Major League Baseball

Note to Astros: Start spending before your title window closes

Updated Jan. 18, 2024 10:15 p.m. ET

It's been more than two months since the Astros nearly appeared in their fifth World Series in less than a decade, and all their offseason has shown thus far is that Jim Crane is not interested in maximizing what increasingly looks like the final year of his championship core.

The inactivity has left Houston in a precarious position. Alex Bregman and José Altuve are set to enter free agency before next Thanksgiving. Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez will no longer be under team control after the 2025 season. As of now, only Yordan Álvarez and Jeremy Pena are on track to be in the Astros lineup in two years.

The Astros’ championship core being potentially dismantled was always going to be a challenging situation to confront. Losing those key players was always going to be difficult to maneuver, let alone overcome. But, the Astros still have another shot at another title. This upcoming season is a big one, if only because Bregman, Altuve, Tucker, Valdez and Justin Verlander are still donning their orange and navy jerseys. Peña, the club’s rookie 2022 World Series MVP, will enter a prove-it year following his 2023 regression. Even at the back end of the bullpen, 2024 could be the last time we see the thrilling duo of Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu. Pressly, entering his age-35 season, will become a free agent after this year, with a mutual option for 2025.

So, there could be a lot to look forward to.

Yet, rather than really going for it this offseason and making impactful deals to support that core while it's still intact, Crane and general manager Dana Brown have maintained the status quo. Houston's offseason, their overall game plan, has been a mystery.

It shouldn't be this cryptic. It's simple, really. If Crane wants to get the most juice out of his core while it's still reporting to Minute Maid Park, he must spend on the weakest areas of the roster. Lucky for him, there aren't many deficiencies.

While the Astros lineup doesn't need much aid — except for a productive outfielder, preferably left-handed to balance their righty-heavy offense — their current pitching depth, mainly in the bullpen, does not look capable of a deep playoff run. Verlander and Valdez leading the rotation is encouraging enough. And Pressly and Abreu make up one of the best, if not the best, setup and closer duos in baseball. Houston's bullpen doesn't only hinge on Pressly's and Abreu's success, but their relief corps is bleak beyond those high-leverage arms.

They've had three relievers — Hector Neris, Phil Maton, and Ryne Stanek — depart in free agency. Kendall Graveman will be sidelined for the entirety of the 2024 season following shoulder surgery. That leaves just veteran Rafael Montero, who had a 5.08 ERA and 1.53 WHIP last year, as a definite bullpen arm, in addition to Pressly and Abreu.

At the very least, the Astros need to make every effort to get Neris back in their bullpen. He declined an $8.5 million player option at the start of this offseason, so that's an indication of how much more he might command through free agency right now. Other teams, like the New York Yankees, are reportedly interested in adding Neris to their relief corps. And with spring training just a few weeks away, teams are getting desperate to finish building their rosters. It’s possible Neris’ asking price will soon leap higher than Crane is willing to spend. Interestingly, The Athletic reported Thursday that the club is "making a push" for Josh Hader, who is believed to be seeking the largest contract ever for a closer.

But would Crane be willing to go that high? So far, he's spent just $12 million in free agency to acquire backup catcher Victor Caratini. We know Brown is leading Houston's brass with limited financial flexibility, which he alluded to at the winter meetings. His confidence in the Astros' internal options to address weaker areas is eyebrow-raising, at least offering a glimpse into their strategy of cost control. Earlier this offseason, The Athletic shed light on Crane's historic unwillingness to exceed the luxury tax, which could once again be at play this winter.

Right now, the Astros are hovering just around that first CBT threshold of $237 million. Adding another player, like Neris, would put them over that mark. But crossing the luxury tax would be reasonable this offseason, if not necessary, to support what could be the championship core's final season together.

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And if Crane doesn't believe this core can reach the World Series this year with a few pitching reinforcements, then he must move on. The Astros should get ahead of the market by trading Bregman, whose agent is Scott Boras, before he reaches free agency next winter. At least that way, the Astros could receive excellent prospect capital and turn their full focus to beefing up the farm system.

The worst thing Houston could do is let their All-Star third baseman walk away in free agency vis-a-vis Shohei Ohtani and the Angels last year. Los Angeles had the chance to trade Ohtani at last July's trade deadline and receive a substantial prospect package. Instead, the Angels kept the two-way superstar for a couple more months, then lost him in free agency, anyway.

Speaking of the Astros' farm system, it's regarded as the worst in baseball. After trading away Ryan Clifford and Drew Gilbert to the Mets in the Verlander deal, the Astros are the only team in baseball with no players in MLB Pipeline's top 100 prospects list. It's just another reason Crane should be motivated to support the team's core this season, as well as make every effort to secure contract extensions.

It is widely believed that the 33-year-old Altuve will end up re-signing with the Astros, one way or another, and remain in Houston until he retires. But that would hardly fix all their problems. Altuve has surprised us his entire career, but as a 34-year-old second baseman, his prime could very well be in the rearview mirror. FanGraphs’ ZiPS mechanism predicts Altuve will enter a "gentle decline" in 2024, with his OPS+ dropping 25 points and his isolated power dipping to .190. Still, he's a three-time batting champion, a former MVP and a two-time World Series winner. So let’s give Altuve the benefit of the doubt.

It’s just hard to extend that same courtesy to the rest of the Astros organization. There has been a ton of turnover in the front office all while Crane holds the puppet strings. New manager Joe Espada has replaced Dusty Baker, and as a first-time skipper, some degree of a learning curve is expected. Sure, the Astros’ latest ALCS appearance could give the impression that they’re good enough to run it back. But lift the curtain and there are more reasons for apprehension. Remember all that nail-biting at the end of September, when they just barely won the division? The ‘Stros are coming off their worst regular-season winning percentage for a full season (.556) since 2016. They were one win away from the World Series, but they were also two losses from missing the playoffs.

It’s not all doom and gloom in Space City, of course. While the big four (Alvarez, Altuve, Bregman, and Tucker) are batting in the same lineup, these are still the mighty, always-threatening Astros we’re talking about. They’re still the favorites to win the AL West. They’re still led by a solid and proven rotation. They still, somehow, seem to find enough answers to make a title run. It’s just that the many questions surrounding this club are becoming more pronounced.

The Astros have enormous decisions looming, all of which revolve around their future and what they want their core to look like. If the championship window closing won't get Crane to spend, what would prompt a billionaire to open his wallet? For fans of the Astros, it's the ultimate question. If Crane lets this window close, it could be a long time before we learn the answer.

Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.