College Football

Joel Klatt: What to expect from Ohio State, Penn State in New Year's Six bowls

Updated Dec. 29, 2023 1:46 p.m. ET

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Joel Klatt

College Football Analyst

After several weeks of coaching changes, transfers and recruiting dominating the news cycle, we finally have some games to talk about in the college football world.

Bowl season heats up in the coming days, as we have three of the New Year's Six bowls taking place Friday and Saturday. We also have several other enticing bowl games on the schedule. 

As we wait for the College Football Playoff semifinals on New Year's Day, I broke down the other four New Year's Six bowls on a recent episode of my podcast, "The Joel Klatt Show."

Ohio State kicks off the New Year's Six bowl schedule with a matchup against Missouri in the Cotton Bowl on Friday, and another Big Ten powerhouse program, Penn State, is set to take the field Saturday against No. 11 Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl.

Let's take a look at the challenges that await Ohio State and Penn State this weekend. 

Cotton Bowl: No. 7 Missouri Tigers vs. No. 9 Ohio State Buckeyes, 8 p.m. ET, Friday at AT&T Stadium

It started with Ohio State favored by 6.5 points. As of Tuesday, Missouri is favored by 2.5 points. What a wild-swinging line. So, you know the money just poured in on Missouri to move the line by that many points. 

Two major players for Ohio State had decisions to make ahead of Friday's game, and we still don't have clarity on one of them. Marvin Harrison Jr. and TreVeyon Henderson have not declared for the NFL Draft up to this point. Henderson plans to play for the Buckeyes in the Cotton Bowl, but we still aren't sure about Harrison, who has been present, but limited in practices leading up to the game. 

Meanwhile, several other draft-eligible players at Ohio State have confirmed they will play in this game, such as Emeka Egbuka, Denzel Burke, Jack Sawyer, Donovan Jackson and Tyleik Williams.

Joel Klatt explains how Kyle McCord's transfer could impact Ohio State

But there are some notable players from Ohio State who won't be playing in the Cotton Bowl after entering the transfer portal. Obviously, quarterback Kyle McCord is chief among them. Chip Trayanum, who was the backup running back to Henderson, also entered the portal, so he won't be suiting up for the Buckeyes. Julian Fleming, who was the former No. 1 wide receiver recruit in the country, also departed Ohio State after its last game.

I will be curious to see how Ohio State does with the players replacing those who are in the portal. 

Devin Brown is starting at quarterback for the Buckeyes, and this is an amazing opportunity for him. He gets the chance to showcase himself and make his case to be Ohio State's starting quarterback in 2024. I don't think Ohio State is as aggressive as some other top schools searching for a quarterback in the portal, so it makes you think Ryan Day is comfortable with Brown starting this game and moving into the offseason competing for the starting job, at the very least. He'll likely be competing with freshman Lincoln Kienholz and incoming freshman Air Noland for that gig.

Now, the portal will open back up again after spring practice, and some other quarterbacks could become available for Ohio State's taking. If none of those three are able to stand out during the spring, maybe the Buckeyes bring in a quarterback ahead of the summer.

But we've still got several months to get to that point. As Brown gets his chance to prove his possible standing for 2024, wide receiver Carnell Tate is another player to watch for the Buckeyes as he gets an incredible opportunity Friday. Everybody raves about the true freshman in that program. They all talk about Tate being the next great Ohio State wide receiver, and the Buckeyes have recruited incredibly well at that position. Year in and year out, the Buckeyes get the best high school receivers in the country before developing them into first-round draft picks. Tate has a chance to be another one of those guys. 

Even with Henderson playing Friday, Ohio State could opt to play some more of its depth at running back. We could see a lot more of Dallan Hayden. Buckeyes fans have raved about the sophomore, hoping he gets more playing time. Well, he might get that opportunity Friday. 

Of course, this isn't the bowl game Ohio State had its eyes set on this season. Ryan Day is coming off his third straight loss to Michigan, which was just his seventh loss over his five seasons as Ohio State's head coach. Going into that game in Ann Arbor, didn't you sense and feel that there was a lot of pressure on Day? If he'd lost to an acting head coach (Sherrone Moore) and his third game in a row to Michigan, didn't you think that Buckeyes fans would have their claws out for him? I don't think the aftermath of that loss in November was all unicorns and rainbows, but I didn't sense that the fan base was as adamant about Day needing to go as I anticipated. Maybe the criticism mostly fell on McCord because of his two interceptions. 

Either way, winning this game could really help Day going into the offseason. You don't want the same feeling you had last season, when you lost to Michigan before losing in the College Football Playoff. This Missouri team isn't the Georgia team that Ohio State lost to last year, but it had a really great season. The Tigers' only losses this year came against LSU and Georgia. They are looking to finish in the top 10 for the first time since 2013. 

