Carlos Correa

Pick 'em: Six of eight MLB award races are one-on-one battles

Published Sep. 30, 2015 3:47 p.m. ET

Ken Rosenthal

Maybe I’m falling victim to recency bias, or maybe I’m just losing my memory as I get older. But I honestly cannot remember this many award races being this close with only a handful of games left in the regular season.

The Washington Nationals’ Bryce Harper is National League MVP, the Chicago Cubs’ Kris Bryant is NL Rookie of the Year. The other six major races to be decided by members of the Baseball Writers Association of America feature compelling head-to-head matchups, many of which remain too close to call.

I will say this up front, though I know some of you will pay no attention. There is no right or wrong in these arguments. Legitimate cases can be made for every candidate I will mention. Part of baseball’s magic is that beauty is in the eye of beholder.

I am voting for two awards this year, but will not reveal which ones until after they are announced. My choices do not mean that I hate your favorite team or your player. They simply reflect my opinion right now -- and I reserve my right to change that opinion when the ballots are due, after the end of the regular season and before the start of the playoffs.

Here goes. All stats entering Thursday’s play.

AL MVP: JOSH DONALDSON (BLUE JAYS) VS. MIKE TROUT (ANGELS)

At the start of September, I thought Donaldson was a near-lock.

Trout had a .689 OPS in August. The Angels went 10-19 in August. Donaldson, meanwhile, had his best month for a Blue Jays team that had seized control of the AL East after acquiring Troy Tulowitzki, David Price and Co.

Well, the gap narrowed as Trout and the Angels rebounded in September.

For the season, Trout has the higher OPS-plus, but Donaldson rates as a better defender at his position. Donaldson leads in RBI, 123 to 89, but that is mostly due to opportunity -- Trout leads the majors in OPS with runners in scoring position but has 49 fewer plate appearances in those situations.

So, which is the proper choice? Let’s see what Trout does in his final few games. If he goes nuts and helps the Angels secure the wild card -- or even better, the AL West title -- he could make a strong case even stronger.

Leaning toward: Donaldson

NL CY YOUNG: JAKE ARRIETA (CUBS) VS. ZACK GREINKE (DODGERS)

The debate boils down to best season vs. best second half. Many of the full-season measures (ERA, ERA-plus, opponents’ OPS, WHIP, strikeout-to-walk ratio) favor Greinke. Some (innings, FIP) favor Arrieta. But in almost every category, the difference is negligible.

Quality of opponents? True, nine of Arrieta’s 32 starts were against the Cardinals and Pirates, the two top teams in the NL. But 12 of Greinke’s 31 starts came within the NL West, where the Rockies, D-backs and Giants are three of the four-highest scoring clubs in the NL, and the Padres are 10th. The combined overall OPS of Greinke’s opponents is .729, according to STATS LLC. The combined OPS of Arrieta’s is .716.

If the award were for most valuable pitcher, Arrieta’s 0.80 ERA since the All-Star break might prove decisive. But the award is for best pitcher, and I interpret that to mean best pitcher for the entire season.

Let’s not over-think this: Greinke’s 1.68 ERA would be the lowest over a full season since Greg Maddux in 1995.

Leaning toward: Greinke

AL CY YOUNG: DALLAS KEUCHEL (ASTROS) VS. DAVID PRICE (BLUE JAYS)

This is just as crazy close as the NL race. Price has the slightly better ERA, Keuchel the slightly better ERA-plus. The difference in a number of other categories is just as narrow, but Keuchel rates a significant edge in opponents’ OPS -- and that edge is even more impressive when you consider that the combined overall OPS of his opponents is higher than Price’s.

What to make of Keuchel’s 1.46 ERA at home and 3.82 ERA on the road? Not much. According to park factor, which compares the rate of stats at home to the rate of stats on the road, Minute Maid ranks 14th in runs. It’s slightly pitcher-friendly but far from the AT&T of the AL. Keuchel just happens to pitch well there.

Price’s candidacy bears some resemblance to Arrieta’s -- he has gathered strength, performing even better since getting traded from the Tigers (3.04 ERA) to the Blue Jays (2.21). Adding to the intrigue: Keuchel’s 3.78 ERA in September is his worst of any month.

Leaning toward: Keuchel

AL ROOKIE: CARLOS CORREA (ASTROS) VS. FRANCISCO LINDOR (INDIANS)

I said on our broadcast last Saturday that I was leaning toward Correa because of his greater power. I made those comments after Correa had hit two home runs to rally the Astros against the Rangers in a practically must-win game.

I might have spoken too soon.

Power might be Correa’s only edge over Lindor, and it’s marginal; yes, Correa has 21 homers to Lindor’s 12, but Correa’s slugging percentage is only eight points higher in approximately the same number of plate appearances.

Lindor’s on-base percentage is 17 points higher than Correa’s; only two AL players, Xander Bogaerts and Jose Altuve, have more hits than Lindor since his call-up on June 14. Lindor’s defense, meanwhile, is far superior to Correa’s, according to the metrics. I don’t necessarily trust defensive numbers over a sample of fewer than 100 games, but when the gap is this large . . .

Leaning toward: Lindor

AL MANAGER: JEFF BANISTER (RANGERS) VS. A.J. HINCH (ASTROS)

Manager of the Year votes are the most subjective; no one truly knows a manager’s impact, even inside his own clubhouse. Virtually every manager’s in-game strategy is hotly debated. It’s impossible to quantify a manager’s motivational skills.

Well, you’ve got to start somewhere.

The Yankees’ Joe Girardi, Blue Jays’ John Gibbons, Twins’ Paul Molitor and Royals’ Ned Yost all warrant consideration -- especially Molitor, who has performed a near-miracle with the Twins, and Girardi, who continues to squeeze the most out of his clubs. But this race is mostly between the two first-year managers in the AL West, and Banister’s Rangers likely will finish ahead of Hinch’s Astros.

Hinch succeeded in changing the Astros’ culture -- no small task. But the Rangers lost Yu Darvish to Tommy John surgery in spring training, then Derek Holland for more than four months. They had questions up and down their roster, then had to rebuild their bullpen and catching corps on the fly.

The additions of Cole Hamels, Jake Diekman and Sam Dyson helped, but Banister was a steady hand throughout -- a manager who combined, in the view of one Rangers official, Buck Showalter’s organizational skills and Ron Washington’s interpersonal skills.

Leaning toward: Banister

NL MANAGER: JOE MADDON (CUBS) VS. MIKE MATHENY (CARDINALS)

Again, it’s not just a two-horse race; the Mets’ Terry Collins and Pirates’ Clint Hurdle also will get support. Heck, I’m starting to view Hurdle the way I view the Giants’ Bruce Bochy, a manager who could win the award practically every year.

Maddon and Matheny, though, are the most compelling candidates -- Maddon for leading the young Cubs to the postseason ahead of schedule, Matheny for leading the injury-battered Cardinals to the best record in the majors.

Too often this award is given to managers whose teams exceed expectations -- expectations assigned by writers who later vote. It’s sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy in reverse: The best manager comes from the team that proves us the most wrong.

Well, the Cardinals almost always play with massive expectations. This season, they went long stretches without Adam Wainwright, Matt Adams, Matt Holliday, etc., etc. And they still kicked everyone’s tail, playing an impeccable brand of ball.

Leaning toward: Matheny