Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
After counting down the top ten prospects for every organization in MLB, who are the top seven in the league?
An Introduction
Call To The Pen contributor Benjamin Chase has released his top 10 prospects from every MLB minor league system over the last month or so, and he’s put together some research into each minor league system through contacts in the game, reading reviews from other reports, and his own research and reviews.
He has taken the 30 minor league systems and ranked them from #1 to #30. Currently, the way they break down, in Ben’s eyes, there are 7 elite systems, 7 “ugly” systems, and 16 that sit firmly in the middle. That doesn’t mean that a team in the bottom couldn’t move up through a few trades by the end of the offseason, as one of the teams that would have been in the “ugly” portion is now in the “elite” section after offseason trades. Teams can also jump up quickly into that elite group as only two of the the 7 teams in that elite group would have been considered elite just one year ago at this time.
These rankings take into consideration four main factors in rankings – elite prospects, system depth in legitimate prospects, proximity to majors of legitimate prospects, and system reputation for developing their prospects into productive major league players.
Before we get into this dispatch of the list, let’s take a look at the stats on how the list ended up distributed among the divisions…
Best average ranking: NL Central, 11.6
Most teams in the top 7: Tie – NL West and NL East, 2
Most teams in the bottom 7: Tie – AL Central and NL West, 2
This was a lot of fun to put together, and after the first of the year, we’ll be releasing a top 125 prospects in all of baseball from Ben as well, so be looking for that!
Let’s finish with this installment of the elite seven teams at the top of the rankings!
Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
7. Los Angeles Dodgers
Coming into 2016, there wasn’t much argument about the top farm system in the game. The Dodgers were pretty clearly the top system, with two of the top 10 prospects in the entire game, along with as many as 8 top 100 guys along with many guys right on the cusp of top 100 lists.
Even with the graduation of Corey Seager and Julio Urias to the major leagues and off of prospect lists, the Dodgers are still ripe with elite prospects. They are one of the few teams that are elite in team performance and their minor league system right now, and while their financial position has a lot to do with that, the Dodgers have made very smart investments lately as well to build up their system.
Elite prospects – I considered 7 Dodger prospects for my top 125 list, but 3 of those were top 25, and 5 were top 75 type of guys. The Dodgers definitely have the elite of the elite, even after graduating two elite guys in 2016.
System depth in legit prospects – The Dodgers saw guys like Andrew Toles and Brock Stewart come up and offer production for the team, and they have a number of guys just like that still in their system on top of those elite players.
Proximity to majors of legit prospects – The AA/AAA rosters are fairly stacked with guys who can help the major league roster as bullpen or bench pieces at the very least. Of their top 10 prospects on my list, 4 reached at least AA in 2016.
System reputation – The Dodgers have invested well into their coaching and scouting, and they’ve really seen this in their drafting and in the Cuban markets, getting excellent production from their drafts and Cuban signees.
The Dodgers have an industry reputation for working well individually with players rather than forcing a system method on players. That has shown in their ability to maximize guys with skill sets like Stewart and Toles that are often lost in many organizations’ systems.
Top 5 Born 1991 or since (age 25 season this year)
1. Corey Seager
2. Julio Urias
3. Joc Pederson
4. Alex Wood
5. Trayce Thompson
Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
6. Chicago White Sox
Coming into this offseason, the White Sox would have been in that bottom group of systems, and they’re now being discussed in the top group, which tells you just how much talent they got in their trades of Chris Sale and Adam Eaton.
The team is still listening on players like Jose Quintana, Jose Abreu, and Melky Cabrera, all of whom could have value to teams out there and could bring in more prospect return to pad this system.
Elite prospects – This is where the system now shines. The White Sox had 9 guys I considered in my top 125, and they will have 4 guys who are solid top 50 guys, including 3 who should be top 25 guys. The system thins out quickly, though.
