Major League Baseball

Ranking MLB's best 26-and-under pitchers

Updated Mar. 29, 2023 11:44 p.m. ET

Earlier we went through the top-26 position players under 26, but baseball is a game of two halves, kinda. You know what I mean. Anyway, let’s close out our comprehensive series on young MLB talent and rank some arms!

But first, here are some honorable mentions: Andre Pallante, Camilo Doval, Jaime Barria, Reid Detmers, Brusdar Graterol and Bryan Abreu.

*2023 age-season in parentheses

Very Good Relievers (and a guy who might be one eventually)

26: Hunter Brown, Astros (24)
25: Alexis Díaz, Reds (26)
24: Andres Muñoz, Mariners (24)
23: Jhoan Duran, Twins (25)

Brown debuted last September and wowed for the Astros, allowing just 2 runs in seven outings split between the rotation and the bullpen. Though his command improved in the minor leagues in 2022, there's still some relief risk with Brown, who, thanks to a bat-missing, high-90s four-seamer, will provide value even if walks eventually push him to the pen.

Díaz was one the few bright spots for an insultingly bad Reds team last year, compiling a 1.84 ERA in 63 2/3 innings. Edwin's little brother doesn't quite have the elite fastball velocity that Muñoz and Duran have, but he makes up for it with top-of-the charts spin.

Muñoz struck out almost 40% of hitters last season for the Mariners thanks in large part to his gyro slider that he threw a whopping 64.6% of the time. Because even though Muñoz’s 100 mph heat is more visually appealing than the tightly-wound, not nasty looking enough to be on Pitching Ninja breaker, his slider graded out as one of the most valuable pitches in baseball last year and will be the driving force behind the 24-year-old righty’s sustained brilliance.

Nobody on planet earth or elsewhere throws harder than Duran, who averaged 101 mph on his fastball last year. The Twins closer's magical split finger is a viral clip machine, but it's the heater-curveball combo that propelled the now-25-year-old to a magical 2022 in Minnesota. Relievers are famously volatile, but if Duran can repeat what he did last year, he'll shoot up this list and nestle in right next to Emmanuel Clase.

High Ceiling Babies With Things To Work On

22: Roansy Contreras, Pirates (23)

Pittsburgh limited Contreras’ innings in his first full MLB season, optioning the hard-throwing righty to Triple-A halfway through the year despite solid numbers. Contreras already boasts one of MLB’s best sliders and figures to spend all of ‘23 in the Pirates rotation, where he’ll focus on coaxing more in-zone whiffs from his 96 mph heater. Still only 23, Contreras has time to solve that riddle, which would give him the floor of a legit No. 3 starter.

21: Edward Cabrera, Marlins (25)

It's pretty simple: if Cabrera can cut down the free passes and stay healthy, he has a shot to be an All-Star. The imposing right-hander has had at least one arm issue every year of his pro career, including a biceps problem that truncated an otherwise magnificent 2022 sophomore season during which Cabrera racked up strikeouts and avoided hard contact. His money pitch is a tumble-off-the-table change-up that he uses a ton (Ian Anderson and Jeffrey Springs were the only starters who threw a higher percentage of cambios). Cabrera walked just 18 fewer batters in 71 2/3 innings than rotation mate and NL Cy Young Sandy Alcantara walked in 228 2/3. If he finds the zone ... watch out.

Yet-To-Debut Top Pitching Prospects

20: Brandon Pfaadt, Diamondbacks (24)
19: Andrew Painter, Phillies (20)
18: Eury Pérez, Marlins (20)
17: Grayson Rodriguez, Orioles (23)

Pfaadt (literally pronounced "FOUGHT"), a sturdy D-Backs farmhand likely to debut this season, led the minors in punchouts last year with a ridiculous 218 Ks in 167 innings. Arizona’s affiliates, particularly Triple-A Reno, are notoriously hitter-friendly, which makes Pfaadt’s 61 2/3 innings of 2.63 ball in Reno even more impressive.