Kyle McCord announces transfer to Syracuse

I really like the way Missouri is built offensively because it's got a good bit of balance. The Tigers found that balance with a former walk-on in Cody Schrader. The running back was tremendous this season, averaging nearly 200 yards from scrimmage in Missouri's last five games. He was a finalist for the Doak Walker Award and won the Burlsworth Trophy, which goes to the best former walk-on in the nation. The graduate running back averaged 124 rushing yards per game, which was second to only Ollie Gordon. 

In so many ways, Schrader had a big finish to the season because of what Brady Cook and Luther Burden were doing early in the season, as they dominated in the passing game. Cook threw for 3,189 yards and Burden had 1,197 receiving yards. So, there are a lot of threats offensively for Missouri. 

The Tigers' ability to throw and run the ball presents some problems for the Buckeyes. If Ohio State isn't ready to go, Missouri can absolutely win this game. If you get a fully engaged Ohio State team, I think it's a better team than Missouri, even with Brown at quarterback. But, who knows what level of engagement we're going to get from the Buckeyes?

I just don't see a scenario where Ohio State can be without its quarterback plus its top receiver from this season and be able to beat a team as good as Missouri. It's hard to really make a pick when we don't know if the Buckeyes will be with two of their best players or not. 

Peach Bowl: No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 11 Ole Miss Rebels, Noon ET, Saturday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium

When I was looking at this game, I immediately thought to myself, "This game feels like it could be a first-round game in the College Football Playoff next year." The way these two teams have recruited and set themselves up for 2024, it won't shock me if we see both of these teams in the 12-team playoff.

As for this year, Penn State is favored in this one by 3.5 points. The only real opt-out for the Nittany Lions is Chop Robinson. That's a big loss, because Robinson is a fantastic defensive end. But several other leaders on that team, including ones who've declared for the NFL Draft, will play in this one Saturday to try to finish this season on the right note. 

Can Penn State stop Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl?

Robinson isn't the only key defensive loss for Penn State, though. The team also lost defensive coordinator Manny Diaz, who accepted an offer to become Duke's head coach earlier in December. He had a highly successful two years coaching that unit in Happy Valley, ranking as one of the best defenses in the country. Former Indiana Hoosiers coach Tom Allen, who has ties to Ole Miss, is expected to replace Diaz.

But this defense is still really good outside of Robinson and Diaz. Penn State was No. 1 in total yards, yards per play allowed and sacks per game. It was also No. 3 in scoring defense.

While we know Penn State's really good on defense, we also know it struggled on offense. The Nittany Lions made a change at offensive coordinator earlier in the month, hiring Kansas' Andy Kotelnicki for the same role he had in Lawrence. That Jayhawks offense was the envy of a lot of people in college football. He did a really remarkable job for Lance Leipold over the last two years. 

A win Saturday would give James Franklin his fifth 11-win season in his 10-year tenure at Penn State. Ole Miss, meanwhile, has never won 11 games in its program history. So, there's a lot on the line for the Lane Train. 

Lane Kiffin has already had a hot offseason. No one has done a better job in the transfer portal heading into the bulk of bowl season. Now, Ole Miss gets to take on a Penn State team that has gone 0-4 against Michigan and Ohio State, but has won all 21 of its other games over the last two seasons. 

Ole Miss had an interesting season, losing by 14 to Alabama before the Crimson Tide really got rolling. The Rebels lost by 35 to Georgia in November. They went 4-0 in one-score games. 

Quinshon Judkins didn't reach the 1,500-yard mark for rushing like he did as a freshman, but he got better as the season went along and as he got healthy. He ran for 100 yards in five of the last eight games. Jaxson Dart just wrapped up his second season as a starting quarterback and is coming back for his senior season, so there could be something to build off Saturday for the Rebels. 

I love this matchup. Kiffin has built his team through the portal and recruiting to be really good next year. Franklin has one of the best sophomore classes in the country. Both sides expect to be in the mix for the 12-team College Football Playoff. Ole Miss could be a trendy pick to finish in one of the top runner-up spots in the SEC, which would certainly make it a playoff-caliber team.

But, for Saturday's game, that loss to Georgia last month is alarming for Ole Miss. I like Penn State because I think that defense is going to do a nice job against Judkins, though it could be a close game. 

Joel Klatt is FOX Sports' lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast "The Joel Klatt Show." Follow him on Twitter at @joelklatt and subscribe to the "Joel Klatt Show" on YouTube.

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CFB - Cotton Bowl - 12/30/2023

CFB - Peach Bowl - 12/30/2023

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