National Basketball Association

How to bet the NBA Finals between the Bucks and Suns

Updated Jul. 30, 2021 8:17 a.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The Phoenix Suns versus the Milwaukee Bucks is the most improbable NBA Finals since 2008, when the Los Angeles Lakers met the Boston Celtics.

L.A. opened that season +3000 to win the title, but then added Pau Gasol midseason. The Celtics were +1000 to win the championship, second in the East to young LeBron James’ Cleveland Cavaliers, who had just made the Finals. The Celtics won in six, beating the Lakers by 39 points in the clincher.

The 2021 Bucks opened this season with the second-best odds to win the title (+550), but those odds fell behind Brooklyn’s in the East after the Nets traded for James Harden. The Suns opened the season +4000, eighth in the West.

The problem with this series — and with the entire postseason, really — is injuries. Whether it’s Anthony Davis or Jamal Murray or Kawhi Leonard or Kyrie Irving or Trae Young, injuries have crippled this postseason, and now they threaten the Finals, with the world unsure whether Giannis Antetokounmpo will play in the opener after hyperextending his knee in Game 4 of the Eastern finals. The Bucks prevailed over the Hawks in Games 5 and 6 without him, but the Suns are an entirely different animal.

If Giannis isn’t able to play, there’s a very good chance this will be a sweep.

If Giannis is at 75% for the series, there’s a good chance this will be a sweep. Game 1 is Tuesday, exactly one week after Giannis went down with a painful-looking injury.

The path to victory for the Bucks without Giannis is virtually nonexistent. The Suns have the better backcourt, and they have the wings — Jae Crowder and Mikal Bridges — to contain Khris Middleton. On the inside, Deandre Ayton has already faced Davis and Nikola Jokic, so do you think he’s going to fear Brook Lopez? The Suns even have a deeper bench.

I’m not confident the Bucks get a game.

As critical as I’ve been of Mike Budenholzer, something clicked against the Hawks, and he finally realized he could play bully ball inside. The Bucks inexplicably scored only 44 points in the paint in Game 4 against the Hawks — a loss — jacking 39 3-pointers. In Game 5 without Giannis, they scored 44 points in the paint in the first half and rolled to victory.

Will that work against Ayton and the Suns? If it will, can Budenholzer consistently push the right buttons? After the Bucks' bully-ball success in Game 5, for instance, they went back outside in Game 6 on Saturday, attempting 45 3-pointers in the series finale. The bench made seven, including three by Jeff Teague, who was 1-for-5 from 3 in the first eight playoff games in which he appeared. The lead ballooned to 20, but Milwaukee had to hold on to win.

That’s not sustainable against a superior team such as Phoenix, which ranked fifth in the NBA this season in defending the 3-pointer. The Clippers, who led the NBA in 3-point shooting, mustered only 33.5% from deep in their series loss to the Suns.

As bleak as this sounds for the Bucks, consider this: The opposing starting guards the Suns have faced in the three rounds so far are Dennis Schroder and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Facundo Campazzo and Austin Rivers, and Reggie Jackson and Terance Mann. This is not to knock Phoenix’s run to the Finals, but it’s just reality: The Suns have benefited greatly from their opponents' injuries.

The Bucks have the best defensive guard Chris Paul will face in these playoffs, Jrue Holiday. That said, CP3 has won his past five head-to-head matchups against Holiday (though only one came in a Suns-Bucks contest) and has a 9.4-1.8 assist-to-turnover ratio in those matchups.

I will be looking to bet under props on Holiday and Paul.

Suns to win by more than 6 in Game 1 (-105)

The Suns won and covered against the Lakers, Nuggets and Clippers in each Game 1. There’s no reason to think they won’t do the same against the Bucks at home on Tuesday.

Over/Under 217: Under (-110)

I will be looking at the under, as both teams closed the conference finals with overs, and the public will gravitate that way. The teams have a combined six games of NBA Finals experience, with Crowder having played last year in the bubble for the Miami Heat against the Lakers. Nerves will definitely be a thing in this one. I’ve ridden individual 3-point-shooting overs in these playoffs but will hold off for Game 1.

Last round, with Trae Young hindered, the Bucks had the three best players on the floor in Middleton, Holiday and Lopez. In this series, if Giannis has to miss any time, the Suns will have the two best players on the floor in CP3 and Devin Booker. Lopez won’t be able to eat inside against Ayton.

Suns to sweep (+850)

Betting the Suns to sweep isn’t a fun bet, but it’s certainly in play.

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports gambling analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.