Painter was a major early spring training story, impressing Phillies brass enough to contend for a spot in the Opening Day rotation even though he doesn't turn 20 for another few weeks. Unfortunately, an elbow issue has delayed his arrival in Philly for an undetermined amount of time (he has a small tear in his UCL, that for now does not necessitate Tommy John surgery), which bumps him behind Pérez and Rodriguez for us for now. But don't get it twisted: Painter is still a humongous talent with poise beyond his years and a top-notch array of pitches.

Pérez is a 6-foot-9 elm tree in the Marlins system who struck out 106 to just 25 walks in 75 Double-A innings as a 19-year-old. Almost a full year younger than Paul Skenes, the top pitching prospect in this year's draft, Pérez would be a college sophomore right now. There's still a lot that could go wrong here, but the Marlins have a great track record of pitching development and Pérez is such an athletic unicorn that we're banking on him being a real force over the next five years.

The Orioles are sending Rodriguez to Triple-A to start the season; a controversial decision among O’s fans who have been waiting years to finally see G-Rod in Camden Yards. Whenever the tall gunslinger arrives in Baltimore (if it’s after May 1st, something went wrong), expect a deep arsenal of plus pitches from a bulldog competitor. His raw stuff was a bit down a year ago, especially after an oblique injury sidelined him for a few months, but looked back in camp even if his spring numbers were poor. At worst, he’s a mid-rotation guy. At best, he’s the ace of a rising Orioles franchise.

High-Floor Workhorse Righties

16: Luis Garcia, Astros (26)
15: Logan Gilbert, Mariners (26)
14: Brady Singer, Royals (26)

MLB’s new rules put the kibosh on Garcia’s memorable "Rock The Baby" pitching motion, but the braided Houston hurler showed how little the change should impact him with a stellar showing for Team Venezuela in the WBC. A lack of four-seam velocity will always cap Garcia’s strikeout numbers, but the 26-year-old’s deep five-pitch mix, durable frame and big-game experience bump him up our list despite a pedestrian 3.72 ERA last year.

Gilbert’s outstanding four-seam fastball — it’s only 96, but he has elite extension on it, MJ's dunk in Space Jam-style — and above average command give him a high floor. But a lack of dastardly secondary pitches limits his overall ceiling. Unless the Mariners can find a change-of-pace bat-misser for him, Gilbert will always be susceptible to hard contact. Even if that never happens, Gilbert is still a valuable innings-eater every other MLB club would love to have.

Singer lowered his arm slot during spring training last season, which reinvigorated the playability of his sinker and propelled a breakout campaign for the Royals starter. The 26-year-old doesn’t have disgusting raw stuff, but his sinker limits hard contact in the air, which, alongside Singer’s disdain for walks, should give him a long career as a mid-rotation stalwart.

Potentially Electric Lefties

13: Nick Lodolo, Reds (25)
12: Jesús Luzardo, Marlins (25)
11: Patrick Sandoval, Angels (26)

Lodolo does not have your grandfather's sinker, as his sink-piece is a difference-maker that garners tons of swing and miss in the strike zone. Even though he operates with below-average velocity, Lodolo showed as a rookie last year that he has enough spin, extension and deception to thrive in the bigs. His curveball already grades out as one of the league's best, and if you buy into his dominant September (2.48 ERA with 49 strikeouts in 36 1/3 innings), then you're already mad that Lodolo isn't higher on this list.

Luzardo is a great reminder that pitching development isn't linear. Once considered one of the game's top pitching prospects, Luzardo struggled to solidify himself as a starter first in Oakland and then in Miami after a 2021 deadline trade to the Marlins. He missed two months last season with a forearm strain, but looked like a whole new man once he came back in August, posting a 3.03 ERA in his final 12 starts with over a K a frame while limiting the walks that had been such a bugaboo in the past. Luzardo has always thrown gasoline, but often struggled to put opposite-sided hitters away. So, it makes sense that a huge leap in the efficacy of his change-up was the magic sauce to his hot finish last year. Dunk on the hapless Marlins all you want, but the fish know pitching.

