College Football

College Football Playoff: How each team can win the title

Updated Dec. 28, 2023 12:17 p.m. ET

RJ Young

FOX Sports National College Football Analyst

Laken Litman

College Football & Soccer Analyst

Michael Cohen

College Football and College Basketball Writer

Bryan Fischer

College Football Writer

We couldn't ask for a more intriguing field in the College Football Playoff.

In one semifinal, we have two blue bloods set to do battle in the Rose Bowl, as No. 1 Michigan (13-0) takes on No. 4 Alabama (12-1). It's a matchup of the two winningest programs in the sport's history (Michigan has 1,002 wins, Alabama has 965), and it takes place in the legendary setting in Pasadena.

In the other semifinal, we have a contest between No. 2 Washington (13-0) and No. 3 Texas (12-1) in the Sugar Bowl, a battle between rising programs that met a year ago in the Alamo Bowl.

Both teams are trying to return to past glory — the Longhorns are seeking their first championship since 2005, and the Huskies last earned a share of a championship by ranking No. 1 in the coaches poll following the 1991 season.

So we have four great teams, all of them conference champions, and each with a legitimate chance to notch two more wins and lift the trophy in Houston on Jan. 8.

In the meantime, we're providing a handy guide to each of the semifinalists.

FOX Sports college football experts Bryan Fischer, Michael Cohen, Laken Litman and RJ Young will each make a case for one of the final four teams, then they'll all share their picks at the end.

Let's dig into the credentials for each team and explain how each could win it all.

CFP previews: Alabama vs. Michigan, Texas vs. Washington

How Michigan can win the national title …

Bryan Fischer: Children pretty much everywhere are told from an early age that actions speak louder than words. When it comes to Michigan and the College Football Playoff road ahead of them, it’s hard not to think of that phrase ahead of this historic Rose Bowl.

To start with, there’s everything that the program has been doing throughout this campaign that points to being all in on winning its first national title since 1997. It starts with the players on the field, and head coach Jim Harbaugh has not been shy in saying this group of seniors and eligible underclassmen will not just challenge, but break, the record for most players taken in one NFL draft this coming spring.

A host of players bypassed the NFL last year to play in 2023, and so far that talent and depth have been a good reason why UM has a top-15 scoring offense and defense coming into the CFP. This is unquestionably the best of Michigan’s three CFP teams.

The Wolverines statistically have the best defense in the country, their defensive line is ferocious, they convert third downs, are solid in every phase of special teams, and have a knack for controlling games to grind out wins. They also have a quarterback who is 25-1 as a starter leading a roster that has been on the big stage and in big moments before. They’re good, they know it, and they’ve proven it by emerging undefeated out of the Big Ten.

Michigan wins third consecutive Big Ten championship

But more than that, everything the Wolverines — from the players to the administration to the coaching staff to, yes, even the analysts — have done outside the lines is to protect this run and this opportunity, because they know how special this group is. They also know how fleeting a chance it is and how the stars are seemingly aligned for this team to make this run.

It’s going to take a tremendous effort to make it through these next two games against excellent opponents.

J.J. McCarthy has to look like the first-round draft pick that Harbaugh has promised he will be. Blake Corum has to dominate between the tackles, but with an extra bit of burst given the athletes who will be chasing him down in January. Big-play threat Donovan Edwards has to show up, and somebody among that crop of pass catchers has to turn into a bona fide No. 1 target.

Kris Jenkins, Braiden McGregor and Mason Graham have to star for eight quarters. Will Johnson has to get his hands on the ball via deflection or interception, while Mike Sainristill has to be at the right place at the right time, as he has been so often since arriving in Ann Arbor.

There’s a lot that has to be done if Michigan wants to win the national title. But there are a lot of indicators — both external and internal — saying the Wolverines are capable of (and maybe even destined to) doing just that.

Breaking down the strengths of Michigan and Alabama

How Alabama can win the national title …

RJ Young: Jalen Milroe, get mobile.

