College Football

College football Week 5 odds: Bet on Oregon to run all over Stanford, and more

Published Sep. 29, 2021 4:45 p.m. ET

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By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

After last week's college football slate featured only a couple of marquee matchups, we're blessed with several monster battles this week, especially in the South. 

For my Week 5 best bets, let's start in Athens for a top 10 slugfest, with all odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

NO. 8 ARKANSAS at NO. 2 GEORGIA (Total 49 at FOX Bet)

In a top 10 matchup between the visiting Arkansas Razorbacks and the host Georgia Bulldogs this weekend, points will be at a premium.

There wasn't a soul outside of Fayetteville, AR, who expected the Razorbacks to be undefeated after the first month of this season. Arkansas has won games by being physical in the trenches, something former offensive line coach turned head coach Sam Pittman has brought to his squad.

Yes, the Razorbacks are fast on offense, but this season's success is mainly due to their ability to bring it on defense. Arkansas is one of the best teams at generating pressure on the QB without blitzing much. That unit is also outstanding on third downs and has been able to strangle passing attacks, only allowing 3.5 adjusted air yards per attempt.

On offense, the Razorbacks are led by their dual-threat quarterback KJ Jefferson. The signal-caller got dinged up against Texas A&M last weekend but is expected to play this Saturday. Jefferson has accounted for 1,100 all-purpose yards through four games. 

However, his low completion percentage, the Razorbacks' 97th ranked passing efficiency offense, and the offense's general crumminess on third down (112th in the country) have me worried about Arkansas' ability to produce against this Bulldogs' defense, which boasts the best defensive line in the country.

Georgia has the No. 1 pass defense and the best defense in yards per play as well. I do think Arkansas will struggle to score in this contest.

On the other side of the ball, the Bulldogs' offense is well balanced, but early in the game, I expect Razorbacks' defensive coordinator Barry Odom to challenge a blocking unit that hasn't seen anything like this defense since Week 1.

As for the Georgia offense, its numbers are inflated. After the Week 1 win against Clemson, where the Bulldogs' offense scored only three points, UGA played UAB, South Carolina and Vanderbilt. These defenses provided zero challenge for the Georgia offense, which is why its numbers look better than they are.

The Razorbacks' defense is first in the sport at stopping explosive offensive plays, and if Arkansas keeps everything in front of it against the Bulldogs, it will force UGA to score on long drives. 

I eventually think the rushing attack and the bigger bodies of Georgia will lean on the Arkansas defense and have their way later in the game. But by then, the scoring will be low enough for the under to hit.

PICK: UNDER 49 combined points scored by both teams at FOX Bet

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NO. 12 OLE MISS at NO. 1 ALABAMA (Crimson Tide to score over 47.5 points at FOX Bet)

Here's what I know about this game: Alabama will score. 

In their last four matchups against the Rebels, the Crimson Tide have scored 66, 62, 59 and 63 points, respectively.

This Ole Miss defense is the best Lane Kiffin has fielded in his time in charge of the Rebels, but I don't think they have the dudes to hold down the Alabama offense when it's rolling.

Alabama was slowed down against Florida because the Gators' defense was able to out physical the 'Bama front, which is rare. 

It's not happening on Saturday.

Plus, with Ole Miss' ability to score, Nick Saban will have Bill O'Brien continuing to put his foot on the gas to score, score, score. 

Give me Alabama's team total over!

PICK: Crimson Tide (OVER 47.5 points scored at FOX Bet) to score more than 47.5 points

NO. 7 CINCINNATI (First half moneyline at FOX Bet) at NO. 9 NOTRE DAME

One reason we love college football is that the emotion of the game is much different than the NFL. Pro players are older, more mature, and have played in plenty of big games. Their performance doesn't get swayed by the magnitude of the game like it does with college football players.

In a season where it appears anyone outside of Alabama or Georgia can make the College Football Playoff, games like these help eliminate teams from that discussion. Or, more importantly for Cincinnati, it's a de facto play-in game. The Bearcats have no ranked opponents left on their schedule, so if they can beat the Irish, this would be the team's best opportunity to make a playoff in program history.

The Bearcats are also coming off a bye, allowing themselves an extra week to prepare for this contest. Cincinnati is a well-coached team without many flaws, but it can not compete physically against Notre Dame for the entire 60 minutes.

However, because of their bye week, the hype around this game, and the Irish's physical win on Saturday, I think the Bearcats will come out smoking. Cincinnati will have an enhanced playbook with new wrinkles to attack this stout Notre Dame defense. 

On defense, where the Bearcats might be at their strongest, look for them to attack the Irish offensive line, which has struggled this season. ND is still near the bottom of college football in yards per carry. Its left tackle, a third-stringer, had a tough outing against Wisconsin. 

Cincinnati will have a solid plan to attack the Irish offense as a whole. Notre Dame adjusted well to Wisconsin on Saturday, and I assume the Irish would do the same here. Over 60 minutes, their talent will eventually win out.

However, the Bearcats, sensing their ability to earn a playoff spot with a win, will come out looking to make a statement. I like the Bearcats in the first half of this contest.

PICK: Bearcats (First Half -125 moneyline at FOX Bet) to be leading at halftime

NO. 3 OREGON (-7.5; 57.5 at FOX Bet) at STANFORD

Let me start by saying I don't bet on my Ducks often. I also rarely wager on teams that are more than touchdown road favorites in conference play. However, I love them in this spot.

Oregon played down to its opponents in Stony Brook and Arizona and played up to Ohio State. The Ducks respect the Cardinal and will bring their A-game this Saturday.

Stanford isn't that good this season. The Cardinal weren't competitive against Kansas State or UCLA, beat a poor USC team, and crushed a weak Vanderbilt squad. Now, they get the Ducks, who are just a bad matchup for them.

Oregon's rushing attack is potent, while Stanford has one of the worst rushing defenses in all of college football. The Cardinal rank 117th in the country at stopping the run while also being in the back half of the nation in pressure rate on passing downs.

On the flip side, Stanford is a hit-or-miss offense. It ranks 112th in success rate but second in explosiveness. Guess what Oregon's defense does well? Limit big plays. Coming into this game, it ranks 19th in the country in explosive play rate.

The Ducks allow a ton of yards, but they don't give up a ton of points, ranking 37th in points per drive. I believe Oregon will have its way against this Stanford team.

Give me the Ducks!

PICK: Oregon (-7.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7.5 points 

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Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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Arkansas Razorbacks

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Ole Miss Rebels

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Geoff Schwartz