Sandoval's stuff is less sexy than the two preceding names on this list, but the 26-year-old Angels starter looks like the epitome of a dependable mid-rotation arm, with potential for more if he can limit the walks or add velocity. The California-born Sandoval absolutely carved for Team Mexico during the WBC, holding the vaunted USA and Japan lineups to just one combined run across a pair of appearances. It's a bit of a kitchen-sink approach — four-seamers up, sinkers and change-ups armside, sliders glove-side with the occasional show-me curve — but Sandoval had a 2.91 ERA last year in 148 2/3 innings, a performance we're buying.

Already Electric Righties

10: George Kirby, Mariners (25)
9: Hunter Greene, Reds (23)

Kirby is bizarrely similar to his rotation mate at No. 15 in that he has an elite fastball, no obvious plus-plus secondary and doesn't walk anybody. But two key distinctions motivated us to pump Kirby above Gilbert and into this tier.

Kirby has even better command than Gilbert. Only seven starters had a better walk rate last year, including Justin Verlander, Aaron Nola, Kevin Gausman and Max Scherzer. Kirby's impeccable control dates back to his college days when he walked just six guys in 88 1/3 innings his junior draft year.
Go watch Kirby's postseason start against the Astros in Game 3 of the ALDS: seven innings, no runs, no walks, five punch-outs against the eventual World Series champs. Greene's 2022 rookie campaign might have been the most roundabout journey to a league-average 100 ERA+ we've ever seen. He debuted in April throwing harder than basically any other starting pitcher in baseball history while simultaneously walking guys and giving up bombs at an alarming rate. He alternated between glimpses of mastery and bouts of catastrophe before a September hot stretch brought his full-season ERA below 4.50.

Greene's 2022 rookie campaign might have been the most roundabout journey to a league-average 100 ERA+ we've ever seen. He debuted in April throwing harder than basically any other starting pitcher in baseball history while simultaneously walking guys and giving up bombs at an alarming rate. He alternated between glimpses of mastery and bouts of catastrophe before a September hot stretch brought his full-season ERA below 4.50.

But Greene is only going to get better from here. We just saw a 22-year-old kid trying to figure out pitching in real time, and he still performed like a league-average starter. There are certainly concerns that the utility of his four-seamer causes the pitch to play down despite the eye-popping velocity, it's just hard to bet against a guy with this much talent, this much athleticism and this much drive.

The Best Closer In The World

8: Emmanuel Clase, Guardians (25)

With Edwin Díaz's unfortunate year-ending knee injury, Clase becomes the undisputed best reliever in the world. While the 25-year-old Guardians flamethrower might not rack up the strikeouts typical of an all-world ninth inning guy, his 100 mph cutter is so impossible for hitters to square up that it doesn't matter. Clase had a 40-game stretch last season from late April to early August during which he allowed just two earned runs in 39 2/3 innings. This man is a lumber-snapping, soul-snatching, borderline automatic save machine who will continue to terrorize opposing AL Central hitters for the next half decade if he keeps the velocity.

Not Quite The Top

7: Triston McKenzie, Guardians (25)
6: Logan Webb, Giants (26)

McKenzie was spectacular beyond all expectations a year ago — if his ERA had been 3.96 instead of 2.96, his season would have been a success just because of the 191 1/3 innings he logged. After years of questions about whether the slender-framed righty could shoulder a starters workload or was destined for the pen, McKenzie straight-up shoved across 30 starts. There's room for improvement here — McKenzie is prone to the more-than-occasional moonshot — and he's already out for the first two months of the season with a muscle strain, but the 25-year-old hurler is a worthy No. 2 in Cleveland's rotation behind Shane Bieber.

We have a touch more faith in Webb just because he's been the same level of good as McKenzie, but for an additional season. The Jesse Plemons lookalike followed up his 2021 breakout with an even better 2022, tossing 192 1/3 innings of 2.90 ERA ball. In a middle finger to typical modern pitching development, Webb carves with 26th percentile fastball velo, relying instead on a special sinker-change-slider trio to rack up outs. Sure, strikeouts are king, but Webb is a revolutionary.