Milroe still holds the ball too long, but he has grown, too. He threw two INTs against Texas in September — Bama’s only loss. Yet he's posted a 10:1 TD:INT ratio in Bama's last five games, including wins against LSU and Georgia. And I add LSU because he had 155 yards and four TDs on the ground in that win. If Milroe gets mobile, Michigan might get mauled.

The Tide also must keep Milroe upright.

Bama has allowed 43 sacks this season — second most in the SEC. But the Tide have cleaned up lately, allowing just eight sacks in their last five games.

At the skill positions, though, I honestly think neither team has an edge. Bama will call on Jermaine Burton, Isaiah Bond and Roydell Williams to carry them. But they're as good as Corum, Edwards and Roman Wilson. No one is a star. But everybody is good.

Georgia chose to double-spy Milroe and still couldn't shackle that man. That means the By God Georgia Defense assigned not one but two personal defenders to the quarterback and still couldn't keep him from playing recess in the backfield.

That means Milroe is a playmaker. If that continues, Bama can win the national title.

Can Alabama upset Michigan?

How Washington can win the national title …

Michael Cohen: The biggest reason Washington has a chance to win its first national championship since 1991 is because the Huskies enter the College Football Playoff with the most explosive offense of the four semifinalists, both schematically and on the scoreboard.

From a schematic standpoint, Washington’s willingness to pump the ball downfield with its vertical passing attack creates the kind of breakneck scoring drives that can either blow a game open or erase a deficit in the blink of an eye.

Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. attempted 100 passes that traveled at least 20 yards downfield this season, according to Pro Football Focus, completing 44 of them for 1,505 yards and 14 touchdowns. None of the other starting quarterbacks in this year’s CFP field attempted more than 64 such throws, with two of them attempting 44 or fewer.

Because of that willingness to throw deep, the Huskies enter the Sugar Bowl averaging 1.27 points per minute with the ball in their possession, and they’ve reached the end zone once every 6.02 minutes when their offense is on the field. Those scoring rates dwarf the remaining semifinalists in a reflection of just how swift, potent and efficient Washington’s offense can be under head coach Kalen DeBoer and offensive coordinator/play-caller Ryan Grubb:

— Washington: 1.27 points per minute; one touchdown every 6.02 minutes

— Alabama: 1.15 points per minute; one touchdown every 7.1 minutes

— Texas: 1.14 points per minute; one touchdown every 7.5 minutes

— Michigan: 1.12 points per minute; one touchdown every 7 minutes

Will Washington's passing game doom Texas?

So, it makes sense that Washington is the highest-scoring team in the field at 37.7 points per game, which ranks 11th nationally. Just like it makes sense that the Huskies surpassed their competitors in red-zone touchdowns with 45, a number bested by only four Power 5 programs this season. And it makes sense that Washington’s tally of 41 plays gaining at least 30 yards is better than Texas (38), better than Alabama (36) and more than double what Michigan managed (18) under offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore.

Of course, the vast majority of those points, touchdowns and long gains have come through the air with Penix at quarterback (307 of 466 for 4,218 yards and 33 TDs) and three NFL-caliber receivers in Rome Odunze (81 catches, 1,428 yards, 13 TDs), Ja’Lynn Polk (60 catches, 1,000 yards, 8 TDs) and Jalen McMillan (34 catches, 468 yards, 3 TDs), with the latter finally healthy after missing most of the season due to injury.

Slowing the Huskies is as much about finding ways to defend the best receiving corps in the country as it is getting pressure on Penix, who was only sacked 11 times in 13 games. Alabama might be the only CFP team with enough talent in the secondary to contend with Washington’s personnel after three Crimson Tide defensive backs earned Associated Press All-American honors earlier this month.

And it isn’t merely one player whom Penix relies on for his longest completions; all three of the Huskies’ leading receivers run deeper routes. Odunze leads the group with 34.4% of his targets coming on passes that traveled at least 20 yards downfield, catching 20 of them for 655 yards and six scores. The deep-ball rates for Polk and McMillan aren’t far behind at 28.3% of targets for the former and 25% of targets for the latter, the results of which are 648 combined yards and five more touchdowns.

Nobody else scores like the Huskies, and that’s why Washington has a legitimate chance.

