Houston Rockets: 5 adjustments for Game 3 vs. the San Antonio Spurs
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The Houston Rockets return to the Toyota Center with home-court advantage in tow. Here are five adjustments they can make before Game 3 to keep it.
On May 1, the Houston Rockets shocked the basketball world.
They didn't just beat the San Antonio Spurs, they absolutely ran them out of the gym. Houston's 126-99 Game 1 victory made the Spurs look ill-prepared to handle the offense built around the incomparable James Harden.
But, as is almost always the case, Gregg Popovich's group had an immediate and resounding response. Their 121-96 Game 2 win almost matched Houston's margin of victory from the previous matchup, and made it clear we had a series on our hands.
Regardless, the Rockets should return to the Toyota Center on Friday night with a lot of confidence. They own home-court advantage, and know full well they can hang with the big, bad Spurs.
Plus, even considering how poorly they played in Game 2, through three quarters of the contest they were only down five. It was there for the taking, they just couldn't make the final push.
Overall, though it may feel like Houston's been the better team thus far, the score of the series heading into Game 3 is 222-220, Rockets. They have to get better if they hope to keep (and extend) their precarious lead.
Luckily, we're here to help. Here are five adjustments D'Antoni and the Rockets can make to keep home court and take a 2-1 lead in the series.
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1. Get James Harden going
I know, I know. Easier said than done.
After all, he's facing a Popovich-coached team, as well as the best perimeter defender the league has to offer in Kawhi Leonard. It's also been reported that Harden is playing through a left hip ailment, which certainly doesn't help matters.
Still, D'Antoni has to find a way to get his superstar shooting guard going. Against the Spurs, Harden's shooting at a miserable 9-for-30 clip overall, including 5-for-17 from three.
Furthermore, he's attempted merely 11 free throws in both games combined, which is very un-Harden-like. In their previous series against the Oklahoma City Thunder, he matched (or topped) that total in four of the five outings.
Yes, San Antonio is excellent at defending without fouling (seventh in the NBA in opponent free throw attempt rate), but during their four regular season matchups, Harden still averaged nine shots from the foul line per contest against them.
He can get to the line against anyone, he just needs to be put in better situations and be a touch more aggressive looking for calls. (People may hate that about his skill set, but I find it astounding; his ability to get calls is special.)
Moreover, though his three-point shooting has been poor against San Antonio, he's not getting great looks, either. Through two games, Harden has shot one wide open three in 65 minutes of action (per NBA.com). For a guy that converted a healthy 39.0 percent on such looks during the regular season, they need to find him more of those opportunities.
One way to do so could be by playing him off the ball a bit more, and letting Patrick Beverly, Eric Gordon or Lou Williams take turns distributing.
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2. Shoot more threes
May seem overly-simplified, but sometimes it's best not to overthink things. The Rockets are a better team when they shoot more threes, so they should do just that.
In Game 1, Houston heaved 50 shots from beyond the arc. They made 22 of them and won by 27. In the following matchup, they only attempted 34, converted on 11 and lost by 25. Clearly, science is telling us they should stick to their bombs-away strategy. And science is never wrong.
During the regular season, the Rockets attempted at least 50 three-pointers 11 times, and won eight of those games. In outings in which they attempted fewer than 35 threes, they had a 10-6 record. Still okay, but a distinct drop-off from their 72.7 win percentage in games of the former variety.
Their record improves as they shoot more threes because they don't exactly have a roster with too many pure three-point snipers. As a team in 2016-17, Houston was an all-too-average 35.7 percent from beyond the arc, which placed them 15th in the NBA. However, they attempted 3,306 threes on the year — the league's highest total by 526 — and that helped them achieve the second-best offensive rating of the season, behind only the Golden State Warriors.
More opportunities help the Rockets settle the difference against the more accurate-shooting teams in the NBA. Though their ways may seem inefficient, they work.
The elephant in the room is that San Antonio allow the third-lowest frequency of three-point attempts in the league. But hey, that's a problem for offensive savant Mike D'Antoni to figure out (and one that he has already solved once before in this series.)
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3. Find a way to get back to the stripe
Shooting a crap-ton of threes is one way Houston achieved the league's second-best offensive rating in 2016-17. But another major proponent of their success was based on getting to the foul line, and often.
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The Rockets finished the regular season second in free throw attempt rate and first in free throw attempts per game. But although they're still the playoff leaders in nightly free throws taken, that clip has plummeted against San Antonio.
In the second round, Houston places fifth among the eight teams remaining in free throw attempts at 21.0 per contest. That's down from 33.6 in their opening series against the Thunder, and 26.5 in the regular season.
Shocker — not only do the Spurs run you off the three-point line, but they do so without fouling. Nonetheless, the Rockets still have the horses to get more calls.
Not only is that Harden's specialty, but midseason pickup Lou Williams is also one of the NBA's best in getting to the line. Among guards, Williams ranks 11th in free throw attempts per game. (The Beard is obviously first on that list.)
Look for Williams to be more aggressive in his stints off the bench tonight. Tony Parker is out for the series with the quad tear, meaning Patty Mills will probably be shifted into the starting lineup. That makes rookie Dejounte Murray San Antonio's backup point guard. And though he's talented, he's not ready for this stage yet.
Williams should be able to draw contact against him, and help the Rockets' offense from the foul stripe.
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4. Rockets must improve their rebounding
The Rockets are never going to be confused for a monstrously-gifted rebounding team. But to have a chance to keep home-court advantage Friday night, they need protect the glass similar to how they did in Game 1.
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In their first outing against the Spurs these playoffs, Houston actually out-rebounded their foe by four, giving up 11 offensive boards in the process. In Game 2, the Rockets lost the rebounding battle by 16, and gave up 16 offensive boards.
For an offense as good as the Spurs is — in a playoff showdown that yields fewer opportunities for each team — five extra possessions could be the difference between a win and a loss for the Rockets. So, they need to toughen up.
D'Antoni's team was a decent rebounding unit overall in the regular season (14th in rebound rate at 50.2 percent), but were rather abysmal on the defensive glass (21st in defensive rebound percentage at 75.8 percent). Not much has changed thus far in the postseason either, with both marks hovering around the same total.
But considering they showed the ability to improve in Game 1 against the Spurs, we know they have it in them. Now, it's about effort and execution, especially from Nene and Clint Capela, the team's two best rebounders.
It's possible that playing at home will give them the boost on the glass they were missing in Game 2.
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5. Houston can't let Kawhi have another career night
Hey, another adjustment that's far easier in theory than in practice!
It's boring (and totally obvious) to say: If the Rockets slow down their opponent's best player, they'll have a much better chance of winning. But at the very least, Houston should try not to give up another record-setting night to Kawhi Leonard if they want to keep home-court advantage.
In Game 2, Leonard became the first player since 1983-84 to score at least 34 points on 16 shot attempts or fewer, dish out eight assists and grab three steals in a playoff game.
Think about some of the legends who have played since then (LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Magic Johnson and Dwyane Wade, just to name a few) who were unable to do what the Spurs superstar wing did against the Rockets. Pretty absurd to consider.
So, yeah, maybe try to not let him do that again. Let him get his 25 points, but don't allow him to find his comfort areas so easily, and definitely don't let him start distributing like he's LeBron Lite. Leonard's never averaged more than 3.5 assists in a season; there's no way he should be averaging seven (to go with 27.5 points and 9.0 rebounds) in a series like he currently is against the Rockets.
If Houston can force Leonard to merely be great, as opposed to transcendent, their chances of taking Game 3 sky-rocket. (And I apologize for that awful, awful pun.)
