on YouTube.

Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She previously wrote for Sports Illustrated, USA Today and The Indianapolis Star. She is the author of "Strong Like a Woman," published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her on Twitter @LakenLitman.

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter at @Michael_Cohen13.

Bryan Fischer is a college football writer for FOX Sports. He has been covering college athletics for nearly two decades at outlets such as NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and NFL.com among others. Follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.