How Texas can win the national title …

Laken Litman: There are a few ways in which Texas can win its first national championship since 2005, better known as Vince Young’s glory days.

Let’s start with the offense, which has been rolling recently. In the last two games, the Longhorns have piled up the points. There was the lopsided 57-7 win over Texas Tech to close out the regular season, followed by the convincing 49-21 victory over Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship that helped make the team’s final case for a College Football Playoff spot.

What has been so impressive about those wins is that they happened without some key playmakers, most notably running back Jonathon Brooks. He was Texas’ top back all season until he tore his ACL in a win over TCU on Nov. 11. Backups CJ Baxter, Jaydon Blue, Keilan Robinson, Savion Red and Quintrevion Wisner have stepped up and are averaging 207.7 rushing yards per game in Brooks’ absence.

Meanwhile, quarterback Quinn Ewers has plenty of other weapons at his disposal, with receivers Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell making plays on the perimeter. Worthy left the conference title game in the fourth quarter with a left ankle injury, but coach Steve Sarkisian said last week that Worthy has been practicing, and he thinks that every player will be available for the Sugar Bowl.

Is Texas' Quinn Ewers a top Heisman candidate for 2024?

While it’s hard to give the Horns an edge at quarterback, given Penix was a Heisman Trophy finalist, Ewers has been impressive. He’s in the top 10 in the country in completion percentage (70.7%), and that’s with missing two games due to injury. While his career so far has been up and down, Ewers has shown up when the lights are bright — think the Alabama, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State games — and Sarkisian’s play-calling has helped unlock his talent.

It helps, too, that Ewers is protected by arguably Texas’ most talented offensive line in years. Sarkisian has been recruiting big, athletic linemen on both sides of the ball in preparation for the SEC, and the unit looks like it.

Defensively, Texas has a ton of future NFL talent, from the veteran linemen tandem of T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy to edge rusher Ethan Burke to freshman linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. The Longhorns have the third-best run defense in the country, limiting opponents to 80.8 yards per game and with just seven touchdowns. Sweat in particular has been a dominant force all season. The 6-foot-4, 362-pound Outland Trophy winner has been one of the Longhorns’ most important players this season — and he even scored a touchdown in the Big 12 championship game.

If Texas brings its best on both sides of the ball, it’s easy to see this group beating Washington. Sarkisian has talked all year about peaking, and now his team is doing just that when it matters most.

When the Longhorns are at the top of their game, they can beat anybody, and that also includes potential future national championship opponents Michigan and Alabama.

Sugar Bowl preview: Texas vs. Washington

Time for your picks — who will win it all?

Michael: Alabama over Washington. This will be remembered as arguably the greatest coaching job of Saban’s illustrious career.

Laken: Alabama over Texas in a rematch of the 2009 national championship game. While the Longhorns would love nothing more than to get revenge and topple the Crimson Tide to win its first title since 2005, it’s never easy beating a team twice in the same year. It’s certainly possible — Sarkisian has Texas a bit ahead of schedule in terms of turning the program into a regular contender. But Saban is the master planner and will be motivated not to lose another national title to a former assistant coach.

RJ: Alabama. As I wrote on Thursday, Saban is the first Michigan State coach to beat Michigan on his very first try — 1995. Saban recently beat Michigan again in 2020 in the Citrus Bowl. He lives rent-free in the hearts and minds of Michigan men.

Bryan: Washington over Alabama. Saban has done a marvelous job with the Tide this season, but for some reason, it feels like the Huskies have that it factor as they cap off a final Pac-12 season in a fitting fashion.

The results:

Alabama — 3 votes
Washington — 1 vote
Michigan, Texas — 0 votes.

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Bryan Fischer is a college football writer for FOX Sports. He has been covering college athletics for nearly two decades at outlets such as NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and NFL.com among others. Follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter at @Michael_Cohen13.

Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She previously wrote for Sports Illustrated, USA Today and The Indianapolis Star. She is the author of "Strong Like a Woman," published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her on Twitter @LakenLitman.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast "The Number One College Football Show." Follow him on Twitter at @RJ_Young and subscribe to "The RJ Young Show" on YouTube.