National Football League

2023 Denver Broncos Over/Under win total odds, predictions, picks

Updated Aug. 31, 2023 12:23 p.m. ET

Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst

With the NFL season set to begin, FOX Sports gambling experts and NFL writers are looking at the Over/Under for every team in the league. Check back daily to see predictions on where your team will finish the regular season!

September's presence, mere days away, and the air turning crisp can only mean one thing … NFL football is back, baby!

Now that sportsbooks have dropped Over/Under win totals for every team in the league, it's time to dive into the fun and look at the numbers from a betting perspective.

Can the Denver Broncos eclipse their win total of 8.5?

Here is how our FOX Sports talent sees the Broncos' season playing out.

Pick via FOX Sports Insider Martin Rogers: Broncos Over 8.5 wins

Sean Payton, Sean Payton, Sean Payton.

There is only one storyline in town, as Denver tries to move on from the disaster of its 5-12 campaign in 2022. Payton created some waves when he indicated Russell Wilson would have less free rein during his opening press conference, but this is also the coach Wilson wanted to replace Pete Carroll in Seattle. So much depends on this relationship, and it’s hard to bet against Payton, who has shown so often that he thinks on a special kind of level when it comes to the art of winning football.

The Broncos won’t be left wondering if they could have done more in free agency, doling out deals of all sizes to a variety of players in multiple positions. Linemen Ben Powers, Zach Allen and Mike McGlinchey were the high spends, and the result is a deep squad with few gaps, which may just need a smoother quarterback flow to make it click.

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre: Broncos Over 8.5 wins

This team is extremely difficult to project, given how far Russell Wilson fell last year. If coach Sean Payton vaults him back to being a top-10 QB, are they a playoff team? They should be.

They caught some scheduling breaks, including three straight road games post-bye, but only against Houston, the Chargers and the Lions. Denver could start 3-1 before back-to-back games against Aaron Rodgers and Pat Mahomes (on a short week).

I'll grab the Over.

FOX Sports Research Nuggets

5-7-1 (Over-Under-Push) since 2010
Have won seven or fewer games in five consecutive seasons

2022 In Review

Overall: 5-12, fourth in AFC West
Home record: 4-4
Road record: 1-8
Divisional record: 1-5
Point differential: -72 (27th in NFL)
Points per game: 16.9 (32nd in NFL)
Yards per game: 325.1 (21st in NFL)
Opponent points per game: 21.1 (T-13th in NFL)
Opponent yards per game: 320.0 (seventh)

Can Chargers or Broncos challenge Chiefs for AFC West crown?

Who will win the division?

What to Know

Head Coach: Sean Payton, first season (152-89 in career as head coach)
2023 Strength of Schedule: .517 (T-13th-hardest in NFL)

Key Additions

RT Mike McGlinchey (San Francisco 49ers)
EDGE Frank Clark (Kansas City Chiefs)
TE Adam Trautman (New Orleans Saints)
DE Zach Allen (Arizona Cardinals)
G Ben Powers (Baltimore Ravens)
QB Jarrett Stidham (Las Vegas Raiders)

Key Subtractions

WR KJ Hamler
RB Latavius Murray (Buffalo Bills)
K Brandon McManus (Jacksonville Jaguars)
OT Calvin Anderson (New England Patriots)
DT Dre'Mont Jones (Seattle Seahawks)
RG Graham Glasgow (Detroit Lions)

Russell Wilson is reportedly 'on a really short leash' with Broncos

Nick Wright, Chris Broussard and Kevin Wildes discuss a report that Russell Wilson is facing immense pressure to perform this season.

Win Totals From Last 5 Years

2022: 5
2021: 7
2020: 5
2019: 7
2018: 6

Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports and the author of the FOX Sports Insider newsletter. Follow him on Twitter @MRogersFOX and subscribe to the daily newsletter.

Jason McIntyre is the co-host of The Herd and a FOX Sports gambling analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. You can find him on Twitter at @JasonRMcIntyre.