National Basketball Association

Bet on Luka and the Mavericks, not the Timberwolves, to win the West

Updated May. 7, 2024 8:50 a.m. ET

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Jason McIntyre

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

NBA fans and myself were expecting more of a heavyweight battle between the defending champion Denver Nuggets and the up-and-coming Minnesota Timberwolves. But now that Anthony Edwards & Co. are up 2-0, that series might be a wrap.

If you still like the Nuggets to come back, you can get them now at 16-1 to win the title. That said, I'm turning my attention to another team in the Western Conference who I believe is worth sprinkling a few bucks on.

To me, the betting value coming out of the West lies in the team people are talking about the least: the Dallas Mavericks.

I like Oklahoma City, but we can’t read too much into the Thunder's sweep of the Pelicans, since New Orleans didn’t have its best player in Zion Williamson. 

We also shouldn't read too much into how OKC went 3-1 against Dallas during the regular season, since Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving missed the final game between the two teams, and Doncic missed the meeting before that. 

Also, the Mavs smoked the Thunder by 30 in February.

From a matchup perspective, the Mavs are likely to hide their center (rookie Dereck Lively or Daniel Gafford) on Josh Giddey. By the way, Giddey is the weakest shooter OKC has (though he was 9-for-18 from deep against the Pelicans).

Dallas matches up great with OKC across the board, with Derrick Jones and Josh Green drawing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Mavs defense is one of the most underplayed stories of the last two months. Just ask Paul George (41/36 shooting and just 19.5 PPG) and James Harden (44/38 shooting and 21.2 PPG) about it. 

George’s numbers cratered from the regular season. And in the final two games when it mattered most, Harden was 7-of-28 shooting and 1-for-13 on 3-pointers.

Working against the Mavs is the fact they'll be without the versatile Maxi Kleber. However, he might return for the conference finals.

As you can see, I like the Mavs to take care of the Thunder, so let's look ahead to the Western Conference finals.

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Dallas is well-equipped to face the Wolves if they get past Denver (which is looking more and more likely). The Mavs have the long and athletic Jones, who is perhaps the best option to slow down the explosive Edwards. Minnesota has nobody to slow Irving, and with Dallas likely playing five-out on offense, the Wolves will have to decide what to do with Rudy Gobert.

I don't know if people remember this, but the last time Gobert faced the Mavs, he was in Utah in 2022, and he was played off the court. Somehow, he went three games without a blocked shot. The Jazz traded him after that series.

The flexibility that Dallas has makes the Mavs the most dangerous team in the West. They can play big or small, and they have the player who tilts the defense more than anyone left in Doncic.

Irving has had stellar play (51% FG, 44% 3FG, and 26.5 PPG). If he — who, at 32, is the oldest player on the court between OKC and Dallas — can keep that up, the Mavs should be able to take down the Wolves or Nuggets after OKC.

Which is why I am grabbing them right now at +380 to win the West.

PICK: Dallas Mavericks (+380) to win the Western Conference

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. Follow him @jasonrmcintyre.

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National Basketball Association

Dallas Mavericks

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Jason McIntyre