System depth in legit prospects – This is where the biggest issue in the system is. The White Sox had very little depth in the system before the trades, and the trade acquisitions have brought in a handful of elite players, but they haven’t built up quite the depth yet to truly move into that top 2-3 system in the game category.
Proximity to majors of legit prospects – Of their major acquisitions, it would not be surprising to see three of the four biggest names make the majors for opening day, and of their other prospects in the top 10, two reached the upper minors beyond those three. Outside of that, however, they’re fairly shallow in ready talent at the upper levels.
System reputation – The White Sox have struggled to produce talent from their own system recently, which has predicated this rebuild. They have taken some steps to overhaul things now in their system, but it remains to be seen how much they’ll do in their scouting and development to increase the quality of those areas, both of which have been considered subpar at times.
Top 5 Born 1991 or since (age 25 season this year)
1. Carlos Rodon
2. Yoan Moncada
3. Tim Anderson
4. Reynaldo Lopez
5. Lucas Giolito
Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
5. San Diego Padres
The Padres have had a very odd path since hiring A.J. Preller, with him having a directive initially to spend the prospect capital needed to build an instant contender in San Diego, but when that didn’t work, he was directed to blow it all up and rebuild.
The Padres have gone all in on their rebuild, arguably getting as close to Houston Astros “scorched earth” tear down as any team has since the Astros did it. Their recent drafting of multiple Rule 5 picks in the Rule 5 draft at the winter meetings indicates that the 2017 Padres roster will not be a pretty one, to say the least.
That said, the Padres made an incredible investment in Latin America in 2016, and they also had one of the biggest draft budgets in the 2016 draft and used it well across their draft.
Elite prospects – I considered 6 of the Padres players for my top 125, but their system is more rich in guys who are likely to be elite in a year or two than are currently elite with the extreme depth at the lower levels.
System depth in legit prospects – Right now, the Padres do have some very solid prospects who have proven their floor, though they’re behind those guys who have elite ceilings right now.
Proximity to majors of legit prospects – Of the top 10, only three saw time in the upper minors, but two of them should be in the every day starting lineup in 2017, and they should see two other guys from their farm system claim starting spots in the rotation or starting lineup in 2017.
System reputation – The Padres have invested heavily in their farm system, and they’ve received very high marks for the work they’ve done with young arms thus far, getting tremendous production from arms that many didn’t see a big future for.
On the hitting side, one of the struggles the Padres have is properly evaluating their players as they work their players up in hitting-rich environments, which can lead to bad habits that get tough to break at the major league level.
The Padres will be getting to test that out this season, however, as at least 1/3 of their starting 9 on any given day in 2017 was a minor leaguer in 2016, so they’ll see how those guys adjust in 2017.
Top 5 Born 1991 or since (age 25 season this year)
1. Anderson Espinoza
2. Manny Margot
3. Adrian Morejon
4. Hunter Renfroe
5. Austin Hedges
Mandatory Credit: Rick Wood/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel via USA TODAY NETWORK
4. Milwaukee Brewers
If I were to grade rebuilds in the major leagues and their overall effectiveness from where the team was before the rebuild to where they are now, the Brewers would absolutely get the highest marks.
This was a system that was getting comments like the current Angels system gets for a number of years as the Brewers consistently used any prospects they did have to generate trades for runs at the playoffs, some of those runs ill-fated as they ended up missing out on the postseason anyway.
The Brewers seem to get tremendous depth in every trade they make, and not just in “okay” prospects, but in guys that are elite or borderline elite prospects. Their offseason trade with the Red Sox is a good example. They turned a reliever that closed for all of two months (after they’d traded their previous closer in a midseason deal) to the Red Sox for a player that should start at the big league level for the Brewers, a top 10 prospect in the system, and another depth prospect with a high upside.
These trades have left the Brewers with a very, very bright future, and they’ve still seen the team improve on the field as well, improving 4.5 games in 2016 over their 2015 season while in the midst of a rebuild.
