National Basketball Association

NBA odds: Surprise best bet for NBA Draft first overall pick

Updated Jun. 10, 2022 5:17 p.m. ET

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By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The Orlando Magic landed the first pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, and if you’re betting on whom the player will be, the one word you need to remember is length. 

And that leads me to Jabari Smith Jr. — my best bet for the No. 1 overall draft pick.

Let's discuss the why. Under general manager John Hammond, the Magic have prioritized length. In 2017, he surprised draft bettors by grabbing Jonathan Isaac from FSU, the 6-foot-10 power forward whose wingspan measured seven feet. Hammond picked Issac ahead of much more accomplished college talents like Lauri Markkanen, Donovan Mitchell (13) and Bam Adebayo (14). 

The book is still out on Issac as injuries have derailed Isaac’s career. He's missed the last two seasons and has appeared in just 136 games in a Magic uniform. Still, most would consider passing on Mitchell and Adebayo as big misses.

A year later, the Magic drafted another "long player" sixth overall in center Mo Bamba out of Texas. This time again whiffing badly on Collin Sexton and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who were selected eighth and ninth, respectively. 

What happened the following year? You guessed it. The trend continued. 

In 2019, Orlando selected Chuma Okeke from Auburn. He was coming off an injury but fit the long wing profile the Magic like to lock in on. In that draft, Brandon Clarke went 21st. NBA fans will recognize Clarke's name as a major impact player during the Grizzlies' playoff run this year. Grant Williams — also known as Boston's Game 7 hero — went 22nd.

The Magic haven’t won a playoff series since 2010. Are they close? Probably not, which is why I’d rule out Paolo Banchero, the most NBA-ready player in the draft. The Magic have invested in Wendell Carter at the center spot, and Mo Bamba has possibly one more year to prove himself. So, the pick probably won’t be Chet Holmgren.

This leads me to my wager. Jabari Smith Jr. of Auburn is the type of player the Magic are looking for. He's a good shooting, floor-spacing, 6-foot-10 big with a 7-foot-1 wingspan. Smith Jr. projects out to emulate the Chris Bosh mold. He turned 19-years-old this May, so I expect his first year to be tough while he tries to help right the ship in Isaac's absence. 

But, by year three or four, if Smith Jr. can reach his potential, he can alter Orlando's trend of picking underperforming long guys and make the Magic a playoff team again.

While everyone goes Holmgren or Banchero, give me Smith Jr. as the first pick in the upcoming draft.

PICK: Jabari Smith Jr. (+100 at FOX Bet) to be the first overall pick in NBA Draft

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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