PGA Tour

2023 Mexico Open odds, predictions: Favorites and picks from the field

Updated Apr. 26, 2023 11:08 a.m. ET

By Vik Chokshi
FOX Sports Gambling Staff

We head to Vidanta in Vallarta, Mexico, this week for the Mexico Open.

The Greg Norman-designed course is a par-71 that measures at 7,456 yards with paspalum greens.

Defending champion Jon Rahm opened as the huge betting favorite to win the tournament, +260 at FOX Bet.

Now that we teed off with the basics, let's approach the favorites and my outright portfolio for this tournament.

Mexico Open Odds & Field

Jon Rahm +260 (bet $10 to win $36 total)
Tony Finau +750 (bet $10 to win $85 total)
Wyndham Clark +1800 (bet $10 to win $190 total)
Gary Woodland +2200 (bet $10 to win $230 total)
Nicolai Hojgaard +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total)
Maverick McNealy +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Patrick Rodgers +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Byeong Hun An +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total)
Beau Hossler +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Alex Noren +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total)
Stephan Jaeger +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total)
Alex Smalley +4500 (bet $10 to win $460 total)
Emiliano Grillo +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)

Odds for the complete field at FOX Bet

Rahm is clearly the best player in this field, but I can't justify playing him at this number. Here are a few other players and bets worth sprinkling a few bucks on.

"The Gimme"

Aaron Rai to finish top 20 (+175 at FOX Bet)

Rai doesn't fit the tab of a big hitter, but his approach game will keep him in contention with this weaker field. He's been playing solid golf, with two recent top-20 finishes. Rai also ranks sixth in Strokes Gained Off The Tee over the last 36 rounds. He was in the top 10 here last year after each of the first three rounds before falling out of contention. I'm also tossing a couple of bucks on him at +4500 to win it all.

"Grip it and Rip it"

Vincent Norman (+9000 at FOX Bet)

Norman is a big hitter who ranks in the top 20 in driving distance. This layout will help his game, and he has three top-25 finishes over his past five starts. If you want to take a big swing out of the box, throw some pizza money down on Norman to take it down.

Other Outrights

Gary Woodland (+2200 at FOX Bet)

Woodland's skill set fits this course to a tee. He's a long hitter with solid iron play. Woodland ranks second in Strokes Gained Ball Striking over the last 36 rounds. He'll be one of the three best players in this event, but that isn't reflected in the odds.

Patrick Rodgers (+3000 at FOX Bet)

Rodgers has had two solid showings recently, with a fifth-place finish at the Valero Open and a T-19 at the RBC Heritage. He had a top-10 finish here last year, which makes sense, as he plays his best on paspalum greens.

Emiliano Grillo (+5000 at FOX Bet)

Grillo finished 33rd here last year but comes into this event in much better form, as he finished seventh at the RBC Heritage just a couple of weeks ago. The metrics show Grillo is another guy that putts well on paspalum greens.

Ben Martin (+5000 at FOX Bet)

Martin is playing the best golf in his pro career right now, making seven individual straight cuts and four top-15 finishes (three top 10s) in that stretch. He's also gaining strokes ball striking over the last 20 rounds.

Are you ready to get in on the golf action? Head over to FOX Bet to place your wagers now!

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