Elite prospects – I considered seven of the Brewers prospects for my top 125, but they have as many as 4 more guys who would be in the consideration if I made it a top 150. There is a very good group at the very top of this system for sure.
System depth in legit prospects – The Brewers have a very good blend of guys who are low in the system and more ceiling than floor, but they also have many guys who have established that they could be something quite good, and they are deep in low level prospects as well.
Proximity to majors of legit prospects – Of the top 10 prospects, six played in the upper minors this season. The Brewers also have a handful more guys off of the top ten in AA/AAA that should contribute to the big league club in 2017.
System reputation – The Brewers have overhauled their system recently, so there’s not a ton of background on how their players develop. They have shown an ability to get the most out of raw athletes like Hernan Perez.
The Brewers have shown an ability to work with pitchers with elite stuff and turn them from throwers to pitchers or move them into the bullpen to harness their raw stuff, as they did eventually with Tyler Thornburg before trading him.
Top 5 Born 1991 or since (age 25 season this year)
1. Orlando Arcia
2. Domingo Santana
3. Jonathan Villar
4. Lewis Brinson
5. Zach Davies
Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
3. New York Yankees
The Yankees used the high price for relievers in the market to do a quick boost to their already-brimming farm system this summer, moving them into this class.
After spending big in the international market in 2014, the Yankees began to see some of the fruits of that class in the Appalachian League in 2016 and that has added to their prospect depth in their system, but it wasn’t until they really hit hard in the trade market that they pulled in players that were considered elite in the game.
Right now, the Yankees have the ability to see a big wave of young talent hit the major leagues in the next 3-5 years on top of the team’s ability to spend big in the major leagues.
Elite prospects – I reviewed 11 Yankees prospects for the top 125, and they have 2-3 more that would be considered if I expanded the list. This is a deep system, but a very raw system beyond the top 10-12 guys as far as the talent is concerned.
System depth in legit prospects – The Yankees have added a good amount of depth in the draft and through development in the last few years before adding significantly in trades to their guys who are prospects. The maturity of their international signings into players to do more than dream on has allowed the Yankees to build significant depth.
Proximity to majors of legit prospects – The Yankees saw three of their top 10 make the upper minors in 2016, and likely will only see one contribute at all, if he even makes it to the big leagues, in 2017. The majority of the Yankees depth in prospects are 3-4 years away.
System reputation – The Yankees have built up a very good reputation for developing pitchers and helping them to add velocity and/or harness the velocity they already have. Many felt that Dillon Tate coming to the Yankees was possibly the best system he could end up in for that reason.
While the Yankees prospects tend to get more publicity due to their market, often they suffer some prospect fatigue in their development along the way. Guys like Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez took their time getting to the major leagues, but their development time was quite normal and the Yankees have shown an ability to work well with their hitters to get the most out of their bats.
Top 5 Born 1991 or since (age 25 season this year)
1. Gary Sanchez
2. Gleyber Torres
3. Greg Bird
4. Clint Frazier
5. Luis Severino
Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
2. Atlanta Braves
The Braves used their strong farm system to anchor their long streak of division titles in the 1990s and early 2000s, but that farm system had fallen off by 2013, and when the team’s performance fell off strong in the 2014 season, the Braves decided to make the move to rebuild their system.
They traded away nearly everyone on the major league roster, then turned around after the 2015 season and did the same thing. Specifically a pair of trades each with the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres built up the system over the course of a calendar year, with two separate deals with the Padres in the 2014-2015 offseason, one deal with the Diamondbacks in the 2015 season and one in the 2015-2016 offseason, overhauled the system through the players and draft picks acquired in those trades.
The Braves also went very heavy into the international market this season and brought in one of the highest-regarded international prospects since Miguel Sano and Miguel Cabrera when they signed Kevin Maitan.
Elite prospects – The Braves had 12 guys I considered for the top 125, and they have built a level of elite guys that is enviable in the game right now, and they should lead most prospect lists in total prospects on the list this offseason.
