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Categorizing Team USA basketball's minicamp invites
Last week, the masterminds behind USA Basketball officially invited 34 NBA players to a three-day minicamp in Las Vegas, a celebratory affair to be held Tuesday through Thursday that will let Jerry Colangelo, Mike Krzyzewski and the rest of Team USA's staff know who's officially committed to their sky-scraping juggernaut.
Since only 12 of these players can make it to Brazil in 2016, here's a tiered breakdown of the entire pool, a peak at where everybody currently stands on their quest to represent Team USA in next summer's Olympic Games.
Tier 8: Noooooope
PG Michael Carter-Williams, SF Tobias Harris, PF Mason Plumlee, SF Chandler Parsons, SG Victor Oladipo, SG Rudy Gay, SG DeMar DeRozan, PF Kenneth Faried
This bottom tier is also the largest. To be frank, nobody here is good enough. Colangelo is a forward-thinking man, but inviting Carter-Williams (a point guard guard who can't shoot) over half a dozen other lead ballhandlers is a head-scratcher. Plumlee's inclusion makes no basketball sense. Gay, Faried and DeRozan have no chance to make the Olympic team, but they played in the FIBA World Cup when more glamorous names refused to; extending an invite feels more like an appreciative gesture than anything else. Harris and Oladipo are wise long-term investments but nothing more at the moment.
Tier 7: Better luck in 2020
C Andre Drummond, SF Harrison Barnes, SG Bradley Beal
It's conceivable that Drummond, Barnes and Beal will be on max contracts in two years, though Barnes is admittedly a long shot while Drummond and Beal are all but certain. It's a no-brainer to keep them close, even though none has a chance to make the final team. In 2020, though? Sure. (For the record, Derrick Favors would be in this tier if Team USA had invited him.)
Tier 6: "It's not you, it's me"
PG John Wall, PG Mike Conley, SF Gordon Hayward, C DeAndre Jordan
These guys are obviously very good at basketball. Three have max contracts, and Conley will get his when he becomes a free agent next summer. But their skill sets duplicate those held by superior players. If Team USA sent a B team to the Olympics, these four would be on it — and probably would come home with a silver medal.
Tier 5: This could get awkward
SF Carmelo Anthony, PF LaMarcus Aldridge, PF Kevin Love
Here's where Team USA's political selection process rears its ugly head. Sadly, there's no room for Anthony on this roster. He isn't as good as the other players in this group, nor the 16 names we've yet to cover, but some of the best basketball of his career took place in Olympic play, and it's hard to think the 31-year-old will travel to Las Vegas if he doesn't think he'll pass the final cut next summer.
Aldridge has a salty history with Team USA and has yet to wear the jersey. Love's three-point shot, rebounding ability and fruitful relationship with this program could vault him up the list, but he needs to be healthy and less culpable on defense. He's still a very good player, and it's interesting to think about how/whether LeBron James will influence Love's inclusion.
Tier 4: 3-and-D Hunger Games
SG Klay Thompson, SF Kawhi Leonard, SF Jimmy Butler, SF Draymond Green, SF Paul George
Every team needs three-point shooting and impenetrable perimeter defense. All five of these players offer that, in varying degrees. Leonard feels like he should be a lock. Coach K can throw him on the other team's best player and virtually guarantee an emotional meltdown by the third quarter. Thompson's shooting is lethal for someone his size, and Green is the type of pugnacious competitor who's desired by every basketball team in the known universe.
Butler and George aren't brilliant spot-up shooters, but their two-way versatility makes them intriguing names to throw in the hat. (Considering what happened last summer, George's standing with Team USA is more fascinating than anyone's.) It's hard to see more than two making it from this group — which is a shame — but Team USA can't go wrong with whomever it chooses.
Tier 3: The point guard group of death
PG Russell Westbrook, PG Chris Paul, PG Kyrie Irving
Hot-take alert: Chris Paul might not make Team USA's final roster. He turns 31 next May and will be fresh off his 11th regular season, bracing for what could very well be the deepest playoff run (i.e. longest year) of his career. There's a slight chance Paul drops behind Stephen Curry, Westbrook and Irving on Team USA's bulky point guard depth chart.
None of those guys commands offensive sets like Paul, and a safe argument can be made that he belongs. But Irving and Westbrook are at the peak of their powers. One is a sledgehammer and the other glides through interior defenders like a jelly fish.
Paul isn't chopped liver, and the leadership qualities he brings to the table are unquantifiable — Jason Kidd was that dude in 2008. But his margin for error is shrinking by the day, while the other guys in this group (plus Curry) are working with a softer cushion.
Team USA had three point guards on its 2014 FIBA squad: Derrick Rose, Irving and Curry. It had three point guards in 2012, too: Paul, Deron Williams and Westbrook. It's hard to believe it'll take any more to Rio, especially if it wants to utilize versatile, defensive-minded lineups. And James Harden and LeBron can function as primary ballhandlers, too.
Tier 2: Can you run? Congratulations!
SF Kevin Durant, PF Blake Griffin, C Dwight Howard, C DeMarcus Cousins
Durant would be the second name in Tier 1 if not for the uncertainty surrounding his foot. There's much less doubt about Griffin, but he injured himself leading up to the London Games three years ago and has no experience on the international stage.
There's been some question in the past about Team USA's center position, but if Howard is healthy there's no better rim-protector in this field — even on the wrong side of 30 — and Cousins is just, well, he's two points every time you throw him the ball down low.
Tier 1: The solid locks
SF LeBron James, PF Anthony Davis, SG James Harden, PG Stephen Curry
However you'd like to rank them, these are four of the five best players in the entire world. Three played on Team USA's FIBA World Cup squad in 2014 and the other is James. They aren't getting cut.
My way-too-early prediction on who makes it:
Guards: Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, Kyrie Irving, James Harden
Wings: LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson
Bigs: Dwight Howard, DeMarcus Cousins, Blake Griffin, Anthony Davis