Almost The Top

5: Cristian Javier, Astros (26)
4: Julio Urías, Dodgers (26)
3: Shane McClanahan, Rays (26)
2: Spencer Strider, Braves (24)

There's a reason the Astros hardly tried to retain reigning AL Cy Young Justin Verlander and his name is Cristian Javier. Thanks to one of the game's most untouchable four-seam fastballs, the 26-year-old hurler took a massive step forward in 2022, posting a 2.54 ERA in 148.2 innings with a 33.2 % strikeout rate. He finished up that spectacular season by torching the Phillies in the World Series as part of Houston's historic no-hitter. The defending champion Astros rewarded the young right-hander with a five-year, $64 million deal; a contract that could look like an absolute heist for Houston if Javier runs repeats his brilliant ‘22 season. He comes in at No. 5 because (1) he walked too many guys, and (2) his secondary stuff gets squared up more than you'd like.

Urías finished third in the NL Cy Young last year, but comes in fourth on our list because we're a bit wary of how few swings and misses the 26-year-old lefty gets. Last year was Urías' third straight in which he stayed mostly healthy and had an ERA+ above 130. And even though we think his amazing 194 ERA+ last year was a bit of an aberration (Dodgers run prevention magic and some luck), the wrong-hander is set to rake in a hefty free-agent deal when he hits the market this winter. But yeah ... he's a great No. 2 starter who doesn't quite have the stuff to be a postseason staff-leading, no-doubt ace.

If we'd made this list at the All-Star break last year, McClanahan would be No. 1 with little debate. The fireballing left-hander had a 1.71 first-half ERA with a stupid good 12 K/9 that earned him the honor of starting the Midsummer Classic. Unfortunately, the second half was a bit more pedestrian because even though McClanahan held his trademark heat, the strikeouts waned and the walks jumped. He's still one of the best 15 pitchers in the world, but he slides to No. 3 on our list until he proves he can maintain the brilliance for a whole season.

Just one starting pitcher in baseball history (2019 Gerrit Cole) struck out batters at a higher rate than Strider did in his rookie season last year, which earned him a nice extension from the Braves. The moneymaker is a cry-to-momma four-seamer with consistent upper 90s velocity and more ride than a fighter jet. Strider peppers that pitch at the top of and above the zone with great effect. Still just 24 years old, Strider has at least one Cy Young in his future if he can stay the course.

Maybe this is recency bias considering the last glimpse we had of him in ‘22 was a diminished version of the mustachioed baseball magician, but the only thing keeping Strider from the No. 1 spot is that his shaky October performance showed that he cannot, at least not at this point in his career, dominate without his velocity. If we needed a pitcher on this list to win us a single game, we'd go with Strider, but over the course of a season, or in this case, multiple seasons, we're leaning elsewhere until we see another full year of elite Strider.

The Top

1: Alek Manoah, Blue Jays (25)

You could rank this top five in any order and we wouldn't yell at you. And while this list has been heavy on analytical-leaning phrases like whiff rate, pitch shape and ERA+, we're putting Manoah at No. 1 because ... dude is a hoss.

Sure, he's had a league-average K rate and, sure, he doesn't miss a lot of bats, but Manoah finished third in the AL Cy Young last year regardless because, again ... dude is a hoss. Built like a right-handed CC Sabathia, with enough self-confidence to win Love Island Australia and The Bachelorette simultaneously, this 25-year-old doesn't just eat innings, he sucks them up like an industrial hoover.

"Hard contact? Sorry, don't know him. Not familiar." — Alek Manoah

Given when he got drafted in relation to the pandemic, Manoah threw only 35 minor-league innings before his May 2021 big-league debut, but he has a 2.60 ERA in 51 career starts anyway because ... dude is a hoss. Who needs developmental slow-roasting when you're Alek Freakin' Manoah, baby.

The future is impossible to predict — that's why our life savings are sewn into the mattress and not invested in stocks — but there's no young arm that we'd rather ride or die with right now than Manoah.

OK ... Strider is pretty damn good.

Jake Mintz, the louder half of @CespedesBBQ is a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He played college baseball, poorly at first, then very well, very briefly. Jake lives in New York City where he coaches Little League and rides his bike, sometimes at the same time. Follow him on Twitter at @Jake_Mintz.

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