System depth in legit prospects – The Braves have a wealth of big time ceiling in their system and have some very solid players that should be in AAA this season with a path to be major league contributors.
Proximity to majors of legit prospects – This is the spot where I’d ding the Braves just a bit this offseason. They have traded away a number of their major-league ready prospects this offseason in a couple of deals that you can’t really argue with, but it does mean that their legit prospects are primarily guys that are a number of years away from the big leagues.
System reputation – Under Frank Wren, many of the top scouts and coaches in the Braves reputed minor league system had left for other organizations. When Wren left, the Braves were able to bring back many of those guys along with recruiting in many other well-regarded people in the game.
The Braves have one of the most reputed minor league pitching coaches in the game with their Mississippi affiliate. They also have received excellent marks for their work on defense with their players in the system at all positions, but especially in the outfield and behind the plate.
The Braves have struggled to produce bats outside of Freddie Freeman in recent years, so they will hope that guys like Swanson and Albies are a turn in the other direction for their organization. Yes, the organization will be focused on pitching depth, but hitting development will be the key to the system’s success at the major league level.
Top 5 Born 1991 or since (age 25 season this year)
1. Dansby Swanson
2. Julio Teheran
3. Mike Foltynewicz
4. Ozzie Albies
5. Matt Wisler
Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
1. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies fans have struggled with the team’s direction the last couple of seasons after seeing the big-time success that the organization had from 2001-2012, when they never once won less than 80 games, making the World Series twice, and winning a title in 2008.
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The core of that 2008 team, however, aged quickly, and as they did, the team went backward in a hurry, with four seasons with 89, 89, 99, and 91 losses, respectively in the last four seasons. This year’s record is a bit of a misnomer as well as the team started “hot” with a 24-17 record as of May 18th, ending that day just a half-game out of first place before the team struggled the rest of the way.
The Phillies have done well building up their system from the ground up, and their farm system has quietly become the best in the game. While many talk about the Yankees or the Braves, the Phillies have really added a ton of players, building plenty of depth, a good system of instruction, and investing in their scouting to bring in the best players as well.
Elite prospects – I considered seven Phillie prospects for the top 125, but they had another 5 guys that easily would have been in consideration for a top 150.
System depth in legit prospects – This is where the Phillies are just incredible. While not elite guys, the Phillies have guys to consider for future major league jobs (and not as relievers or bench guys, but as legit lineup guys or starters) until you get to about #40 on their team list, which is absolutely incredible to consider. Someone like Ben Lively wouldn’t even sniff a top 20 for me in their system, but he has a very solid chance of being a #4/#5 starter for a number of years in the league.
Proximity to majors of legit prospects – The Phillies have four players who were on their top 10 and were at the upper minors, in spite of the incredible depth of talent at their lower levels. They have a lot of guys on their AA/AAA rosters who should be contributing to the big league club in the next two seasons.
System reputation – The Phillies have been bringing in a lot of talent lately and seeing some take off in the big leagues and some struggle. The reasons why are scattered, but many have seen their system directives on the pitching side really become much more individual, which leads to a lot of positive hope for young elite arms like Franklyn Kilome, Adonis Medina, and Sixto Sanchez at the lower levels.
The Phillies did see one of the skews of their system as Dylan Cozens and Rhys Hoskins, two guys who did not make my top 10, though Cozens was in consideration, combined for 78 home runs in the launching pad that is their Reading stadium. That does skew the ability to truly judge how players are handling upper minors when they have a stadium that hitter-friendly.
The Phillies will have plenty of raw talent coming up to those upper minors environments in the next few years, so we’ll be able to see how those young players handle that altered upper minors environment in their development.
Top 5 Born 1991 or since (age 25 season this year)
1. Maikel Franco
2. Aaron Nola
3. Vince Velasquez
4. Odubel Herrera
5. Mickey Moniak
Thanks for reading the series! Hope you enjoyed it!!
Agree? Disagree? Fire off in the comments, and let’s discuss!!
